Patience is Key to Dealing With Iran's Nuclear Program
Iran's nuclear program is one of the biggest concerns the U.S. faces. However, there is still time for patience and tough negotiations as the U.S. and its partners work to keep Iran from getting the bomb, according to the latest analysis by experts at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.
Laicie Olson and Lt. Gen. Robert Gard Jr. (Ret.) of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, a Ploughshares Fund grantee, recently contributed to a roundtable entitled “Iran and the West: Next Steps.” Organized by The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the roundtable is designed as an outlet for leading Iran experts to make policy recommendations for dealing with Iran’s nuclear policy.
Olson and Gard warn that it is “crucial to take a step back and evaluate before sounding the drums.” Taking military action against Iran is ill-advised for a number of reasons, argue Olson and Gard. Past experience tells us that our intelligence regarding the extent of Iran’s nuclear complex is imperfect; therefore it would be difficult if not impossible to ensure the attack was comprehensive. Iran has also learned from previous Israeli assaults on nuclear programs in Iraq (1981) and Syria (2007) to build their key sites in hardened locations near populations centers that would be difficult to destroy. Lastly, as many experts have asserted, military force is likely to only increase the resolve of the Iranian regime to develop a nuclear weapons program.
Ultimately, "patience With Iran Is Needed for a Negotiated Solution." Luckily, according to Olson and Garb, “the math” is on our side.
Iran will not possess a meaningful nuclear threat to Israel, Turkey, or Southeastern Europe for a minimum of three years and could not threaten the U.S. and Western Europe for at least a decade if Iran does not succeed in obtaining outside assistance.
The authors remind readers that sanctions are beginning to bite, putting the U.S. in a stronger position for much needed negotiations. Indeed, in October Iran announced its willingness to return to talks with the P5+1 (a negotiating body including the U.S., Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany) after more than a year without negotiations. The talks are scheduled to begin in mid-November.
