Air Force Wants 1,000 New Nuclear Cruise Missiles

New nuclear cruise missiles - A new report by Arms Control Today indicates that the U.S. Air Force is planning to add 1,000 new air launched nuclear cruise missiles (ALCMs), nearly doubling its current inventory.

--It is unclear how the addition of nearly 1,000 new missiles fits with President Obama’s assertion that the U.S. has more strategic nuclear weapons than it currently requires. Nor is it clear how they fit within current budget guidelines for nuclear modernization, which are already $10 to $12 billion above current funding levels for nuclear forces. Full story here: http://bit.ly/1AHFsMK

Not modernizing? Really? - Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), a Republican presidential candidate, recently stated that "we are the only nation that is not modernizing its nuclear weapons."

--However, as Politifact points out, according to the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. is poised to spend $348 billion over the next decade on modernizing nuclear weapons. As Dr. Matthew Bunn, a nonproliferation expert at Harvard University points out, "while we haven’t deployed major new strategic systems in some time, we’ve been modernizing the ones we’ve got more or less continuously.” http://bit.ly/1OXgrcl

The deal and nonproliferation - Does the Iran deal, as laid out in last month’s framework agreement, set back or strengthen nonproliferation? “The greatest threat to the global nonproliferation regime is the threat of Iran getting nuclear weapons,” says Robert Einhorn. “If you believe, as I do, that this emerging deal will effectively preclude an Iranian nuclear capability for at least a decade and will put in place an effective monitoring regime to last beyond that into the future...then I think it’s a clear positive for nonproliferation.”

--Some experts disagree on the question. Given that Iran will retain a limited enrichment program under the deal, that precedent means “we’re going to have our work cut out for us if we want to keep enrichment technology from spreading in the Middle East,” said David Albright.

--Robert Einhorn, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, disagrees. “The real precedent here is of a country that paid dearly for its enrichment program, what they got for their violations are sanctions that have devastated the Iranian economy,” Einhorn says. “And they’re going to be living under a terribly intrusive regime for 10-15 years, so I’m not sure the Iranian model is going to be an enticing one for other countries.” Full story from Howard LaFranchi of The Christian Science Monitor. http://bit.ly/1Qq3SDG

Tweet - @KelseyDav: Agree with Einhorn, it supports nonproliferation: Does the #IranDeal help rein in nuclear weapons or expand them? http://bit.ly/1KlD1of

Iran bill headed for vote - A procedural vote on the Corker-Cardin bill is scheduled for 2pm today. Both Republican and Democratic Senate Leaders want to avoid controversial amendments that could risk a veto by the White House, denying Congress the opportunity created by the bill to weigh in on a final deal with Iran.

--“We were seeking an orderly way to proceed, because quite frankly this bill is critically important to our country,” Mr. Cardin said. “Let’s not lose sight of what we’re trying to achieve, and that is to block Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.” http://nyti.ms/1FRw13B

Geopolitics of Iran deal - “The only way to make a nuclear accord work in our favor is if the United States and its partners employ both intense pressure and intense engagement to set the terms for a new relationship with Iran,” write Ilan Goldenberg and Robert D. Kaplan in The National Interest.

--Crafting a comprehensive nuclear agreement is only a first step, they argue--creating a highly coordinated policy of regional engagement and communication with Iran is necessary to work with Iran in the future. http://bit.ly/1DU4xEt

Japan and the NPT - Japanese diplomats and hibakusha, survivors of the atomic bombs used at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, are playing a pivotal role in pushing for the elimination of nuclear weapons at the annual Nonproliferation Treaty Review (NPT).

--The current mayor of Hiroshima, Kazuma Matsui, says that “now is the time for policymakers to exercise leadership to begin work in creating an international environment that would make possible the elimination of nuclear weapons.” Mina Pollmann reports for The Diplomat. http://bit.ly/1F0LMo0

North Korea holding pattern - Diplomacy regarding North Korea’s nuclear weapons program remains in a holding pattern, even as North Korea has amassed as many as 20 warheads.

--However, rushing into negotiations would not necessarily be the best way to address the issue. According to a senior State Department official, “The credibility of the process is an important issue,” he said. “I think it would be a mistake for us to begin any process while the North Koreans are continuing their nuclear activities. The first step needs to be some way for them to suspend their nuclear activities at least while the negotiations are going on.” Full story from Nahal Toosi for POLITICO. http://politi.co/1EXfWIR

--See also,” Exclusive: North Korea would use nukes if 'forced,' official says,” by Will Ripley and Tim Schwarz for CNN. http://cnn.it/1JtAxnK

Quick Hits:

--“Iran releases seized Marshall Islands-flagged ship,” by Oren Dorell, USA Today. http://usat.ly/1H1DDzc

--“NATO military exercises aim to send message of resolve to Russia,” by Carol J. Williams, in The Los Angeles Times. http://lat.ms/1KlGLpT

--”What to watch out for: Defense Authorization Bill,” by Greg Terryn for Nukes of Hazard. http://bit.ly/1EkrP70

--”How America and Russia Could Start a Nuclear War,” by Tom Nichols in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1F7HHjQ

--“Tom Cotton Allies Himself with the MEK,” by Eli Clifton for LobeLog. http://bit.ly/1JSaKZT