Biden on Iran Deal: Historic Opportunity for Peaceful Solution

Biden - “After a decade of learning the limits of what war can achieve in the Middle East, we owe it to ourselves -– and to our troops -– to fully explore what is possible through diplomacy,” said Vice President Biden about the Iran deal in remarks at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s gala dinner yesterday.

--The Vice President spoke directly to some of the concerns around the Iran deal, including explaining what makes a good deal, how to ensure Iran’s compliance, and U.S. intentions to constrain Iran’s interference and aggression in the Middle East. Full transcript here (pdf). http://bit.ly/1c2iUkl

--Video here. http://bit.ly/1JFGbGt

NPT review - Despite tensions between nuclear and non-nuclear states, the 190 members to the Nonproliferation Treaty can and should take steps at the 2015 treaty review conference to strengthen the nonproliferation regime, writes Oliver Meier in a Council on Foreign Relations memo.

--Recommendations: form new alliances of middle powers “based on a shared understanding of the need for progress on nuclear disarmament”... “endorse the progress made in the P5+1 talks with Iran and encourage the International Atomic Energy Agency to strengthen its role” in verifying NPT compliance… and continue efforts toward a WMD free zone in the Middle East. http://on.cfr.org/1zu5V5I

Tall order - “For this RevCon to rediscover the spirit of 2010, what is needed is an outbreak of realism among countries without nuclear weapons—and a willingness by the P5, above all Russia, to demonstrate that they are prepared to pay more than lip-service to the vision of eventual nuclear disarmament. That may be a tall order, but, imperfect though the NPT is, most of its signatories know that keeping it alive is better than any alternative,” writes The Economist on the prospects for a “fractious, divided but still essential” NPT. http://econ.st/1I2Ws83

Senate goat rodeo - Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) and Marco Rubio (R-FL) attempted a hardball parliamentary procedure to compel the Senate to vote on a poison pill amendment to the Corker-Cardin Iran nuclear review act. The move “blindsided” Democrats who had been working through the amendment process in an attempt to pass a bipartisan bill.

--“Senators in both parties said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) would likely have to move to cut off debate on the bill after Democrats sent clear intentions to GOP leadership that they would no longer play nice on voting on GOP amendments,” reports Burgess Everett for POLITICO. http://politi.co/1Q7aSFq

See also: “How Marco Rubio Is Frustrating Both Republican and Democratic Senators” by Sean Sullivan in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1HXTksk

Tweet - @SenMurphyOffice: Senator Murphy takes to the Senate floor to talk about the #IranDeal & the power of #diplomacy https://t.co/FbahI84voU

Podcast - Jeffrey Lewis and Aaron Stein discuss the substance and politics of the Iran Nuclear Review Act of 2015 in the latest Arms Control Wonk Podcast. http://bit.ly/1IvlVGd

Blix - “If [a final Iran deal] succeeds, which I fervently hope but am not all that confident, there is a gain for all – including Israel and the Arab States," former IAEA chief Hans Blix said in recent interview. "In reverse, if it is not settled, there is an increased risk for all.” Reuters reports. http://reut.rs/1blpX6r

Time to cut MOX - A recent DOE report estimated the costs of the mixed-oxide fuel facility at $47.5 billion, a huge increase over the previous estimate. ”Now is the time for Congress to stop this nonsense,” writes Stephen Young in The Hill.

--“Cutting the MOX budget sharply—and reducing the overall nonproliferation budget that funding resides in—would assist efforts to stop the spread of nuclear material and reduce the nuclear threat.” http://bit.ly/1zjZfXo

MOX got cut - Last night the House adopted by voice vote an amendment, sponsored by Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE), to cut the appropriation for the MOX program by $13.8 million and shift the money to nonproliferation programs. See the amendment here. http://1.usa.gov/1OM0c1F

Central Asia - The U.S. Senate should ratify the protocol to the Central Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone Treaty (CANWFZ), writes Joe Cirincione for Defense One. Under the protocol, the U.S. pledges not to target or use its nuclear arsenal on treaty signatories, in return for their promise not to develop nuclear weapons or to allow international inspections of its nuclear materials. “These types of ‘negative security assurances’ have historically been an easy way for the U.S. to promote its nonproliferation objectives at little cost,” he writes.

--The Senate also has yet to ratify similar protocols for Africa and the South Pacific. Read more here: http://bit.ly/1DPa2FA

A role for Congress - “The breakdown of diplomatic negotiations, especially if seen as being caused by the United States, would be an unmitigated disaster. If the U.S. Congress undermines the talks, we lose not only the progress made in rolling back Iran's nuclear program but also the progress in staving off yet another war in the Middle East,” Lt. Gen. Robert Gard (USA, ret.) writes in Huffington Post on ways Congress can support diplomacy. http://huff.to/1JWR7fE

Russia’s bomber runs - Russia has cut back its long-range aircraft patrols near European nations, according to NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Gen. Philip Breedlove. NATO jets scrambled to intercept Russian planes four times as much in 2014 as they did the preceding year. http://bit.ly/1bJRgrJ

Quick Hits:

--“White House Looks to Ease Arab Fears Over Iran Nuclear Pact” by Helene Cooper for The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1zyEtUj

--“Israel Blames Arab Neighbors for Stalling on Nuke-Free Zone” by Cara Anna for AP. http://abcn.ws/1HXUCUm

Events:

--"From Nuclear Deterrence to Disarmament: Evolving Catholic Perspectives," featuring Desmond Browne, Rev. Bryan Hehir, Rev. Antoine Abi Ghanem and Maryann Cusimano Love. May 7th from 6:00-8:00pm, Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs (170 E. 64th St., New York). RSVP here using the promotional code ND5715: http://bit.ly/1AgdCqG

--Arms Control Association annual meeting, featuring keynotes Alexander Kmett, Austrian Director of Arms Control, Nonproliferation and Disarmament, and Colin Kahl, National Security Advisor to Vice President. May 14th from 9:00am-2:30pm at Carnegie. http://bit.ly/1dsD8V0

--”Deterrent Options for the Future,” remarks by Linton Brooks, former NNSA Administrator, at the Huessy Congressional breakfast Series. May 19th from 8:00am-9:00am at the Capitol Hill Club. http://conta.cc/1DKftpf

--“An Iran Nuclear Deal: Too Big to Fail?” Featuring Peter Beinart, Suzanne DiMaggio, Ali Vaez and Fred Kaplan. May 11th from 6:30-8:15pm at Civic Hall in New York. http://bit.ly/1JehLk5