Sequencing Sanctions and an Iran Nuclear Deal

Sanctions - “Iran will receive relief from UN, EU, and U.S. sanctions only after it verifiably completes major nuclear-related steps,” said Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew at a recent event.

--“Our international partners are united in the view that we must be able to reimpose multilateral sanctions on Iran if it breaches the restrictions on its nuclear program… we have made it abundantly clear that if Iran breaks its commitment, it will face once again the full force of the multilateral sanctions regime.”

--“We are under no illusions that Iran will all of a sudden stop providing significant support to dangerous actors like Hizballah and the Assad regime — and so we will remain vigilant in our efforts to combat those activities. Make no mistake: deal or no deal, we will continue to use all our available tools, including sanctions, to counter Iran’s menacing behavior.” Full remarks here. http://1.usa.gov/1JkXWrx

Poison pill party ends - Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is expected to wrap up consideration of the Corker-Cardin Iran review act, closing off opportunities to amend the bill after Sens. Tom Cotton (R-AR) and Marco Rubio (R-FL) tried to spike the legislation with poison pill amendments that could have doomed the bipartisan bill.

--“I would like to have seen more amendments. But in light of the circumstances, that route is now unfortunately over,” said Sen. Corker (R-TN). http://politi.co/1KGTB2G

Wasteful spending - U.S. Reps Mike Quigley (D-IL) and Jared Polis (D-CO) offered an amendment to the FY2016 Energy & Water Appropriations Bill that would have saved $167 million by delaying the new nuclear-armed cruise missile warhead.

--“In this budget environment, every dollar we spend to keep our outdated and oversized nuclear arsenal functioning is a dollar we aren’t spending on other priorities that keep us safe and secure or on reducing our unsustainable debt and deficits,” said Rep. Quigley.

--“This nuclear weapons program is a relic of the past, built for a Cold War-era that we are far removed from,” said Rep. Polis. “Instead of spending limited resources on outdated weapons systems, we should focus these resources on what actually keeps us safe.” Full press release. http://1.usa.gov/1AuAov5

--See the video and transcript of Rep. Quigley’s speech. http://1.usa.gov/1IaxLGE

Backgrounder - “Worldwide Nuclear Weapon Modernization Programs.” Presentation by Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists. April 28th, 2015. Full slidedeck. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1JLOh0s

Tweet - @globlalzero: We're all sitting ducks unless we take nuclear weapons off hair-trigger alert @UN #NPT2015 #GZAction. [photos] http://bit.ly/1GUEL7F

Stick with New START - Some in the Senate, including Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), are pressing the administration to re-evaluate its position on the New START treaty. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, commander of U.S. European Command and NATO supreme allied commander, says that’s a bad idea.

--At a Senate hearing last week, the general said the U.S. needs to continue plans to reduce nuclear weapons under New START, despite the instability created in Europe by recent Russian aggression, Brian Everstine reports for the Air Force Times. http://bit.ly/1Qf0iw6

Tweet - @mattduss: Iran’s Failed Foreign Policy: Dealing from a Position of Weakness. Reality check from @MiddleEastInst’s Thomas Juneau. (pdf) http://t.co/jX2gcCY1fS

Iran & Syria - In the aftermath of a successful framework agreement between the P5+1 nations and Iran over its nuclear program, some hope that the rapprochement in relations could lead to Iran playing a positive role in ending Syria’s civil war.

--While most European and American diplomats have maintained that the issues are separate, the E.U.’s top diplomat, Frederica Mogherini, suggested that the nuclear agreement could cause Iran to play “a major but positive role in Syria.” http://nyti.ms/1E9OzX0

Tweet - @FareedZakaria: How does Iran's public feel about nuclear deal? @ThomasErdbrink with his take. Full interview Sunday 10a/1p ET on CNN. http://t.co/JxErAckDPj

After collapse - In the event of North Korea’s political collapse, securing its numerous secret nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons sites “could prove to be one of the hardest challenges facing the United States and South Korea,” writes SAIS research fellow Robert Peters for The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1bs2DEg

Tweet - @SchwartzCNS: "Pull down the shades or blinds and close the drapes against flying glass." - Advice in 1951 US civil defense film. http://bit.ly/1Qf78Sk

Quick Hits:

--“Will Obama Refight Reagan’s War with Iran?” by David Crist in Politico Magazine. http://politi.co/1ERzHRZ

--“Lawmakers urge Obama to stop Russian missile system sale to Iran” from The Hill. http://bit.ly/1E09oVU

--“Youth to demonstrate in Oak Ridge, say ‘no’ to ‘bomb plant’” from Oak Ridge Today. http://bit.ly/1KCs6rf

--“Hiroshima, Nagasaki mayors step up calls for elimination of nuclear weapons” from The Asahi Shimbun. http://bit.ly/1cd8IFM

--“Kerry 'guarantees' Israelis that US can prevent an Iranian bomb” from the AP. http://bit.ly/1KFDzGi

--“Gulf States Want U.S. Assurances and Weapons in Exchange for Supporting Iran Nuclear Deal” from The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1DS8MBI

Events:

--"From Nuclear Deterrence to Disarmament: Evolving Catholic Perspectives," featuring Desmond Browne, Rev. Bryan Hehir, Rev. Antoine Abi Ghanem and Maryann Cusimano Love. May 7th from 6:00-8:00pm, Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs (170 E. 64th St., New York). RSVP here using the promotional code ND5715: http://bit.ly/1AgdCqG

--“An Iran Nuclear Deal: Too Big to Fail?” Featuring Peter Beinart, Suzanne DiMaggio, Ali Vaez and Fred Kaplan. May 11th from 6:30-8:15pm at Civic Hall in New York. http://bit.ly/1JehLk5

--Arms Control Association annual meeting, featuring keynotes Alexander Kmett, Austrian Director of Arms Control, Nonproliferation and Disarmament, and Colin Kahl, National Security Advisor to Vice President. May 14th from 9:00-2:30pm at Carnegie. http://bit.ly/1dsD8V0

--”Deterrent Options for the Future,” remarks by Linton Brooks, former NNSA Administrator, at the Huessy Congressional breakfast Series. May 19th from 8:00-9:00am at the Capitol Hill Club. http://conta.cc/1DKftpf

--“Bursting the Plutonium Bubble: How Utopian Communities Made Dystopian Nuclear Landscapes” featuring historian Kate Brown. May 18th from 4:00-5:00pm at the Wilson Center. http://bit.ly/1FKAPHT