Brought to the Brink of Nuclear Disaster

Close encounter of the nuclear kind - On October 28, 1962, at the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Capt. William Bassett received an erroneous radio transmission to launch nuclear missiles under his command from a secret Okinawa missile site. “Only recently has the US Air Force given [Former Air Force airman John Bordne]… permission to tell the tale, which, if borne out as true, would constitute a terrifying addition to the lengthy and already frightening list of mistakes and malfunctions that have nearly plunged the world into nuclear war,” writes Aaron Tovish.

--“Only caution and the common sense and decisive action of the line personnel receiving those orders prevented the launches—and averted the nuclear war that most likely would have ensued. Bordne's account would add appreciably to historical understanding, not just of the Cuban crisis, but of the role accident or miscalculation have played and continue to play in the Nuclear Age.” Read the full story at Bulletin of Atomic Scientists here. http://bit.ly/1jM2tg1

Israeli advisory panel supports Iran deal - “In defense establishment discussions of the Iranian nuclear agreement, Israel’s Atomic Energy Commission,... has endorsed the pact, a source familiar with the commission’s stance told Haaretz. The panel’s position runs directly counter to that of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, cabinet ministers and most of the political opposition”, writes Chaim Levinson. “The commission’s members say they are convinced that the April 2 agreement between Iran and the world powers will prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb.”

--“In recent years these experts have been analyzing information about Iran’s nuclear project, and estimating how far away the Islamic Republic was from developing a bomb… In defense establishment discussions, the commission’s members stressed their satisfaction with the changes made in the nuclear reactor in Arak, a heavy-water reactor similar to the one in Dimona, in which Iran is trying to produce plutonium for the purpose of assembling a nuclear warhead”. Get full story here. http://bit.ly/1O56w3D

Tweet - @FMWG: Plenty of inertia in the #CTBT fight that lies ahead.. With good insights from @KingstonAReif, @AaronMehta ow.ly/TQwqz

Trident’s rocketing costs - “The overall cost of replacing and maintaining Britain's nuclear deterrent will reach 167 billion pounds ($256 billion), much more than expected, according to a lawmaker's and Reuters' calculations based on official figures… Some military officials also oppose investment in Trident, saying the money would be better spent on maintaining the army and on more conventional technology, which have also faced cuts”, writes Elizabeth Piper.

--“The new figures tally with comments this month by Jon Thompson, the top civil servant at the Ministry of Defence, when he described the project to replace the nuclear deterrent as a ‘monster’... A final decision on replacing the existing vessels carrying the Trident missiles -- four Vanguard-class submarines -- is due next year and Cameron says he will press ahead with the renewal.” Read the full story here. http://reut.rs/1R6GGdp

Your bunker won’t save you - “American and EU policy-makers who are pushing ahead with the modernization of NATO’s nuclear arsenal in Europe must be aware that even the most secured underground facility will not save them if a global nuclear conflict erupts, Canadian scientist Dr. Stoyan Sarg notes... The Pentagon is currently beefing up NATO's nuclear stockpiles in Europe, by replacing old warheads with the new B61-12 thermonuclear bombs… prompting growing concerns in Europe and beyond,” reports Sputnik.

--“With the new NATO plan for installation of nuclear tactical weapons in Europe, nuclear missiles may reach Moscow in only 6 minutes… How can we be sure that this will not be triggered by human error or a computer malfunction,” noted Dr. Sarg in Foreign Policy Journal... “The most probable consequence will be a partial loss of the Earth's atmosphere as a result of one or many powerful simultaneous tornadoes caused by the nuclear explosions,” he warned. Get the full story here. http://bit.ly/1WfWID5

Tweet - @WashTimes: North Korea shows no signs it wants to talk about giving up its nuclear arsenal: #IranDeal http://bit.ly/1NyevmO

Where to next with Iran? - “Over the next few months, if all goes well, Iran will do what few countries have done. Peacefully and without the compulsion of an occupying force, Iranian engineers will rip out and destroy major portions of a nuclear complex Iran spent billions to build… Iranians will pull out two-thirds of their uranium-enriching centrifuges. They will ship out of the country almost all their stockpile of enriched uranium material that could be used to build a bomb”, writes Joe Cirincione in the Journal Sentinel.

--“[Hillary Clinton] fully embraces the agreement as a major national security achievement. But that is as far as she goes. ‘This isn't the start of some broader diplomatic opening,’ she said in a recent speech… [Obama proclaimed], ‘The Iran agreement is proof of the superiority of realistic diplomacy. If this deal is fully implemented, the prohibition on nuclear weapons is strengthened, a potential war is averted, our world is safer. That is the strength of the international system when it works the way it should.’” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1MQKoEo

Tweet - @CSIS: New evidence suggests ISIS could have access to nuclear material originating from Moldova: http://bit.ly/1ZR98WD

False alarm - “A [November 1983 NATO] nuclear weapons command exercise… prompted fear in the leadership of the Soviet Union that the maneuvers were a cover for a nuclear surprise attack by the United States, triggering a series of unparalleled Soviet military re­sponses, according to a top-secret U.S. intelligence review that has just been declassified. ‘In 1983, we may have inadvertently placed our relations with the Soviet Union on a hair trigger,” the review concluded.’” Read the full story at The Washington Post here. http://wapo.st/1jGAa2H

Quick Hits:

--“Islamabad moves closer to total disclosure over nuclear weapons,” by Tom Hussein for The National. http://bit.ly/1KCKca6

--“The Obama team eyes another nuclear gamble,” by Bryan Bender for Politico. http://politi.co/1kHEXRF

--“The new nuclear war threat in US-China ties,” by Hugh White for The Straits Times. http://bit.ly/1S7E5Ri

Events:

--“Prevention of and Response to the Arrival of a Dirty Bomb at a U.S. Port”, hearing by House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation. Tuesday, October 27th at 10:00 AM. Webcast on committee site here. http://1.usa.gov/1Moxnl8

--“Think Nuclear-Free Symposium! The Nuclear-Free Future Award”, sponsored by Green Cross International and the Heinrich Böll Foundation Washington. Thursday, October 29th from 11:00 AM - 5:00 PM at Goethe-Institut Washington, 812 7th St. NW, Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1P0wMfy

--“Reliving History: A Retrospective Trident”, featuring Rebecca Hersman and Franklin Miller. Wednesday, November 4th from 5:00 - 7:30 PM at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Second Floor B Room, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1VUkedS

--“Nuclear Detonation Effects in an Urban Area”, featuring John Mercier. Tuesday, November 10th from 12:00 - 1:30 PM at the Department of Science and Technology in Society at Virginia Tech, Virginia Tech Research Center, 900 N. Glebe Rd., Arlington, VA. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1KXP39b

--“Stimson Debate: Nuclear Weapons and International Stability”, featuring Ward Wilson and Elbridge Colby. Thursday, November 12th from 12:30 - 1:30 PM at the Stimson Center, 8th Floor, 1211 Connecticut Ave, NW, Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1GGdWaM