A Budget-Busting Nuclear Upgrade

On the radar: B61 and nuclear profligacy; Nukes part of budget scrub; Cooperation and its spoilers; How to handle sanctions; Missileers off the bench; and K-25 was really big.

May 28, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

“Throwing Money at Nukes” - The U.S. is set to spend over $10 billion to upgrade its B61 tactical nuclear weapons, a costly decision that “is at odds” with the President’s nuclear policy and “send[s] the wrong signal while Mr. Obama is trying to draw Russia into a new round of nuclear reduction talks,” writes The New York Times editorial board.

--The B61 and the rest of the administration’s nuclear spending spree has roots in a bargain with Senate Republicans on the New START treaty. “It is a mystery why he would feel bound by this commitment at a time when limited dollars should be directed toward real needs, and when Republicans have obstructed him at every turn on those needs,” writes The Times. http://nyti.ms/1102POy

Budget scrubbing - A new Pentagon budget review may no longer protect nuclear weapons from budget cuts. What’s on the chopping block? The Air Force’s new bomber and proposed ICBMs are likely candidates.

--Despite possible cuts to the arsenal, the ballistic missile submarine replacement program is “relatively safe from the cost-cutting axe,” said one senior defense official. Elaine Grossman of Global Security Newswire has the story. http://owl.li/lsO5Q

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Room for cooperation - When the U.S. cancelled the SM-3 block IIB missile defense interceptor, it simultaneously deflated Russia’s biggest objection to missile defense cooperation. This, plus the reality that U.S. missile defenses present no capability to undermine Russia’s deterrent, “should open the way to a legally binding U.S.-Russian agreement for the regular exchange of information on missile defense programs,” writes Daryl Kimball in The Moscow Times.

--”Such an agreement should also be accompanied by a joint presidential statement providing clear assurances that the two countries' missile interceptor programs do not threaten each other's security. Such a deal would provide Putin and Obama with a win-win deal that protects each nation's security by enhancing strategic stability.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/12LB3YJ

Spoiler - Russia has rebuffed a series of recent U.S. overtures on missile defense cooperation and continues to assert that U.S. missile defenses undermine its deterrent. Explaining away “ all the bluster and spoiling,” Alexander Golts argues “Russia's top brass has not made a single concrete proposal for cooperation. They are determined to obstruct the West, not cooperate with it. What's more, even if the West were to comply with all of Russia's demands — including the most unreasonable ones — Moscow would certainly announce a new set of demands shortly thereafter.” Full article in The Moscow Times. http://bit.ly/10Ev0Uf

--The accompanying comic fully explains the situation. http://bit.ly/1auy0ac

Tweet - @NTI_GSN: Russia Insists Next Round of Arms Control Talks be Multilateral. bit.ly/ZqDm6J

Sticks into carrots - Sanctions have worsened Iran’s economic misery, yet “ a sanctions strategy will work only if Iran can be promised the penalties will end if its policies change,” writes Bloomberg in an editorial.

--After Iran’s presidential election, the P5+1 “ought to propose an action-for-action road map, laying out all the sanctions they would lift in exchange for all the nuclear concessions they want from Iran. The Westerners should state from the outset that once Iran is in full compliance, they will accept its limited right to enrich uranium...Once that’s removed, the two sides can negotiate the order and magnitude of reciprocal actions.” Full article here. http://bloom.bg/12LzdqF

Sticks’ marginal utility - Sanctions have done little to curb Iran’s nuclear program, its doubtful adding new stricter sanctions will convince Tehran to reverse course, say high-level former officials now with the Iran project. Instead, “Obama should step up diplomacy.” A diplomatic approach, however, could be complicated by legislation being considered in Congress that “could seek to impose a near total trade embargo on Iran” if passed. Paul Richter of The Los Angeles Times has the story. http://owl.li/lsJFL

More sticks, eventually carrot - Arguing for stronger “coercive diplomacy” and tighter timelines, Dennis Ross and David Makovsky suggest the U.S. should lay out for Iran a “nuclear endgame” where it accepts strict limits on centrifuges, levels of enrichment and amount of uranium stored in Iran.

--“Clearly, if Iran is prepared to alter its nuclear program in this fashion, we should be prepared to lift the harsh economic sanctions. But the Iranians cannot get the latter unless they do the former,” they write. Op-ed in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/130t3oq

Back in the silo - Four of the 19 missileers suspended from their ICBM launch duties after a failed inspection have been reinstated. “The others are progressing very well in the retraining program,” said Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Welsh in a recent press conference. Brendan McGarry at DoD Buzz has the story. http://owl.li/lsMuF

Events:

--"Nuclear Terrorism: What’s at Stake?" Jay Cohen, David Waller, Stephen Flynn, Stanton Sloane. May 29 8:00-9:30 am. American Security Project. 1100 New York Ave, NW, Seventh Floor, West Tower. Details here. http://owl.li/lcEuT

--”The Kaleidoscope Turns Again in a Crisis-Challenged Iran,” Yasmin Alem and Suzanne Maloney, moderated by Barbara Slavin. May 30, 12:00-1:30 pm @ The Atlantic Council. Details here. http://owl.li/l8cYq

--”Ballistic Missile Defense- Technical, Strategic and Arms Control Challenges.” Discussion with Phil Coyle, George Lewis and Bruce MacDonald, Pierce Corden and Charles Ferguson to moderate. June 6th from 4:45-7:00pm at AAAS, reception to follow. Details here. http://bit.ly/188gZ90

--House Armed Services Committee, markup of the defense authorization bill, H.R. 1960, which includes the nuclear weapons and nuclear nonproliferation programs of NNSA. June 5, 10:00 am. Webcast here. http://owl.li/lsGRO

--Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense, hearing on the Missile Defense Agency budget, with Vice Adm. James Syring, Director, Missile Defense Agency. June 5, 10:00 am. Webcast here. http://owl.li/lsHgp

--"Missiles in South Asia: Deterrence Stability on the Subcontinent.” Rob Williams and Dinshaw Mistry. June 5 12:30-2:30 pm @ Stimson Center. Details here. http://owl.li/lsHBz

Dessert:

Tweet - @CNN: Would you take a ski trip to North Korea? http://on.cnn.com/141PuqS

Big building - The K-25 gaseous diffusion plant was the single most expensive part of the Manhattan Project and, supposedly, the largest single factory in the world. How big was it? Alex Wellerstein at Restricted Data compares the K-25 plant to the Pentagon or Central Park and uncovers pictures from inside the plant. http://bit.ly/130yzap