China Adds Multiple Warhead Capability to ICBM

China MIRV - The Pentagon’s latest annual report (pdf) on Chinese military power notes that China has fielded a multiple independently-targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV)-equipped missile system. “For China to join the MIRV club strains China’s claim of having a minimum nuclear deterrent. It is another worrisome sign that China – like the other nuclear-armed states – are trapped in a dynamic technological nuclear arms competition,” writes Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists.

--“Essentially, MIRV allows a much more rapid increase of a nuclear arsenal than single-warhead missile,” writes Kristensen. “To its credit, the Chinese nuclear arsenal is still much smaller than that of Russia and the United States. So this is not about a massive Chinese nuclear buildup. Yet the development underscores that a technological nuclear competition among the nuclear-armed states is in full swing.” Full post here. http://bit.ly/1PEhYz9

North Korea’s ballistic bluster - North Korea’s recent test of a submarine launched ballistic missile made for an excellent photo op, but it won’t make an effective weapon to threaten the U.S., writes Joe Cirincione in Defense One.

--“Kim Jong Un would be much better off having FedEx deliver the warhead,” Cirincione quips. “That, at least, would ensure it would get there within three days.” Read more here: http://bit.ly/1QJeiyz

House NDAA - The White House issued its warning yesterday that, if the House’s current version of the FY16 National Defense Authorization Act for were presented to the President, his advisors would recommend a veto.

--OMB’s Statement of Administration Policy flags a few nuclear-related items in the House defense bill:
--Iran: The administration objects to language in the bill that “will likely undermine our negotiating team as they work with our international partners to achieve a long-term, comprehensive deal that prevents Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.”
--Missile Defense: The administration objects to language in the bill to provide anti-air capability to Aegis Ashore assets in Poland and Romania and another section authorizing an East Coast missile defense site.
--MOX: The administration objects to language in the bill that would rush construction of the troubled Mixed Oxide Fuel Fabrication Facility.
--Dismantlement: The administration objects to language in the bill that would limit funding for nuclear weapons dismantlement and restrict the administration’s ability to adjust the nuclear stockpile.

--Full SAP available here. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1L22CUj

Real lessons from North Korea - “What are the real lessons from the US-North Korea deal? And why is Iran not North Korea?” asks Scott Peterson of The Christian Science Monitor.

--Peterson runs the comparison, talking to experts involved in the 1994 North Korea deal, with conclusions on the effectiveness of the deals, the importance of follow through, and the need to allow both sides “to maintain leverage against the other, while also giving sufficient measures to reassure each other, and mutual incentives to stick with it.” Full article here: http://bit.ly/1IB1Y0k

Tweet - @WinWithout War: "This is the do-or-die moment for diplomacy with #Iran" http://bit.ly/1E5BEFj @NIACouncil #IranTalks

Gulf states summit - In advance of a two-day summit with senior officials from Gulf states, President Obama promised that a nuclear deal with Iran would not prevent the U.S. from remaining “vigilant against Iran’s other reckless behavior,” Michael D. Shear reports for The New York Times.

--President Obama submitted responses to the pan-Arab newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat regarding the Iran deal. “We’ve continued to fully enforce sanctions against Iran for its support of terrorism and its ballistic missile program — and we will enforce these sanctions going forward, even if we reach a nuclear deal with Iran,” he wrote. http://nyti.ms/1A0cNYE

House Iran bill update - House Republican leaders are unlikely to allow amendments that could jeopardize passage of the Iran bill, Jake Sherman and Lauren French report for Politico. Sources close to leadership report that the decision not to allow amendments is final and that a vote on the Iran bill could follow as early as Thursday. http://politi.co/1ECfTP3

Navy’s “top nuke” is new CNO - Admiral John Richardson, the U.S. Navy’s current head of nuclear reactors, is expected to be named Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) today, according to David Larter at The Navy Times.

--Adm. Richardson will likely be a strong advocate for the next class of ballistic missile submarines, whose enormous costs are threatening the Navy’s conventional ships. http://bit.ly/1bPpI3V

Iran has politics too - “A bill demanding that Iran suspend nuclear talks with the United States until US officials cease making military threats against Iran was presented to the Iranian parliament May 12. The bill has faced a backlash, however, with some members of parliament claiming that they were misled about the nature and content of the bill,” reports Arash Karami for Al-Monitor.

--One Iranian MP, Mohsen Biglari, stated that “the majority who signed the bill have protested against the actions of the creators of the bill," adding, “I completely support the nuclear negotiations and its continuation.” Read more here: http://bit.ly/1cTnTUU

Quick Hits:

--“Looking Forward, Nuclear Proliferation is Still Greatest Threat We Face,” by Valerie Plame Wilson for The Huffington Post.http://huff.to/1IxIhba

--“The White House Sanctions Relief Toolbox,” by Tyler Cullis for Just Security.http://bit.ly/1cwHpG2

--“Use Of Nuclear Weapons Outlines New Age In Earth's Geological History,” by Robin Burks for Tech Times. http://bit.ly/1HaQyyG

--“AP Interview: UN nuke agency head, Iranian officials differ,” by George Jahn. http://wapo.st/1H3pIpJ

Events:

--Arms Control Association annual meeting, featuring keynotes Alexander Kmett, Austrian Director of Arms Control, Nonproliferation and Disarmament, and Colin Kahl, National Security Advisor to the Vice President. May 14th from 9:00-2:30pm at Carnegie. http://bit.ly/1dsD8V0

--P5+1 and Iran continue negotiations on an agreement on Iran's nuclear program. May 15th, Vienna.

--“Travels with John Kerry: the Lausanne Accord with Iran and its Implications for the Middle East,” featuring Michael Gordon of The New York Times. May 18th from 12:15-1:45pm, Harvard University, Belfer Center Library. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1E2c6ci

--“Bursting the Plutonium Bubble: How Utopian Communities Made Dystopian Nuclear Landscapes,” featuring historian Kate Brown. May 18th from 4:00-5:00pm at the Wilson Center. http://bit.ly/1FKAPHT

--“Deterrent Options for the Future,” remarks by Linton Brooks, former NNSA Administrator, at the Huessy Congressional breakfast series. May 19th from 8:00-9:00am at the Capitol Hill Club. http://conta.cc/1DKftpf