Iran Paused Nuclear Program, Shows IAEA Report

On the radar: New IAEA report; Obama on negotiations; Sen. Feinstein says pause sanctions; Adm. Cecil Haney, CINC US STRATCOM; CBO sees $50 billion in potential nuclear savings; Air Force sees $1 billion in missile spending; and One last container from Russia to Paducah.

November 15, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Geoff Wilson

Essentially halted - “Iran's new government has slowed expansion of its nuclear program almost to a halt since August...in what experts view as a strong signal of Tehran's desire to resolve a decade-long diplomatic standoff,” says Paul Richter of the Los Angeles Times about the latest IAEA report on Iran’s program. The report “provides the first independent evidence that President Hassan Rouhani, who was elected in June after promising to end the crisis, has essentially stopped new work at Iran's nuclear facilities, including enrichment of uranium and construction of the heavy-water reactor at Arak.” Full story here. http://lat.ms/18AsulC

Analysis - “Iran has made a political decision to pause the expansion of its enrichment capabilities,” according an Arms Control Association analysis of the new IAEA report. Since August, “Iran’s installation of centrifuges at its two safeguarded enrichment facilities, Natanz and Fordow, was virtually nonexistent,” marking a significant change from past developments. Moreover, Iran’s stockpile of 20% enriched uranium only slightly increased to 196 kilograms and remains less than a bomb’s worth.

--Highlights: Production of 20% enriched uranium slowed dramatically; Iran installed only 4 new IR-1 centrifuges and halted installation of IR-2M centrifuges; No installation of major components at the Arak reactor, though construction continues. Full analysis by Kelsey Davenport, Daryl Kimball and Greg Thielmann at Arms Control Now. http://bit.ly/HTgOEd

The report - “Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and Relevant Provision of the Security Council Resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Report by the IAEA Board of Governors. November 14, 2013. (pdf) http://bit.ly/I41B2G

Welcome to Early Warning - Subscribe to our morning email or follow us on twitter.

--Have a tip or feedback for the editor? Email earlywarning@ploughshares.org earlywarning@ploughshares.org. Want to support this work? Click here.

POTUS - “If we’re serious about pursuing diplomacy, then there is no need for us to add new sanctions on top of the sanctions that are already very effective and that brought them in table in the first place. Now, if it turns out they can’t deliver, they can’t come to the table in a serious way and get this issue resolved, the sanctions can be ramped back up,” said President Obama, outlining his case for testing Iran, not passing additional sanctions and pursuing a diplomatic solution that keeps Iran from the bomb.

--The diplomatic option is the preferred course “because any armed conflict has costs to it, but it’s also my preference because the best way to assure that a country does not have nuclear weapons is that they are making a decision not to have nuclear weapons and we are in a position to verify that they don’t have nuclear weapons,” said the President. http://on.wsj.com/1cwIsQv

Sen. Feinstein - “I am baffled by the insistence of some senators to undermine the P5+1 talks. I will continue to support these negotiations and oppose any new sanctions as long as we are making progress toward a genuine solution,” said Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) about the ongoing push to pass new sanctions on Iran. http://1.usa.gov/1j9FN1r

Tweet - @PentagonPresSec: #SecDef travels to @US_Stratcom today to preside over a change of command ceremony. Congrats to outgoing/incoming commanders Kehler & Haney.

Budget savings options - With Congress struggling to reduce the deficit, the Congressional Budget Office lays out two options that would cut nuclear weapons spending and save nearly $50 billion over the next ten years.

--Option 1 ($15.7 billion saved): Reduce the Navy’s nuclear-armed submarine force to eight subs in 2020, delay building replacement subs and buy fewer of them. "With an eight-boat Ohio class force called for under this option, the Navy could still deploy roughly the maximum number of warheads at sea consistent with New START," writes CBO. (p. 68)

--Option 2 ($32.1 billion saved): Defer development of a new long-range bomber by ten years. "Even with a 10-year delay, a new bomber would still be available by about the time today’s bombers are nearing the end of their service life," writes CBO. (p. 72)

--Full report: ”Options for Reducing the Deficit: 2014 to 2023” by the Congressional Budget Office. November, 2013. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1hLDp5u

If you only read one thing on negotiations - Based on all the media hubbub after the latest negotiations with Iran, one might think negotiations were collapsing. “The reality is more tame,” writes Bob Einhorn. “The difficulties of managing a highly complex negotiation involving several independent and strong-willed countries in a compressed period of time became apparent. So, while making very impressive progress in just a few days, the talks could not quite come to closure. There will be another opportunity to do so in a week's time.”

--Einhorn explains why negotiators could not seal the deal, France’s overblown role, the outlook for Congress, the posturing coming out of Israel and why it’s in everyone’s interest to quickly achieve a good deal. Full post at Brookings. http://bit.ly/17tI4PW

Backgrounder - “Five key questions — and answers — about the nuclear talks with Iran.” Q&A with Steve Fetter and The Washington Post’s “Monkey Cage.” http://wapo.st/I3QZka

About Arak - “Arak Reactor Should Be Key to Iran Deal” by Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment. http://ceip.org/HYHO4s

New cruise missile - The Air Force is pushing ahead with its plan to build a new air-launched cruise missile. The missile, dubbed the Long Range Strike Ordinance (LRSO), expects to enter into the technology development phase in summer 2014. The Air Force is already meeting with defense industry representatives to prepare to solicit bids on the contract.

--The LRSO is expected to be nuclear capable and deployable on the B-52 and - creating a new standoff, stealth, nuclear capability - would also be deployable on the B-2. The Air Force plans to spend $1 billion developing the new cruise missile over the next five years. Inside Defense has the story (wedged behind a paywall). http://bit.ly/17yF3Dj

Air Force perspective - “Five Propositions Regarding Nuclear Weapons” by Lt. Col. Charles McElvaine. http://1.usa.gov/1actS1G

Hold the Line - “Israel and Saudi Arabia, the strongest U.S. allies in the Middle East, are maddened by the efforts of President Barack Obama’s administration to reach a diplomatic settlement on Iran’s nuclear program. This disagreement is unfortunate, but the White House shouldn’t be deflected,” writes Bloomberg in an editorial. “The U.S. should listen to its allies, but it cannot have its policies dictated by them.” Full article here.http://bloom.bg/1cZCaOi

Elements of a deal - “What Iran nuclear accord should look like” by Michael O’Hanlon in USA Today. http://usat.ly/1ctygIq

Megatons now megawatts - “Take a canister, fill it with down-blended uranium worth $2.5 million, secure it and 39 others to the deck of a container ship, send it off toward Baltimore, and you’ve just about completed a deal that provided commercial uses in the United States for the remains of 20,000 dismantled Russian nuclear bombs,” writes Will Englund on witnessing the end of the celebrated Megatons to Megawatts program. Full article in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1e89vn8

Events:

--”Flawed Logics: Strategic Nuclear Arms Control from Truman to Obama.” Discussion with James Lebovic at George Washington University, Linder Family Commons, Room 602, 1957 E St. NW. Nov. 20th at 1:30pm. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/HNBBsK

--”Rethinking U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy.” Discussion with Benjamin Friedman, Christopher Preble, and Laura Odato at B-369 Rayburn House Office Building. Nov. 25th at 12:00pm. http://bit.ly/1bVpEKg

Dessert:

Head scratcher - In its sales job for the $11 billion B-61 nuclear bomb upgrade, the Air Force is jerry-rigging some kind of equivalence between the B83 bomb and the B61 bomb, saying the B61 plans make more sense for them.

--It’s like comparing basketballs to oranges. The B83 is a 1.2 megaton, strategic, city busting bomb that is now entering into retirement. The B61-12 bomb would be a 0.3-340 kiloton, tactical/strategic bomb that the Air Force wants to keep around for a while. But the clunkiness of the comparison does not prevent Air Force Magazine from attempting it in this article. http://bit.ly/1cwyezA