Iran Talks: Intense Discussion, No Breakthrough

On the radar: Almaty after-action; Sec. Kerry on New START; Responses on the peninsula; China’s reaction; North restarting plutonium plants; Securing loose material, 4 years later; In memoriam; a History lesson; and Kim’s latest music video.

April 8, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Iran talks - Two days of nuclear talks between Iran and six world powers concluded without a deal or an agreement on a future meeting. “There may not have been a breakthrough, but there was also not a breakdown...we all really need to absorb and digest what we’ve heard,” commented one senior US official after the talks.

--”The talks were unprecedented in both their intensity and depth, say officials from both sides, and even included a direct 30- to 40-minute exchange between the top American and top Iranian diplomats across the negotiating table. Yet instead of narrowing a chasm that has bedeviled [negotiators]...this round appeared to illustrate like never before the magnitude of the diplomatic challenge ahead,” writes Scott Peterson for The Christian Science Monitor. http://bit.ly/YFZ8kJ

New START’s record - “Through the last two-plus years since the treaty entered into force, despite any of the alarm bells treaty foes may have rung, the treaty is working -- exactly as advertised...New START is maintaining stability and predictability between the world's largest nuclear powers, as we promised,” writes Secretary of State John Kerry in Foreign Policy.

--”When signing New START three years ago in Prague, President Obama made it clear he intended to seek further reductions in all types of nuclear weapons: strategic and nonstrategic, deployed and non-deployed. We will follow through on this goal in a deliberate, step-by step manner, proactively consulting with Capitol Hill, talking with our allies and engaging Russia on future negotiations. To be clear: reducing nuclear weapons is not an end in and of itself, but a means toward creating a safer and more stable world.” http://goo.gl/QDs75

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Tweet - @carnegienpp: Tune in tomorrow & follow @tkassenova @MarkHibbsCEIP @sinanulgen1 for live updates from our conference! #nukefest2013 http://t.co/5SNngtqiot

Atmospherics - “To put it in a nutshell, our role is very simple and very modest...We have to prepare a nice coffee and nice tea, for the parties to be happy and have a really good atmosphere to work and focus on the issues of substance,” quipped Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Erlan Idrissov about his country’s role in hosting talks with Iran. The New York Times has the quote. http://nyti.ms/10xZk51

Missile test scrapped - “Amid mounting tensions with North Korea, the Pentagon has delayed an intercontinental ballistic missile test that had been planned for next week at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California,” reports AP. http://fxn.ws/YFlFOC

Response plans - The U.S. and South Korea have drawn up a new plan to respond to North Korean threats which is designed to de-escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The new agreement, which was completed on Sunday, “defines action down to the tactical level and locks in alliance political consultations at the highest level,” said a U.S. official.

--The “new ‘counter-provocation’ plan calls for an immediate but proportional ‘response in kind.” If Pyongyang were to launch a missile and it appears to be heading for South Korea, Japan, Guam, or any U.S. territory, then the U.S. will shoot it down. President Obama has ruled out a preemptive strike to destroy North Korean missiles unless there’s evidence that they are being fitted with nuclear warheads - technology its doubtful North Korea possesses, report David Sanger and Thom Shanker of The New York Times. Full story here. http://goo.gl/KWb7e

U.S. view - "There is a subtle shift in Chinese foreign policy. You've seen it at the U.N., you've seen it in our private conversations ... I don't think that subtle shift can be lost on Pyongyang...It's not in their strategic interest to alienate every country that surrounds them. I think they have succeeded in undermining their trust and confidence in Beijing," said former Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell in a talk last week. Josh Rogin at Foreign Policy has the story. http://atfp.co/10JC7vn

View from China - “The main Chinese themes on North Korea have not changed as a result of the current situation. China would like to see a relaxation of tensions, renewed regional dialog and economic reform. They do not appear to believe there is a high risk of armed conflict,” writes Gregory Kulacki at All Things Nuclear.

--China argues “the United States should engage directly with the leaders of North Korea at a high level in order to provide the sense of security they now seek through nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. The one change repeated to me by several Chinese colleagues this week is China now believes North Korea is determined to build a functional nuclear deterrent...But there is no apparent justification for assuming it will be a turning point for Chinese foreign policy.” Full post here. http://bit.ly/144g5tl

N. Korea’s fissile production - Amid North Korea’s threats and bluster last week, it also said it would “readjust and restart all the nuclear facilities at Yongbyon.” This could mean that the North plans to reactivate its 5 MW plutonium production reactor, reopen its reprocessing facility, and reconfigure its uranium enrichment plant to produce HEU for bombs, according to Siegfried Hecker in an interview with The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/10KnWGr

Tweet - @HuffingtonPost: Switzerland offers North Korea crisis mediation. huff.to/16Ffc66

After the 4-year deadline - “President Obama’s goal of locking away all vulnerable nuclear material from terrorists’ grasp by today remains incomplete, despite significant security advances over the past four years.” Chris Schneidmiller at Global Security Newswire sums up the accomplishments and the state of play for the longer-term effort to secure nuclear material. http://bit.ly/12zgMWD

Martyl Langsdorf, 1917-2013 - Martyl Langsdorf, an artist and original designer of the Doomsday Clock, died last month at the age of 96. Since 1947, Mrs. Langsdorf’s Doomsday Clock has been a feature on the cover of The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

--“To be able to reduce something that complex to something so simple and memorable is really a feat of magic,” said graphic designer and Bulletin board member Michael Bierut. Full article in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/12xuv48

Lessons from Cuba - President Kennedy’s experience from the Cuban Missile Crisis offers important lessons for Obama when he considers responses to North Korea’s recent provocations writes Michael Dobbs in Foreign Policy.

--Lessons: (1) “When it comes to possible nuclear confrontation, pre-delegating authority to the generals can be a big mistake; (2) a single nuclear weapon changes everything; (3) avoid blind escalation; (4) pay attention to the ‘unknown unknowns;’ (5) understand the limits of crisis management; (6) avoid drawing lines in the sand that you might later regret; (7) talk to your enemies; and (8) containment worked.” Detailed discussion of the lessons here. http://goo.gl/K0sCW

Events:

--Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference. April 8-9 @ Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW. Details here. http://owl.li/jKm30

--”Responsibility Beyond Rules: Leadership for a Secure Nuclear Future,” April 10 10:00 am at the Carnegie Endowment. Details here. http://owl.li/jKmMX

--”North Korea: Is Regime Change the Answer?” Roundtable discussion with Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. April 11, form 10:00-11:00 at IISS in Washington. Details here. http://bit.ly/ZDKx4D

Dessert:

Nork propaganda - “Here’s the new music video North Korea made for Kim Jong Un” from Max Fisher in The Washington Post. http://goo.gl/RysUI