What Capabilities Does North Korea Have?

On the radar: Bluster and reality; Limited and untested missiles; Long-term strategy for Iran and Iranians; Tweaking the doomsday plan; Capping MOX; Other E. Asian nuclear threats; and Surviving radiation exposure.

April 5, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Tweet - @NSCPress: 4 years ago today, POTUS gave major speech in Prague on vision for decreasing threat of nuclear arms to the world. http://bit.ly/10BjkSF

N. Korea’s threats - North Korea’s missile threats are “probably all bluster,” said Gary Samore, former WMD tsar on the National Security Staff.

--Experts say there is no evidence ”that North Korea has tested the complex art of miniaturizing a nuclear weapon to be placed on a long-range missile, a capability the United States, Russia, China and others achieved decades ago,” report Mark Hosenball and Phil Steward for Reuters. http://reut.rs/14Ti6rP

Missile ranges - There is a lot of media confusion on North Korea’s missile arsenal. David Wright at All Things Nuclear offers a quick list of the missiles, possible ranges and operational statuses. Full missile analysis here, quick info below. http://bit.ly/14TdPVi

--Scud missile: Tested and operational. 300-500 km range when carrying a 700-1,000 kg payload. Could reach most of South Korea, accurate enough to hit a city.
--Nodong missile: Tested and operational. 1,000-1,300 km range, enough to reach most of Japan. Accurate enough to hit a city, but not tested enough to prove reliability.
--Musdan missile: Not tested and not operational, making it unlikely the North would put any possible nuclear warheads on this unproven missile. Hypothetical range of about 3,000 km, too short to target Guam.
--Taepodong-2: Not tested, not operational. Technology for the missile was used in North Korea’s December satellite launch. If that rocket were modified to carry a warhead, it might have enough range to reach Alaska or Hawaii, though perhaps not the continental US.

Sanctions backlash - After two years under harsh economic sanctions, the Iranian public is growing resentful of the U.S., potentially helping the Iranian regime deflect blame from the country’s economic crisis.

--A new report from the Atlantic Council “suggested the trend could be reversed with well-targeted policies that ensure that ordinary Iranians have access to humanitarian goods as well as student visas and other programs that promote cultural exchanges between the two countries.” Joby Warrick at The Washington Post sums up the report. http://wapo.st/Y2yvCS

Long-term strategy - ”The timeframe to peacefully address Iran's nuclear program is narrowing, so US strategy in the next months is critical...The [Atlantic Council] report offers a comprehensive, long-term strategy towards Iran that would serve the administration well,” writes Joe Cirincione in The Huffington Post.

--Highlighted recommendation: “The US government and its allies should prepare a roadmap to be used in negotiations, for gradually removing sanctions as concrete agreements are reached. To make meaningful concessions, Iran needs to see off-ramps and an endgame.” http://huff.to/YAsK2S

--Full report: ”Time to Move from Tactics to Strategy on Iran” by the Iran Task Force of the Atlantic Council. (pdf) http://bit.ly/10e0anc

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Tweet - @NNSANews: US removes last remaining highly enriched uranium from Czech Republic - Release: http://1.usa.gov/12qowKx | Photos http://bit.ly/Y2Lmok

CRS report - “North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons: Technical Issues” by Mary Beth Nikitin of the Congressional Research Service. April 3, 2013. (pdf) http://bit.ly/Un5d4o

Offer tabled - “Iran Says It Offers New Plan for Nuclear Program” by David Herszenhorn of The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/ZDQ0Zn

Tweet - @lrozen: Iran talks setback, but still a day and a half to try to salvage some progress. http://bit.ly/16wRtF8

Nuclear war plans - “At the same time the White House is finishing a review of nuclear weapons policy, U.S. Strategic Command has quietly put into effect a new strategic nuclear war plan,” reports Hans Kristensen. The new plan - OPLAN 8010-12 - likely makes minor adjustments to existing plans by scrapping strike scenarios involving the recently retired TLAM/N. It might trim scenarios in which the US would use nuclear weapons against small regional adversaries.

--OPLAN 8010 is still thought to reflect Cold War-era strategies. “When President Obama signs his new Presidential Policy Directive in the near future, it is important that it directs the military to change OPLAN 8010-12 in such a way that it actually puts an end to Cold War thinking. This will be his last chance to do so,” writes Kristensen. http://bit.ly/10znqfg

Bluster and risk - Should the U.S. take North Korea’s saber-rattling seriously? Yes, says Philip Yun at US News. “The greatest danger at this time comes not from a North Korean pre-emptive nuclear attack, but from miscalculation...one could easily foresee a situation in which an altercation between North and South – one that would have been relatively minor a few years ago — now has a real chance of escalating out of control into something major. Let's hope that things cool down quickly.” Full post here. http://bit.ly/Y2A4AL

The MOX ceiling - A nuclear contractor just announced it poured the final layer of structural concrete for the roof on a troubled, $7.7 billion plutonium fuel plant in South Carolina. Critics say the facility should be halted, as program cost have spiralled out of control and no customers for the plant’s fuel have been identified.

--“Now that the roof has been finished, the mismanaged project has reached a point where the facility can be mothballed and the overall program terminated,” said Tom Clements. Douglas Guarino of Global Security Newswire has the story. http://bit.ly/XtDeCm

Pu proliferation - As worries about North Korea flare, Japan and South Korea are moving toward increasing their plutonium production capabilities. This nuclear positioning would increase the risk of nuclear proliferation in East Asia, notes Henry Sokolski in The National Review.

--Recommendation: At a minimum, the U.S. should defer “as long as possible any decision to start any form of Korean nuclear-fuel-making or to increase Japanese plutonium production. Whatever time is gained should be used to figure out how to avoid unnecessary and uneconomic nuclear-fuel-making activities not only by our enemies but by our allies as well.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/XtE42d

Events:

--April 5: Fourth anniversary of President Obama’s Prague speech on nuclear weapons.

--April 5-6: P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, UK and US) continue nuclear talks with Iran in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

--North America Nuclear Policy Conference, International Network of Emerging Nuclear Specialists, April 6-7. Details here. http://owl.li/jKlFk

--Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference. April 8-9 @ Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW. Details here. http://owl.li/jKm30

--”Responsibility Beyond Rules: Leadership for a Secure Nuclear Future,” April 10 10:00 am at the Carnegie Endowment. Details here. http://owl.li/jKmMX

--”North Korea: Is Regime Change the Answer?” Roundtable discussion with Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. April 11, form 10:00-11:00 at IISS in Washington. Details here. http://bit.ly/ZDKx4D

Dessert:

More than iodine pills - The Department of Health and Human Services is researching ways to treat severe cell platelet loss - a potentially fatal condition caused by excessive radiation exposure following a nuclear accident or blast.

-- “The solution, the health department believes, are in ‘modified first generation thrombopoietin receptor agents,’ or proteins that regulate and stimulate platelet growth in bone marrow. Find a way to administer these proteins, and they could lead to accelerated platelet regeneration and increased survival,” reports Robert Beckhusen of Danger Room. http://bit.ly/YXteQ1