The Messy Politics of Nuclear Deterrence

On the radar: The Trident renewal debate; House pushback on missile defense spending; LANL pretty much knows where the plutonium is; Putin to Tehran; Instagramming the Hermit Kingdom; and the “Biggest frickin’ guns in the world.”

July 24, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Budgets and politics - “A decision on the future of Britain’s nuclear deterrent could depend as much on the dynamics of intra-coalition and inter-party politics—and a referendum on Scottish independence—as it does on strategic analysis,” writes Lt. Gen. Frank Klotz (USAF, ret.) in The National Interest.

--Klotz provides background on how the UK arrived at its current nuclear force structure and how its political parties have fought to a stalemate over how or whether to replace Britain’s nuclear deterrent during a period of intense defense budget austerity.

--Lesson: “A perennial question faced by the major nuclear powers is how many and what kinds of nuclear forces are necessary to maintain an effective, credible deterrent. Contending assessments of security threats, as well as differing strategic concepts, have traditionally informed the debate. Yet, the tug-and-pull of domestic politics can also play a significant role in determining a nation’s nuclear policy.” http://bit.ly/1691XLH

Appropriating missile defense - Yesterday the House considered several missile defense related amendments to the 2014 Pentagon spending bill. Republicans blocked Democratic efforts to eliminate funding for an East Coast missile defense site, which GOP legislators are pushing for even though “DoD officials admission that there is no military requirement for such a system.”

--The chamber also rejected “an amendment to remove funds for nearly 15 new missile interceptors in the western US offered by Democratic members.” Democrats working to eliminate the $110 million slated for the new interceptors citing the program’s habitual test failures as their rationale. The House also approved “an amendment that would make available $15 million to build Iron Dome missiles on US soil,” reports John Bennett at Defense News. http://ow.ly/nhj4S

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War party - “If nothing changes in Iran, come September, October, I will present a resolution that will authorize the use of military force to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb,” announced Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) at a political conference yesterday. Ben Armbruster at Think Progress has the story. http://bit.ly/11dNn5S

Accounting error - Los Alamos National Lab is 98% sure of its accounting for the lab’s weapons-grade plutonium, after a recent pop inspection by the Department of Energy. That unaccounted for 2% is a bit of a problem for a facility seeking perfect accuracy.

--The DOE inspector general noted that the lab “continued to experience problems with the accountability of certain nuclear materials,” largely as a result of managers who “did not always provide effective oversight to ensure the control and accountability of nuclear materials.” John Fleck at The Albuquerque Journal has the story. http://bit.ly/16ZuuCC

Tweet - @BBCWorld: China vice-president to visit North Korea, amid strained ties after N Korea nuclear test. http://bbc.in/167K4wP

Russian rapporteur - Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to meet with Iranian president elect Hassan Rouhani just days after he is inaugurated in mid-August. Two items allegedly on the agenda - Iran’s nuclear program and an offer by the Russians to replace frozen shipments of S-300 anti-missile aircraft systems. On the former, “Moscow has proposed a compromise under which Tehran would be rewarded for scaling back on enrichment with concessions on international sanctions over the nuclear program,” reports Reuters. http://ow.ly/nhdgB

Tweet - @AtomicHeritage: 7/24/45: Truman discloses the existence of the atomic bomb to Stalin (who had already been informed about it by his spies) #ManhattanProject.

Speed reads -

--”‘Landmark’ Space Policy Shift As China, Others Agree To Space Code of Conduct Talks” by Colin Clark at Breaking Defense. http://bit.ly/13cYxW9

--”U.S. Could Field Even More Interceptors in Alaska” from Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/1bN2NUO

--”What Manhattan Would Look Like In A Nuclear Blast” by Kelsey Atherton in Popular Science. http://bit.ly/18zA8Ph

Events:

--”Iran: How a Third Tier Cyber Power Can Still Threaten The United States,” Barbara Slavin, Jason Healey, and Dmitri Alperovitch. July 29, 9:30-11:00 AM @ Cosmos Club. Details here http://ow.ly/nc561

--”Nuclear Deterrence, Prompt Strike and Triad Perspectives,” Breakfast seminar with Lt. Gen. James Kowalski, Commander, Global Strike Command. July 31 from 8:00-9:00 AM @ the Capitol Hill Club. http://bit.ly/19dqS69

--"2013 PONI Summer Conference." July 31-August 1. Sandia National Laboratories. Details here. http://ow.ly/ncmCN

Dessert:

Tweet - @BuzzFeed: 35 Instagrams From North Korea. bzfd.it/17zfkGf

Big guns - Before and during World War II, countries built massive guns that could lob large artillery rounds from long ranges. The most famous of these big guns required transport by train or mounting on battleships. The nuclear age took things to a new level, as the Army and Navy built nuclear artillery shells and mobile launchers to shoot them.

--David Axe describes the rise of the big guns, our adventures with nuclear artillery and how lighter warheads and missiles brought the age of big guns to a close. From War is Boring. http://bit.ly/17De8lj