Missile Defense Expansion in East Asia
On the radar: Talking North Korea, eyeing China; Could conventional weapons undermine deterrence; Aim points and ICBM fields; Gen. Kehler on China’s arsenal; Concerns over DOE plutonium plan; India on its way to a triad; Cannibalizing MEADS; and Jackson-Vanik is still around.
August 23, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Leah Fae Cochran
Really, it’s about North Korea - The U.S. beefing up missile defense systems in East Asia. The U.S. has one X-band radar stationed in Northern Japan, is engaged in talks to place a 2nd in southern Japan, and is evaluating sites in Southeast Asia for a third. This would “create an arc that would allow the U.S. and its regional allies to more accurately track any ballistic missiles launched from North Korea, as well as from parts of China,” write Adam Entous and Julian Barnes for The Wall Street Journal.
--”The focus of our rhetoric is North Korea...The reality is that we're also looking longer term at the elephant in the room, which is China," said Steven Hildreth of the Congressional Research Service. http://on.wsj.com/P3xvhV
Global strike, deterrence instability - “Is it possible that futuristic conventional weapons could actually make a nuclear blast more likely?” asks Elaine Grossman at Global Security Newswire. According to a panel at a recent USSTRATCOM deterrence symposium, maybe.
--Several panelists argued that advanced U.S. conventional capabilities could encourage would-be military challengers to acquire unconventional weapons to deter the U.S. Also, as U.S. seeks conventional capability to strike targets anywhere in the world within an hour, challengers could seek more prompt-launch capabilities. As panelist Hans Kristensen said, this “could in fact weaken deterrence and increase the risk of mistaken, inadvertent or even deliberate escalation.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/O5gGzt
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Tweet - @FrankMunger: In case you missed it, extraordinary film of WWII Manhattan Project construction in Oak Ridge. http://bit.ly/OyqaE1
Aim points - “The nuclear triad – composed of silo-based ballistic missiles, bombers, and ballistic missile submarines – currently consists of around 460 aim points, an amount that could be reduced to 8 or 9 were we to eliminate the ICBMs,” writes Eli Jacobs of CSIS in a map-heavy analysis.
--Jacobs notes, “Arguably, possessing a nuclear arsenal that can withstand a first strike is of diminishing importance post-Cold War...Although deployed SSBNs only constitute a handful of aim points, this handful may be sufficient to deter.” http://bit.ly/RgIX95
Quote - “I do not believe that China has hundreds or thousands more nuclear weapons than what the intelligence community has been saying, […] that the Chinese arsenal is in the range of several hundred [nuclear warheads],” said Gen. Robert Kehler, commander of U.S. Strategic Command.
--Kehler’s assessment, which is inline with U.S. intelligence estimates and public analysis from experts at the Federation of American Scientists, stands in stark contrast to much hyped but severely flawed analysis that China has as many as 3,000 warheads. Hans Kristensen at FAS has the quote. http://bit.ly/QuxC0j
Good plan? - At a series of public meetings opponents expressed concern about the safety risks involved in a Department of Energy plan to ship 7.1 metric tons of plutonium-filled weapon pits for storage in Los Alamos.The Washington Post has the story. http://wapo.st/Qr1avN
Subs for the subcontinent - India is well on its way to a sea-based nuclear capability, with its first indigenously built submarine slated to launch in 2013. Although the program is unlikely able to deploy nuclear-armed missiles on its planned submarine fleet for another decade, the capability has big implications for Pakistan’s future calculations.
--”How Pakistan responds to the forthcoming induction of India's strategic submarines over the next decade will have repercussions for both regional and international security,” writes Shane A. Mason at
MEADS leftovers - Pentagon officials, and Lockheed Martin, are hoping to salvage the 360-degree surveillance radar from the moribund MEADS missile defense program and use the technology with the U.S. Patriot/PAC-3 arsenal. Amy Butler at Aviation Week has the story. http://bit.ly/OytwHb
Tweet - @cirincione: Can we repeal Jackson-Vanik already? See Jane Harman's thoughtful comments on this anachronistic law. http://bit.ly/Oyq6nB