Next Steps with the Iran Review Bill

No more poison pills - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) moved to end debate on the Corker-Cardin Iran legislation on Tuesday. McConnell’s move, expected tomorrow, would close off consideration of further amendments. If the vote to end debate is successful, a vote on the bill itself is possible this week or next, CNN reports. http://cnn.it/1IgsoGe

--See Also: “Tom Cotton’s Procedural Move Interrupts Smooth Sailing for the Iran Bill,” by Jennifer Steinhauer for The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1Rd346A

McConnell’s next steps - The Corker-Cardin bill allows Congress three options for reviewing the nuclear deal with Iran: a resolution of approval, a resolution of disapproval or no vote. Conventional wisdom has been that Republicans in Congress would seek a vote of disapproval in an attempt to restrict the President’s ability to implement the deal.

--“Republicans have another option, however: introducing a resolution of approval of the deal, and gleefully watching it fail. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., in fact has already suggested that may be exactly what he plans on doing,” reports Julian Pecquet for Al Monitor. http://bit.ly/1E95mL1

Snapback sanctions - U.S. and European officials would like to ensure that neither Russia nor China interfere with making current U.N. sanctions on Iran easily reversible if Iran violates the agreement, Reuters reports. “Snapback sanctions” have traditionally been opposed by Russia and China and have become a hot-button issue in congressional debate over the Iran deal. http://reut.rs/1ADZMih

--"We're going to [the sanctions process] in a manner that doesn't require Russian and Chinese support or a vote for snapback...because we are in a different world in 2015 than we were when the sanctions architecture was put in place," said U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power. Watch her full interview with Charlie Rose here. http://bloom.bg/1FPAcwF

Tweet - @Cirincione: Interested in working for @plough_shares? There are currently three positions open in our D.C. office. http://t.co/XNHu5mECiC

’Madam Secretary’ and Iran - The popular CBS drama ‘Madam Secretary” recently concluded a season-long plot about rapprochement with Iran. Real life negotiations may not have reached that point, but diplomats are making real progress on advancing the goals laid out in the framework agreement, Robin Wright writes in The New Yorker.

“What is more striking, after eighteen months of negotiations, is the changing climate, whether in popular culture, public opinion, or diplomacy,” she adds. Actual diplomacy won’t be as easy as it appears on television, Wright warns, but changing public opinion is a welcome first step in thawing relations between the U.S. and Iran. http://nyr.kr/1F5r9Jj

Tweet - @BoingBoing: What if Detroit were nuked? A 1979 government report found out. http://t.co/LKkWfceC56

Scotland & nuclear submarines - If the Scottish National Party (SNP) makes major gains in the U.K.’s May 7th election, it may push for the permanent removal of the U.K. nuclear missile submarines from their port in Falsane, Scotland. SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon calls the removal of the missiles a "blood red line," and the SNP has strong public support. Activists camped outside the base agree. http://bbc.in/1INDH7z

eBay and enrichment - Online marketplace such as Alibaba and eBay could play a vital role in ensuring that countries cannot purchase ‘dual-use’ industrial technology that could potentially used for developing nuclear weapons, Bloomberg reports.

--“Alibaba has a special role because they’re the Amazon.com of industrial goods,” said Nick Gillard, a former Austrialan counterproliferation analyst. Alibaba is considering enabling algorithms to target suspicious searches for nuclear related equipment. http://bloom.bg/1EQ84Y7

Misreading history with North Korea - Comparing the 1994 Agreed Framework for North Korea and the current Iran negotiations ignores history, argue Robert L. Gallucci and Joel S. Wit in Foreign Affairs.

--“The real history,” they write, “is that, over eight years, the United States, along with South Korea, Japan, and the international community, exerted enormous effort to move forward with its side of the deal, particularly the construction of a multi-billion-dollar reactor project in North Korea.” While North Korea might have later cheated, the initial implementation of the Agreed Framework was a success. http://fam.ag/1KM3FYj

Iran’s revolution - “A nuclear deal with Iran could be an important step in pushing the regime back to concentrating on its revolutionary tasks at home,” writes Jeremy Friedman in The National Interest. “By offering Iran a measure of security and cooperation, the United States would allow the forces of reform to shape the trajectory of the Iranian Revolution without a perpetual demand to mobilize against a supposed American threat.” http://bit.ly/1EOVd8D

Verification report - “IAEA Verification of Fissile Material in Support of Nuclear Disarmament” by Thomas Shea and Laura Rockwood for the Project on Managing the Atom. May 2015. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1DSjwP6

NPT & CTBT - As the review conference of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) continues in New York, participants should not overlook the importance of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), argues CTBT Commission official Nikita Perfilyev in The Diplomat.

--The treaty has yet to enter into force due to the failure of some signatories with nuclear research reactors to ratify. “There is no reason for those countries that are members of the zones free of nuclear weapons not to ratify the CTBT,” Perfiliyev writes. http://bit.ly/1zB4rGy

Quick Hits:

--”Can the IAEA Verify the Iran Deal?” by Alisa Carrigan for The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/1QmE9vM

--”Notes from the NPT RevCon,” by Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova for Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/1QmbUNQ

--”Obama Expected to Push for Gulf Missile Defense at U.S. Summit,” by Matt Spetalnick and Andrea Shalal for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1c4Y17z

--“Utah Has Already Paid Its Price for America’s Nuclear Programs,” by Mary Ellen Navas and Bob Archibald for The Deseret News. http://bit.ly/1EQlsf2

Events:

--“An Iran Nuclear Deal: Too Big to Fail?” featuring Peter Beinart, Suzanne DiMaggio, Ali Vaez and Fred Kaplan. May 11th from 6:30-8:15pm at Civic Hall in New York. http://bit.ly/1JehLk5

--Arms Control Association annual meeting, featuring keynotes Alexander Kmett, Austrian Director of Arms Control, Nonproliferation and Disarmament, and Colin Kahl, National Security Advisor to the Vice President. May 14th from 9:00-2:30pm at Carnegie. http://bit.ly/1dsD8V0

--”Deterrent Options for the Future,” remarks by Linton Brooks, former NNSA Administrator, at the Huessy Congressional breakfast series. May 19th from 8:00-9:00am at the Capitol Hill Club. http://conta.cc/1DKftpf

--“Bursting the Plutonium Bubble: How Utopian Communities Made Dystopian Nuclear Landscapes,” featuring historian Kate Brown. May 18th from 4:00-5:00pm at the Wilson Center. http://bit.ly/1FKAPHT