North Korea and Iran: Lessons in National Interests

Lessons from North Korea - “The collapse of the North Korea deal has been used to argue that it is impossible to conduct diplomacy with rogue states. But the only litmus test that matters is whether an agreement serves our national interest, is better than having no deal at all, and is preferable to military force. The arrangement with Iran appears to be well on its way to meeting that standard,” write Robert Gallucci and Joel Wit in The New York Times.

--“The United States didn’t follow through on two major incentives it had promised in return for North Korea’s nuclear restraint… This does not excuse the North’s behavior, but it does show these deals require constant attention.”

--“One way to [ensure the success of the Iran agreement] is for the United States and its partners to establish a body that meets regularly to oversee implementation… We need a mechanism for resolving disputes and a plan for political, economic and possibly military steps to deal with violations that we and our partners have agreed on beforehand.” http://nyti.ms/1yok2sx

--See also: “Lessons from North Korea” by John Delury in Foreign Affairs. (paywall) http://fam.ag/1cp9QpI

Strong support - 61% of American voters support the Iran nuclear agreement, compared to only 34% opposed, finds a new poll conducted by Hart Research for Americans United for Change.

--65% want Congress to allow Iran nuclear agreement to go forward and closely monitor its implementation, while only 30% supports Congress taking action now to block the deal.

--Topline results here (pdf): http://bit.ly/1ckfHwk. And full survey here: http://bit.ly/1O6MPDu

POTUS - “Now, if we are able to obtain a final deal that comports with the political agreement -- and I say ‘if’ because that’s not yet final -- then I’m absolutely positive that that is the best way to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon,” said President Obama in response to a question about the recent framework deal with Iran.

--Asked about the political fights ahead, the President said, “The narrow question that’s going to be presented next week when Congress comes back is what’s Congress’s appropriate role in looking at a final deal… I want to work with them so that Congress can look at this deal when it’s done. What I’m concerned about is making sure that we don’t prejudge it, or those who are opposed to any deal whatsoever try to use a procedural argument essentially to screw up the possibility of a deal.” Read the full remarks at the Summit of the Americas. http://1.usa.gov/1yoljQp

Corker update - Sens. Bob Corker (R-TN) and Ben Cardin (D-MD) kept in touch over the April recess, aides say, but the Senate Foreign Relations chair and ranking member have not yet reached an agreement over the Iran review bill.

--Sen. Cardin reportedly wants substantial changes to the Corker bill, and his support will be key for the SFRC vote. The fate of the bill after tomorrow’s markup is unclear, as the Senate has a number of other items on its legislative agenda. Burgess Everett for POLITICO. http://politi.co/1NvB1Qq

--See also: “Dems, GOP propose 50-some amendments to Iran nuclear bill,” by Deb Riechmann for AP. http://wapo.st/1an3CF9

A strong step - “The Lausanne understanding is not built on trust. It is built on hard-nosed requirements that would limit Iran’s activities and ensure vital access and transparency,” writes Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz in the Washington Post.

--“Throughout the negotiations, leading nuclear experts at the Energy Department and its national labs have been involved… As a result, the key parameters for the agreement that was announced April 2 in Switzerland provide a technically sound path for certifying Iran’s nuclear program as peaceful, quickly determining if it is not and providing the breathing room needed to respond appropriately.” http://wapo.st/1an4BVT

Spoke too soon - A senior Pentagon official’s claim that North Korea is capable of miniaturizing a nuclear warhead was “not made with a thorough assessment of North Korea’s capabilities,” South Korea’s vice defense minister said at a recent press event. WSJ’s Alastair Gale reports. http://on.wsj.com/1IX8uwo

Partisan politics - “Some Republicans see the Corker bill as one of the last remaining tools Congress has to kill this deal,” writes Col. Richard Klass (USAF ret.) in the Richmond Times-Dispatch. “[Senators] are wise to seek a constructive role for Congress in the pursuit of such a historic agreement. But they should be very wary of joining forces with those whose goal is to defeat any agreement.” http://bit.ly/1DBe47N

Alternatives - “If the framework agreement is undercut by Congress, those crying “bad deal” should be forced to answer: What’s your alternative?” Gen. Robert Gard (USA ret.) writes in the Virginia Pilot. “This is a dangerous game that could ultimately derail diplomacy.” http://bit.ly/1Hk09V8

Sunday show quotes:

--Secretary of State John Kerry on Meet the Press: “What we’re looking for is not to have Congress interfere with our ability, inappropriately, by stepping on the prerogatives of the executive department of the president.” http://nbcnews.to/1yolkUm

--Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) on Fox News: “I’m not backing off [in supporting the Corker bill]. I honestly believe it’s a congressional duty to review any agreement that comes about.” http://fxn.ws/1aI6OeU

No cakewalk - Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) recently argued for striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, saying it would only take a few days of naval bombing. “As a fellow infantryman and Iraq veteran, I’m dismayed to hear Cotton’s cavalier attitude toward a major conflict with arguably the most organized and militarized country in the Middle East,” writes Matt Pelak.

--As we’ve learned time after time, bombing campaigns are far from the simple, surgical, and sanitary option that tough-talking politicians so often want them to be.” Full op-ed in Defense One. http://bit.ly/1CP2iSD

Turkey isn’t a domino - “According to conventional wisdom, if Iran develops nuclear weapons, then Saudi Arabia, Turkey and perhaps Egypt will try to follow suit....as far as Turkey is concerned, the conventional wisdom seems to be largely wrong,” write George Perkovich and Sinan Ülgen in The Japan Times. http://bit.ly/1an7u9h

Quick Hits:

--”New START Nuke Deal With Russia May Be Aging — But It's Not Over” by David Welna for NPR. http://n.pr/1IXrWJj

--“Deal or not, many U.S. states will keep sanctions grip on Iran,” by Yeganeh Torbati for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1O6HtrY

--“Framework nuclear deal respects Iran's red lines: Iran commander,” from Reuters. http://reut.rs/1za10RC