Posturing in Tehran, Washington before Talks Resume

Between the lines - Ayatollah Khamenei took a hard line in his first public remarks on the framework agreement, saying that all sanctions must be lifted immediately and that international inspectors would not be permitted in military sites.

--But the Supreme Leader also hinted at greater cooperation with the U.S., leading analysts to believe the speech was rhetoric to influence the ongoing talks. Khamenei “knows very well that sanctions won’t be lifted immediately,” Alireza Nader tells the LA Times. “There’s a middle ground here and he’s trying to push the negotiations toward it.” http://lat.ms/1aQTUfB

--See also: “Iran Prepared to Extend Nuclear Deal Talks Over Red Lines,” by Asa Fitch at The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1Fsgiss

US position - "We're not going to respond to every public statement made by Iranian officials or negotiate in public," said State Department spokesman Jeff Rathke about the Ayatollah’s comments.

--"The process of sanctions suspension or relief will only begin after Iran has completed its major nuclear steps and the breakout time has been increased to at least a year...So that's consistent with what we said over the last week or so, and that was agreed upon by all the parties in Lausanne.” http://yhoo.it/1HZGp7D

Flashback - Remember that time in July when Ayatollah Khamenei said Iran needed 190,000 centrifuges and the press interpreted that as meaning a deal is impossible? Because the deal on the table limits Iran to 6,000 - somewhat lower than the Ayatollah’s positioning implied at the time. http://reut.rs/1aeXpLv

Sanctions hawks - Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) will push for a vote on his Iran sanctions bill, walking back an earlier plan give negotiators until the June 30 deadline to finalize a comprehensive deal. Bloomberg reports. http://bv.ms/1Izk7Nd

Nonproliferation after Iran deal - An Iran deal could be the foundation for improving the international nonproliferation system, nuclear experts tell Al-Monitor. After the deal and building on the upcoming nuclear security summit, their goals include eliminating or civilian uses of highly enriched uranium, multilateralizing the fuel cycle, and more international cooperation on nuclear research and safety issues. http://bit.ly/1OiW85e

Snapping back - The process for lifting UN sanctions - and reimposing them if Iran reneges on the nuclear deal - is still under debate. The U.S. and European allies prioritize the ability to snap back sanctions quickly, even automatically. However, Russia and China, will likely oppose any process that blocks their veto power. AP reports. http://yhoo.it/1EhiXDB

War games - The U.S. is beginning a series of four-week military exercises in Eastern Europe, an effort to reassure Eastern allies that some experts say revives Cold War tensions.

--"A dangerous game of military brinkmanship is now being played in Europe," said Ian Kearns, director of the European Leadership Network, a London-based think-tank. "If one commander or one pilot makes a mistake or a bad decision in this situation, we may have casualties and a high-stakes cycle of escalation that is difficult to stop." The AP reports. http://apne.ws/1HWiZzX

Not harmless - In a recent Washington Post interview, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) claimed that the Corker bill won’t harm the Iran talks. He’s overlooking some key facts, writes Salon’s Jim Newell.

--“[If Congress passes] a law that prevents the president from lifting sanctions immediately, how’s that going to look? Iran’s conservatives can say that President Obama doesn’t have control of his own government, and the United States can’t be trusted.” http://bit.ly/1z2fjaN

Cotton’s cakewalk - “Cotton is largely correct that four days of intensive bombing would likely deal a blow to Iran’s nuclear program,” writes the Washington Post’s Glenn Kessler on Sen. Tom Cotton’s assessment of military action against Iran. “But his analogy [to Operation Desert Fox] minimizes the potential for retaliation and regional blow-back far different from the muted reaction of a beleaguered Iraqi regime. Iran would almost certainly strike back, in potentially deadly ways, against U.S. aircraft, personnel and allies.”

--“We understand he was countering the notion of an invasion—which is absurd—but he should also acknowledge that this would not be cakewalk. Iran is not Iraq, after all, and that makes such historical analogies so facile.” http://wapo.st/1D35I7A

Vet’s perspective - “America will prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. This agreement promises to do that without risking a single American life,” writes Michael Breen in the Concord Monitor. “We must support diplomacy when it has the chance of success before we ask our men and women in uniform to go into battle yet again.” http://bit.ly/1JvXzuG

Anger, security issues - “A federal agent who ferries nuclear bombs around the U.S. allegedly threatened to kill a co-worker and got into physical fights with others—and bosses weren’t informed, an audit finds.” Full story by R. Jeffrey Smith of the Center for Public Integrity. http://thebea.st/1ci2uEi

Quick Hits:

--“There's Common Ground For Final Nuclear Deal, Ex-Iranian Diplomat Says,” Seyed Hossein Mousavian interview with NPR’s Steve Inskeep. http://n.pr/1NkuJ64

--“Why Iran hawks can't be honest about what they really want,” by Max Fisher for Vox. http://bit.ly/1CCmBlG

Events:

--Senate Foreign Relations Committee, markup of the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015, S. 615. 2:15pm, S-116 Capitol Building, Washington. Not webcast. http://1.usa.gov/1HZw37J

--Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, hearing on the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) budget. With Frank Klotz, Administrator, NNSA; and four other witnesses. April 15 at 2:30 PM. Located at 222 Russell Senate Office Building, Washington Dc. Webcast on the committee website. http://1.usa.gov/1FLDB07

--“Politics of a Nuclear Deal: Former U.S. & Iranian Officials Debate.” Featuring Stephen J. Hadley, Ali-Akbar Mousavi, Jim Slattery, Howard Berman and Michael Singh. April 20, 9:30-11:00am, U.S. Institute of Peace. Register online. http://bit.ly/19YuB9N

--House Armed Services Committee, markup of the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which includes the nuclear weapons and nonproliferation programs of the National Nuclear Security Administration. April 29 at 10:00 AM. Located at 2118 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC. Webcast on the committee website. http://armedservices.house.gov/