Pushing U.S. Interests with Russia, Even After Scrubbed Summit

On the radar: National interests and defector politics; North Korea expanding enrichment; From tooth to tailkit; Rouhani and rapprochement; and Souring relations on the Subcontinent.

August 8, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Summits and snubbings - President Obama backed out of a planned summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and scrapped sideline discussions at an upcoming G20 meeting, amid US and Russian disagreements on critical foreign policy issues and the political hullabaloo around Edward Snowden.

--“We weren’t going to have a summit for the sake of appearances, and there wasn’t an agenda that was ripe...We’ll continue to calibrate whether or not the relationship improves to the point where we can reopen the prospect of a presidential initiative,” said Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes to The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/19dEBeb

Maintain perspective - “The president has good grounds to go to Moscow if progress can be made on [nuclear reductions and missile defense] or on other issues important to his foreign policy agenda, even if Snowden continues to enjoy temporary asylum,” writes Steven Pifer.

--“If the summit looks like it will produce no achievements, why pay the domestic political costs of going to Moscow? But if the summit with Putin offers a reasonable chance to move forward on key issues, such as nuclear cuts that would make Americans safer, the president should go, regardless of the Snowden saga.” Full post in The Hill. http://bit.ly/16xanx2

Beyond Snowden - The canceled summit “cannot be allowed to derail critical United States national security issues that require Russian cooperation,” writes Joe Cirincione. “Great powers find a way to conduct their most serious business despite sharp disagreements,” and Secretaries Hagel and Kerry should use their upcoming meeting with their Russian counterparts to resuscitate stalled reductions in the two countries’ bloated nuclear arsenals.

--”As nettlesome as the Snowden problem is, the administration must find a way to work around it. To do so, it can draw on its own experiences from its first year in office. Then, the president overcame the intense disagreements over the Russian war with Georgia to hammer out the New START treaty by April of 2010. His administration can apply the same grit and realism to prevent this latest flap and Russia’s behavior from harming America’s core national security interests.” Full post in Defense One. http://bit.ly/195JLoS

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Interests with Russia - “Despite the decision, the hard work of dealing with Russia on key issues — including P5+1 efforts to prevent a nuclear armed Iran, reducing bloated U.S. and Russian nuclear stockpiles, addressing the Syrian catastrophe, and more — can and must continue,” writes Daryl Kimball in Arms Control Now. http://bit.ly/17zEKlm

Tweet - @Max_Fisher: Really good interactive timeline of highs and lows in the U.S.-Russia relationship under Obama. http://t.co/ABUKCS0DmO

Expanding enrichment - New analysis based on comparative satellite imagery suggests that North Korea has doubled the size of its Yongbyon reactor complex, a site used to enrich uranium for the country’s nuclear program. Using North Korea’s “own assertion that the original building housed 2,000 centrifuges,” the study conducted by the Institute for Science and International Security” estimates that the enlarged building could now hold roughly 4,000 centrifuges.

--Implications: “My concern is that they’re expanding the site without us seeing the procurements. They’re expanding this facility in the face of these sanctions. It looks like they were able to do this without buying more stuff,” said Jeffrey Lewis. This implies a domestic capability to produce specialty metals and other components for centrifuges. Rick Gladstone and Gerry Mullany of The New York Times have the story. http://ow.ly/nKmee

Analysis - Full ISIS brief “Recent Doubling of Floor Space at North Korean Gas Centrifuge Plant” by David Albright and Robert Avagyan here. http://ow.ly/nKmvM

B-61 got more expensive - The lifetime cost of the new guided tailkit on the B-61 bomb is expected to be $3.7 billion, according to the program’s latest selected acquisition report. This cost is separate from the estimated $10.1 billion to upgrade the B-61 nuclear warhead.

--The Pentagon plans to spend $1 billion through 2020 to develop the tailkit, producing a total of 813 tailkits. Inside Defense has the story. (paywall) http://bit.ly/11OQf9E

New, stealthy and solid gold - The B61 bomb would cost more than twice its weight in gold, and the proposed new tailkit would “transform the B61 into the world’s first nuclear “smart” bomb for delivery on the new, stealthy, and costly F35 bomber,” write Daryl Kimball and Jay Coghlan in the Albuquerque Journal.

--“With the end of the Cold War, there is still no identifiable threat that would justify this expensive and potentially provocative new military capability.” The authors argue Congress needs to take a closer look at the B61 and consider less expensive alternatives. http://bit.ly/11OSo5n

Refocusing the debate - Since Hassan Rouhani’s election to the Iranian presidency many have debated whether the new leader is a moderate. This debate “misses the point.” Instead, the focus should be on whether the Rouhani administration will be able to “deal forthrightly with the P5+1.” The good news, “Rouhani has demonstrated an ability to deal constructively with Western leaders: This is where American policymakers and analysts—interested in overcoming the nuclear impasse—should rightly focus.”

--Threats of military action, and ratcheting up sanctions will “torpedo any chance of rapprochement.” American leaders “should set out to work with the new Iranian president to see if a mutually agreeable compromise—one that recognizes Iran’s nuclear rights and addresses the international community’s concerns—is possible,” write Matthew Duss and Lawrence Korb in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://ow.ly/nKjrU

Rouhani and negotiations - “One of the most problematic aspects of the U.S.-Iranian relationship is that when one side has seemed willing to talk, the other side has not,” writes Joe Cirincione. Given recent signs from Iran’s new president, it appears that “a window is opening up that could allow for the negotiation of a deal that would prevent Iran from sprinting to a nuclear bomb and begin the process of normalizing relations between the two nations.” Full article in The Interdependent. http://bit.ly/13QsY4S

Tweet - @IISS_org: US must seize chance on new #nuke talks w/ #Iran, else hardliners may undercut prez @HassanRouhani: @DEsfandiary. fb.me/GUK901z4

Flagging relations - Two shootings this week have escalated already heightened tensions between India and Pakistan. Earlier this week, five Indian soldiers were killed as a result of an alleged ambush by Pakistani special forces, and today a Pakistani civilian was seriously injured by Indian troops.

--The two nuclear-armed neighbors have suspended scheduled talks since January, “when an Indian soldier was beheaded in border clashes...Diplomats on both sides have since held several meetings in an attempt to thaw relations,” report Niharika Mandhana and Saeed Shah of The Wall Street Journal.” http://ow.ly/nKq90

Report - “Reaching for an Audience: U.S. Public Diplomacy Towards Iran” by Lívia Pontes Fialho and Matthew Wallin of the American Security Project. http://bit.ly/16CvPmc

Events:

--Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu meet with Secretary of State John Kerry and Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel (tentative). August 9.

--International Day Against Nuclear Tests. August 29. Details here. http://ow.ly/nG4Im