Report Shows Iran Complying with Deal, Making Progress With IAEA Probe

On the radar: Program frozen, PMD issues remain; Talking with Moscow; INF talks set; Mutual nuclear deterrence still a thing; Turkish missile defense; Missing cesium; and the “Daisy Ad” turns 50.

September 8, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

IAEA report analysis - “Iran is making progress on the additional measures it agreed to take in July to roll back parts of its nuclear program, according to the most recent quarterly report by the IAEA,” writes Kelley Davenport in an analysis of the IAEA report for the Arms Control Association.

--Top Points: “Iran is continuing to implement all of its commitments under the JPOA; Iran is making progress on the new actions it pledged to take as part of the agreement to extend its negotiations with the P5+1; Iran has completed three of five actions it pledged to take as part of its cooperation with the IAEA’s investigation into past military actions.”

--“The incomplete activities are two of the so-called possible military dimensions (PMDs) that the IAEA laid out in its November 2011 quarterly report. Iran’s delay in providing information on the two PMD actions is a serious problem, and it is essential that Tehran work with the agency to complete these activities in a timely fashion. However, this delay should not disrupt the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 that are set to resume on Sept. 18.” Read the full analysis here. http://bit.ly/1rH3INo

Full report - “Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran” from the IAEA. Sept. 5, 2014. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1oYtPKq

Keep talking - The West needs to maintain diplomatic dialogue with Moscow argue Ambassadors Jack F. Matlock Jr., Thomas R. Pickering and James F. Collins in the New York Times. “As three former United States ambassadors who served in Moscow…we [have] seen the high price paid when relations and dialogue between Washington and Moscow break down.”

--“Each time relations broke down, there was a high cost to the cause of peace and security for both the United States and Russia, as well as their allies. Our experience convinces us that creative, disciplined, serious active diplomacy — through both official and unofficial channels — provides the one path out of destructive crises and a reliance on violence and confrontation.” http://nyti.ms/1lNfTba

INF talks - “Russian and U.S. officials will meet in Moscow on Thursday to discuss a 1987 arms control treaty whose future could be in doubt,” reports Reuters. http://reut.rs/YpPRjZ

Honesty is good policy - “What is often forgotten about the Cold War arms race is that it was not only a competition for bigger and more destructive weapons..The Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty was a worthy attempt to reverse this mind-set and eliminate the missiles,” writes The Washington Post editorial board.

--“If there are loose bolts or squeaky joints in the [INF] after a generation, the right course of action is to address them squarely, and openly, rather than revert to mistrust and deception. There is enough of that already from Russia’s misadventure in Ukraine.” http://wapo.st/1wdZjSz

Mutual deterrence a fact of life - “Vladimir Putin just threatened to rain death and destruction down on us. Now calm down,” writes Jeffrey Lewis for Foreign Policy. “I don't think that any nuclear-armed power, out of the blue, would launch a nuclear attack against the United States or even an allied capital. But the same applies to the United States: Washington would never initiate a nuclear war with Russia.”

--“the centerpiece to Putin's strategy is a de facto neutral Germany that prevents NATO from offering a robust defense of its easternmost members...Using nuclear weapons is, at a basic level, contrary to this strategy...Putin wants to take Ukraine, but he needs to do so in small pieces. Nuking Warsaw, of course, throws that strategy out the window.”

--“The United States needs to understand Putin's basic strategy and obstruct it -- and you can bet that if Washington succeeds in doing this, the Russian president will certainly threaten to nuke us again. It's a temper tantrum, backed up with real firepower. It's time to remember that we're the ones wearing the big-boy pants.” Read the full column. http://atfp.co/1uG4r0N

Wonkcast - “Did Vladimir Putin just threaten the West with nuclear weapons? Could nuclear weapons be used in Europe? What is Russia’s nuclear doctrine? Does a nuclear balance make the world safe for conventional war?” Jeffrey Lewis and Aaron Stein answer this and more in their latest Arms Control Wonk podcast. http://bit.ly/ZewVVm

--You can also subscribe on iTunes. http://bit.ly/1lQZaE5

Radioactive material missing - “Last week authorities in Kazakhstan announced that a container holding cesium-137, a radioactive material, disappeared, possibly after falling off a truck. Details of the incident are sparse. The Kazakh government says they are actively searching for the container, which weighs over 100 pounds, but would not or could not say where it came from, or where it might be headed,” writes Peter Moskowitz about lost radiological materials and the dirty bomb threat. Read the full story at Al Jazeera. http://alj.am/1we2MAo

Turkish missile defense in limbo - Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has said that Turkey is holding talks with France on the purchase of a long-range missile defense system after disagreements with China, which was originally awarded the contract. The initial choice of the Chinese company CPMIEC had drawn criticism from Western allies as the company is under U.S. sanctions for violations of the Iran, North Korea and Syria Non-proliferation Act. Reuters has the full story here. http://reut.rs/1nFS40n

Quick Hits:

--“Could be years before New Mexico nuclear waste dump fully reopens, official says” by Laura Zuckerman for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1lN3gwF

--“IAEA sees signs North Korea reactor may be operating” by Fredrik Dahl for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1q6ZEqo

--“Iran Arrests Suspected Nuclear Plant Saboteur” reports the Associated Press. http://apne.ws/1qA4w6s

Events:

--“Iran Negotiations Update: Verification vs. Breakout Capacity” a discussion with Daryl Kimball and Stephen Rademaker, moderated by Barbara Slavin. Sept. 9 from 9:30-11:00am at The Atlantic Council. http://bit.ly/1ogX22L

--“Debate: U.S. No First Use,” Walt Slocombe and Jack Mendelsohn engage in a Project on Nuclear Issues debate. Sept. 10 from 6:00-8:00pm at CSIS. Details here. http://bit.ly/1kYCdhB

--”Ending Nuclear Explosive Testing: A Discussion with Ambassador Thomas Graham” Sept. 12 from 12:00-2:00pm at George Washington University. Details here. http://bit.ly/1oYlo1y

--”Squaring the Iranian Nuclear Circle: Defining Uranium Enrichment Capacity and Other Key Issues” Discussion featuring Kelsey Davenport, James Walsh and Daryl Kimball. Sept. 15 from 9:30-11:00am at the Carnegie Endowment. Details here. http://bit.ly/1uG7HJo

--“Nuclear Weapons Testing: History, Progress, Challenges” a Special Event to Mark International Day Against Nuclear Tests, with presentations from: Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz, Under Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller, NNSA Administrator Frank G. Klotz and Dr. Lassina Zerbo, Executive Secretary of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization. Sept. 15 from 12:30-5:00pm at the U.S. Institute of Peace. http://bit.ly/1lynIS4

--International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors meeting. Sept. 15-19 in Vienna.

--Center for Strategic and International Studies Project on Nuclear Issues presents Ambassador Bonnie Jenkins, Department of State's Coordinator for Threat Reduction Programs. Sept. 16 from 12:00-1:30pm at CSIS. Details here. http://bit.ly/W6m7Xj

--“Iranian Attitudes on Nuclear Negotiations with the P5+1" featuring Ebrahim Mohseni and Steven Kull. Sept. 17 from 10:00-11:30am at the Carnegie Endowment. Details here. http://bit.ly/1tqCz3r

--”The Contribution of the National Laboratory System to U.S. National Security” discussion with Paul Hommert, Charles McMillan and Adam Schwartz. Sept. 17th from 5:30-7:00PM at George Washington University. Details here. http://bit.ly/1q6Y9IP

--Scottish Independence Referendum, Sept. 18. http://bit.ly/1s2pX0q

--Eric Schlosser discusses his book, Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety, at the World Affairs Council of Northern California. Sept. 29th in San Francisco. Details here. http://bit.ly/1qrePcW

Dessert:

Daisy turns 50 - “It was 50 years ago [yesterday] that the Lyndon Johnson campaign launched one of the most important political ads in American history.”

--”With all the subtlety of the atom bomb that co-starred in the spot, "Daisy" -- officially known as "Peace, Little Girl" -- portrayed opponent Barry Goldwater as a danger to the country; likely saved the Johnson team millions in extra ad spending; and showed other political campaigns the kind of destruction TV advertising could do by ushering in a new age of attack ads.” Ken Wheaton revisits “Daisy” for Advertising Age. http://bit.ly/1An6jwO