Support for New ICBM Withers

February 19, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

New ICBM is dead, long live the old ICBM - “Last week, at a conference full of advocates for modernizing the United States’ nuclear triad, something big happened: the idea of developing a new, nuclear-armed, ground-based long-range missile fell off the table,” writes Stephen Young in Defense One. “The nuclear triad — missiles, bombers and submarines that can deliver nuclear weapons — is under fire from all sides, as that force needs upgrading right when there is little budget or public appetite to do so. The Air Force is considering options for replacing or extending the life of the Minuteman III missile.”

--“But a major blow to developing a new missile came on February 4, with the publication of an Air Force-funded RAND study. That detailed analysis found that an ‘all-new ICBM system will likely cost almost twice (and perhaps even three times) as much as incremental modernization and sustainment of the MM III system,’” Young says. “The impact of that study was felt at last week’s three-day Nuclear Deterrence Summit.” At the summit, esteemed experts and proponents of the nuclear triad coalesced around the idea that the Air Force should simply extend the life of the Minuteman III and not buy a new ICBM.

--”With that, the case was closed. In the current budget environment, the outcome is inevitable. The Air Force will not build a new ICBM. The new question: When it becomes necessary to extend the life of the Minuteman, will the missile still be required?” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1dMuNIL

Don’t need it after all - “The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration is opting to postpone work on a controversial interoperable warhead,” reports Global Security Newswire. “Don Cook, who leads the Energy Department agency's weapons program, told the publication on Wednesday that recent assessments of the two weapons the project was intended to replace -- the W-78 warhead used on land-based strategic ballistic missiles and the W-88 warhead fitted to submarine-launched Trident missiles -- revealed they could remain in active use for roughly another 15 years.”

--“The initiative to build a nuclear warhead-modernization package that could be used by both the Air Force and Navy faced considerable opposition on Capitol Hill. Lawmakers voiced concerns that it would cost more money to design the interoperable warhead than to revamp the two weapons it was intended to replace. Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1mt8X2u

Promising talks - “Six world powers and Iran strived at a second day of talks in Vienna on Wednesday to map out a broad agenda for reaching an ambitious final settlement to the decade-old standoff over Tehran's nuclear program,” write Fredrik Dahl and Justyna Pawlak. ”The talks are going surprisingly well. There haven't been any real problems so far," according to a senior Western diplomat. Read the full article here. http://reut.rs/MzR4it

--See also: ”Aragachi Says Iran Nuclear Deal is ‘Difficult, Not Impossible,’” by Ladane Nasseri in Bloomberg. http://bloom.bg/1nNHXWL

Support for weapons ban grows - “A number of nations appear ready to rally behind a demand for setting a deadline to begin negotiations for a global ban on nuclear arms,” Global Security Newswire reports. Countries that participated in a conference last week in Mexico on the humanitarian consequences of nuclear weapons coalesced around the idea, which could come to fruition at a follow-on conference in Austria late this year.” http://bit.ly/1nNDl32

Uranium exports and the NPT - “Australia is optimistic it can quickly conclude uranium-export talks with nuclear-armed India,” Global Security Newswire reports. “Australia holds the planet's largest known uranium reserves, which energy-hungry India wants access to so it can expand its nuclear-power industry. Canberra in recent years reversed course on its longstanding position against selling uranium to nations that have not signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. India developed nuclear weapons outside the international accord.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1m9Pdxg

China wants plutonium out of Japan - “China has urged Japan to return over 300 kilograms of weapons grade plutonium to the Unites States and to explain how it intends to resolve its surplus plutonium problem,” write Shaun Burnie and Mycle Shneider for the International Panel on Fissile Materials. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman stated: “China attaches great importance to nuclear proliferation risks and potential threats posed by nuclear materials to regional security. China has grave concerns over Japan's possession of weapons-grade nuclear materials... Japan's failure to hand back its stored weapons-grade nuclear materials to the relevant country has ignited concerns of the international community including China." Full story here. http://bit.ly/1h6jf1Q

Events:

--“Dealing WIth Iran: Where Are We Now and How Did We Get Here?” Webinar with Robin Wright and Kate Gould. Feb. 19 from 2:00-3:00. Register here. http://bit.ly/1mcRAmA

--“A Preview of the 2014 Nuclear Security Summit.” Discussion with Graham Allison. Feb. 20 from 6:00-8:00 at George Washington University, Lindner Family Commons, Room 602, 1957 E St. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1iR0oZY

--“Toward a World Without Nuclear Weapons Testing.” Discussion with Karipbek Kuyukov and Roman Vassilenko, Ambassador of Kazakhstan. Feb. 26 from 12:30-2:00, George Washington University, Funger Hall room 209, 2201 G Street NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1f9ozEl