Time to “Make Every Effort” for a Deal with Iran

On the radar: More for more; Eyes over North Korea; Testing B61 tail; Boosting the BUFF; Lowballing nuke costs; Water worsening Pakistan’s instability; and 60 years after the armistice.

July 23, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Seize, not squander - After Iran’s new president Hassan Rouhani is sworn in, “The United States must test whether Iran’s new political alignment will produce just happy talk or real policy change,” writes Cliff Kupchan. ”The best test would be a more creative and forthcoming proposal on an interim nuclear deal [to include] more sanctions relief for more Iranian concessions on the most threatening aspects of their nuclear program.”

--”The West has effectively used sanctions to rattle Iran. But sanctions will not have succeeded until Iran’s nuclear program is tamed. Now is the time to make every effort to reach a deal.” Full story in The New York Times. http://ow.ly/neW2f

Sanctions split - “Congress is considering a new series of hard-hitting Iran sanctions on everything from mining and construction to the Islamic republic's already besieged oil industry, despite concern from the Obama administration that the measures could interfere with nuclear negotiations,” writes Bradley Klapper for AP.

--”Despite wide bilateral support in Congress for tougher sanctions, some Democrats and Republicans are embracing the administration's cautious approach. In a letter last week to Obama, 18 GOP House members joined more than 100 of their Democratic colleagues in urging the president to ‘reinvigorate U.S. efforts to secure a negotiated nuclear agreement.’” Full story here. http://yhoo.it/18xwvt9

Quote - “The growth of the nuclear budget comes at the expense of other defense programs; if we invest more in nuclear weapons, we are investing less in our military forces and the tools they need to keep America safe. Eliminating overkill capabilities and investing in the tools our forces need to combat 21st-century threats makes sense,” writes Rear Adm. Stuart Platt (USN, ret.) in Stars and Stripes. http://1.usa.gov/1dSBFAh

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Delayed or abandoned? - Satellite imagery showing “unfinished roads and grass growing on building foundations,” suggests that North Korea has halted construction work at a site intended to launch larger and longer range rockets. The reasons for the halt are up for debate. “One theory is that equipment and construction troops sent from the site to help repair widespread rain damage last year may still be at other posts.”

--Another theory suggests “the work stoppage could reflect a decision in Pyongyang to slow or stop building larger rockets... [which] could have important implications for North Korea's space launch program as well as the development of long-range missiles intended to deliver nuclear weapons," says former State Department official Joel Wit. Foster Klug at AP has the full story. http://ow.ly/neRz1

Parading for Google - “Google Earth Provides Glimpse Into North Korea’s Latest Military Parade Preparation” by OSIMINT. http://bit.ly/18xsvsl

Boeing and the B-61 - Boeing is slated set to begin testing “how various military planes would drop the B-61 nuclear bomb once it is refurbished with a new tail kit.” The contractor’s last hurdle before the November check-up “involves updating the electronics to survive all required environments the B-61 will be exposed to,” reports Global Security Newswire. http://ow.ly/neQmj

BUFF upgrade - The B-52, which first took to the skies over 50 years ago, is getting an upgrade. Over the decades, the B-52 has undergone a series of advancements. The most recent modification to modernize the highly adaptable plane includes “adding digital communications infrastructure including satellite comms and a line-of-sight data-link.”

--”With low operating costs compared to other warplanes and an airframe life stretching at least into the 2040s, the B-52's future is bright,” particularly at a time when the president’s Asia pivot “places renewed emphasis on air and naval forces,” writes David Axe in War is Boring. Full piece here. http://ow.ly/neMEY

Underestimating - Asked if the U.S. could save considerably by reducing its nuclear arsenal, Deputy Secretary of Defense Ash Carter recently argued nuclear weapons are not “a big swinger of the budget” - costing “only” $16 billion a year, by Carter’s estimation. Bill Hartung at The Huffington Post disputes Carter’s calculation, arguing he “vastly overstated the strategic value of nuclear weapons while drastically understating their budgetary costs.”

--”Even by Washington standards, the nation is spending real money on nuclear weapons -- money that would be better used for virtually any other purpose at a time of tight budgets and shifting national security priorities. The high cost of nukes should motivate us to do what we should be doing anyway -- getting rid of weapons that serve no useful purpose and do far more harm than good to U.S. and global security,” writes Hartung. Full post here. http://ow.ly/neGmz

Water and instability - ”Water deficiency, and how Pakistan responds to it, has the propensity to shape the country significantly over the next several years and decades. Without any meaningful action, the future looks alarming. A growing population without the resources it needs to survive, let alone thrive economically, will throw the country into a period of instability that may be far worse than anything we see today,” writes Aziz Nayani in The Atlantic. Full story here. http://bit.ly/12fI0pr

Speed read -

--”Tight IAEA Inspection Regime Hampers Iran's Nuclear Breakout” by Barbara Slaving for Al-Monitor. http://bit.ly/13Y6EFh

Events:

--”Iran: How a Third Tier Cyber Power Can Still Threaten The United States,” Barbara Slavin, Jason Healey, and Dmitri Alperovitch. July 29, 9:30-11:00 AM @ Cosmos Club. Details here http://ow.ly/nc561

--”Nuclear Deterrence, Prompt Strike and Triad Perspectives,” Breakfast seminar with Lt. Gen. James Kowalski, Commander, Global Strike Command. July 31 from 8:00-9:00 AM @ the Capitol Hill Club. http://bit.ly/19dqS69

--"2013 PONI Summer Conference." July 31-August 1. Sandia National Laboratories. Details here. http://ow.ly/ncmCN

History lesson:

The “forgotten war” - 60 years after representatives from the UN and North Korea signed the armistice that halted the Korean War, James Wright suggests that readers should honor those who served and sacrificed in that war and reflect on what can be learned it.

--”Korea established a pattern that has been unfortunately followed in American wars in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. These are wars without declaration and without the political consensus and the resolve to meet specific and changing goals. They are improvisational wars. They are dangerous...it is neither politically nor morally defensible to send the young to war without a public consensus that the goals are understood and essential, and the restraints and the costs are acceptable,” says Wright. Full article here. http://bit.ly/13AAeEV