You Don’t Want Trump to Have the Nuclear Codes

Trump’s nuclear doctrine - “Trump has repeatedly declined to rule out the use of nuclear weapons, saying he reserves the option to use them in Europe and the Middle East. Trump has also said he might welcome seeing certain U.S. allies, including Japan, acquire atomic arms to better defend themselves without U.S. assistance. During a March appearance on MSNBC’s ‘Hardball,’ Trump demurred when the show’s host, Chris Matthews, pressed him to rule out nuclear strikes,” writes Michael Crowley for Politico.

--“‘He talks about nuclear weapons very loosely, casually—as if they’re just another tool in the toolbox,’ said Joe Cirincione, president of Ploughshares Fund, a nonprofit that advocates nuclear arms reductions. While Trump’s comments have drawn widespread condemnation, they do not defy America’s nuclear doctrine, which reserves the right to use nuclear weapons—even as a ‘first strike’ against an adversary fighting with only conventional weapons.” Full piece here. http://politi.co/2aw7xC8

See also - “Dear Donald Trump: Here is why we don’t simply nuke the Islamic State,” by Philip Bump for The Washington Post. http://bit.ly/2aXmD43

The deadly paradox of nuclear weapons - “Donald J. Trump’s remarks on nuclear weapons have brought him, at times, to a question: Why should he be constrained from ever using them? The question has, like so many of Mr. Trump’s comments, sent shock waves. But nuclear experts say it is shocking not just for the statements themselves, but for the uncomfortable truths they expose, perhaps unwittingly, about nuclear weapons,” writes Max Fischer for The New York Times.

--“There is little in Mr. Trump’s comments to suggest that he intended to highlight this contradiction, but that is what he did in asking why the United States bothers to develop extravagantly expensive weapons it never intends to set off. ‘If it seems scary or dangerous that we hinge as much of our security as we do on this contradiction, that’s because it is,’ said Kingston Reif, a nuclear expert at the Washington-based Arms Control Association… If it shocks when politicians make such statements, perhaps that is in part because the logic of nuclear weapons can be shocking.” Full article here. http://nyti.ms/2aXmNZr

Tweet - @SecDef19: Did you know that US policy allows first use of nuclear weapons? @TomCollina explains why that needs to change http://bit.ly/2ay78QL

Editor’s note - Early Warning will be on hiatus for the rest of August. We will publish a special edition in the event of any breaking news.

How the nuclear football works - “In a presidential campaign, America confronts its own destructive power and the single person entrusted with it: Whose finger is on the button? Fact check: There is no button. There is a briefcase, though. It follows the president everywhere — onto Air Force One, onto the golf course, onto elevators. Inside is a manual for conducting nuclear war. A how-to, really,” writes Dan Zak for The Washington Post.

--“At the president’s disposal right now are about 2,000 nuclear warheads deployed on various ‘delivery vehicles’ around the planet. ‘The longer I’m in the Senate, the more I fear for a major error that somebody makes,’ Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) told CQ last month after a hearing on plans to develop a new nuclear cruise missile that could cost $20 billion. ‘One man, the president, is responsible. He makes an error and, who knows, it’s Armageddon.’” Full article here. http://wapo.st/2aizpw1

Tweet - @ArmsControlNow: WATCH: UN Team installs a nuclear test detector in one of the most remote locations on Earth http://bit.ly/2aSSXHg

U.S. nuclear materials vulnerable - “The clandestine group’s goal was clear: Obtain the building blocks of a radioactive ‘dirty bomb’ — capable of poisoning a major city for a year or more — by openly purchasing the raw ingredients from authorized sellers inside the United States. It should have been hard… But this secret group of fewer than 10 people — formed in April 2014 in North Dakota, Texas and Michigan — discovered that getting a license and then ordering enough materials to make a dirty bomb was strikingly simple in one of their three tries,” writes Patrick Malone for the Center for Public Integrity.

--“Here’s how they did it: In Dallas, they incorporated a shell company they never intended to run and rented office space in a nondescript industrial park, merely to create an address for the license application… When the state’s inspector visited the fake office, he saw it was empty and had no security precautions. But members of the group assured him that once they had a license, they would be able to make the security and safety improvements. So the inspector, who always carried licenses with him, handed them one on the spot.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/2axTj4Z

Iran payment unrelated to captives - “Reports of $400 million paid in cash to Iran soon after four Americans were released from prison in January has breathed new life into charges that Washington paid a ransom for their freedom… In fact, the money was earmarked to settle a decades-old Iranian claim on the money, plus $1.3 billion in interest. The funds were deposited by Iran before the 1979 revolution to buy U.S. military equipment, and they were frozen under President Jimmy Carter after Americans were taken hostage at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran” reports Carol Morello for The Washington Post.

--“Iran has been trying to recover the money ever since, at one point contending that it was owed $10 billion or more with accrued interest… Former diplomats and scholars of Iran say that the transaction is as much about perception as provable reality. ‘The timing may look awkward, but on the other hand, this dispute had been festering for more than three decades, and it was good to get it resolved — and to get Jason and the others out,’ said Barbara Slavin, acting director of the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council.” Full piece here. http://wapo.st/2aPlFsO

Quick Hits:

--“The hidden Base that could have ended the world,” by Richard Hollingham for the BBC. http://bbc.in/2atrclp

--“The Nuclear Stakes In This, And Every, Election,” by Derek Johnson for the Huffington Post. http://huff.to/2aPch8u

--“Latest North Korea missile launch lands near Japan waters, alarms Tokyo,” by Ju-Min Park and James Pearson for Reuters. http://reut.rs/2b166v1

--“If President Trump decided to use nukes, he could do it easily,” by Zack Beauchamp for VOX. http://bit.ly/2b3c9j2

--“Rethinking Nuclear Deterrence: Korea and No First Use,” by Gregory Kulacki for All Things Nuclear. http://bit.ly/2ax083g

Events:

--"Bike Around the Bomb," by Global Zero. August 6 at 10:00 a.m. at Lafayette Square, Washington. http://bit.ly/29nDRaF

--“Tri-Valley CAREs, Action at Livermore to commemorate the atomic bombings. August 9 at 8:00 a.m., Vasco Road and Patterson Pass Road, Livermore, CA. http://bit.ly/2at9eBh

--Screening of Command and Control, September 23 through 29 at the Landmark Theatres E Street Cinema, 555 11th St. NW, Washington. http://bit.ly/2aXwKFZ