Rouhani, Negotiations and the Nuclear File

On the radar: New president, new opportunity; Poor time for pressure; Moscow marginalized; Russian view on INF; the Most dangerous country; and the Doomsday caucus rides again.

August 6, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Opportunity - The recent inauguration of Iran’s new president - Hassan Rouhani - offers Washington and Tehran a unique opportunity to reach a diplomatic solution on Iran’s nuclear program. Rouhani, seen as a more centrist politician, served as chief nuclear negotiator in the early 2000s, when Iran suspended its enrichment program and sought US engagement.

--In order to make headway with Iran, President Obama needs to expend political capital on the issue and “overcome the belligerence of Congress,” writes The Guardian editorial board. Full editorial here. http://ow.ly/nFRw8

WH statement - “The inauguration of President Rouhani presents an opportunity for Iran to act quickly to resolve the international community’s deep concerns over Iran’s nuclear program. Should this new government choose to engage substantively and seriously to meet its international obligations and find a peaceful solution to this issue, it will find a willing partner in the United States,” said the White House Press Secretary on the occasion of President Rouhani’s inauguration. Full release here. http://1.usa.gov/197gXjg

Tweet - @AlMonitor: Ashton congratulates Iran’s Rouhani, urges renewed nuclear talks #BackChannel. almon.co/bs9

Tweet - @BBCBreaking: Iran's new president Hasan Rouhani says Iran prepared to enter "serious" negotiations on #nuclear issue, speaking at first media conference.

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Tweet - @AP: Japan commemorates 68th anniversary of Hiroshima bombing with pledges to seek, eliminate nuclear arms. apne.ws/13VzBBR

Tweet - @wellerstein: That moment when you realize you've been assigned a crap story on the day of a big story. Boston Globe, Aug. 7, 1945. http://t.co/D4LDALpw5d

Imprudent petition - 76 senators, led by Sens. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC), sent a letter to President Obama calling on the administration to tighten sanctions, and “make military threats more credible.” While the letter may be “well-intentioned”, its assessment of the present state of relations and prescriptions it offers are seriously misguided, writes Greg Thielmann at The National Interest.

--“Sanctions will not by themselves halt Iran’s nuclear program.” Increased sanctions will likely only “harden Iran’s resolve and undermine the prospects for persuading its leaders to compromise.” Military threats will not bring Iran to the negotiating table, nor will a military strike prevent a nuclear armed Iran, writes Thielmann. Full story here. http://ow.ly/nFTs7

Risking irrelevance - The Obama administration would like to improve the flagging US-Russia relationship and get agreement on nuclear arms cuts. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin shows little interest in cooperating with the U.S. - as exemplified by Russia’s positions on Syria and the silliness around Edward Snowden - and risks irrelevance with the White House by doing so, writes Steven Pifer.

--Unlike the “reset” of 2009-2010, the political dynamics of the US-Russia relationship may not favor cooperation, notes Pifer. “The U.S. president needs Moscow far less than four years ago,” as Putin has become a less useful international partner, and Russian cooperation on Afghanistan and Iran is less important. In that case, “the White House may decide that Putin has little to offer — and thus does not really matter — for Obama's goals in his last three years in office.” Full post in The Moscow Times. http://bit.ly/13JWJEv

INF perspective - The 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) has come under fire in Russia and the U.S. from arms control opponents and those who to relive the exciting days of aggressive Cold War missile deployments in Europe. Russian analyst Alexei Arbatov argues that it is not in Russia’s interest to break with the INF treaty, as it would provoke a US response, give a rally point to NATO, put pressure on Russia’s military modernization budgets and pose high costs to Russia’s reputation.

--Arbatov argues that entering into arms control treaties is very difficult, and breaking them is easy. However, the experience of the last decade shows that the denunciation of treaties does not strengthen, but weakens the security of states. Full article in Russian here, with a rough translation from Google. http://bit.ly/19KNCuy

Pakistan - “The Most Dangerous Country on Earth” by Joe Cirincione in The Georgetown Journal of International Affairs. (paywall) http://bit.ly/14weHAv

Parochial interests - The Senate Appropriations Committee moved to scrap funds for reducing the ICBM fleet under the New START treaty by blocking the Air Force from conducting an environmental impact statement on the ICBM fleet. The blocking language in the bill was sponsored by Sens. Jon Tester and John Hoeven of Montana, which hosts one-third of the ICBM fleet out of Malmstrom Air Force Base. From Jenn Rowell of The Great Falls Tribune. http://gftrib.com/11JUGTj

Tweet - @NNSANews: NNSA and Tajikistan’s Nuclear and Radiation Safety Agency sign MOU to combat smuggling of radiological materials. http://t.co/h5reNjc4bU

History lesson - “Venting and Complaining: How the United States and the Soviet Union tried to conceal the problem of radioactive leaks from underground nuclear tests.” by William Burr in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/16rS9Nd

Tweet - @daxe: This Nuclear Outboard Motor Was a Terrible, Terrible Idea http://t.co/B2i7jjNQCP

Speed reads -

--“More anxious to agree than to disagree” by Ambs. William Luers, and Thomas Pickering, and Jessica Mathews at Reuters. http://ow.ly/nFOxP

--“Snowden Asylum Could Blow Up Nuke Talks” by John Hudson of The Cable. http://atfp.co/12Xy6JE

--”Fill nonproliferation post to keep Americans safe” by Norman Seip, Stephen Cheney, and John Adams at Stars and Stripes. http://ow.ly/nFPKm

--”Time for a Deal with Iran” by Laicie Heeley at The National Interest. http://ow.ly/nFYgT

Events:

--Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu meet with Secretary of State John Kerry and Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel (tentative). August 9.

--International Day Against Nuclear Tests. August 29. Details here. http://ow.ly/nG4Im