Responding to Syria Could Complicate Opportunity with Iran

On the radar: How will Iran react; the “Reset” in memoriam; Pakistan and the IC; Stockpiles, 1945-2013; US envoy out, Rodman in; Plutonium polygon; and When “bunker busting” used to require megatons.

September 3, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Iran & Syria - “As an American military strike looms over Syria, Iran is weighing its decades-long alliance with Syria against its own pledges to re-engage with the US and the West over its nuclear program and other issues,” writes Scott Peterson for The Christian Science Monitor.

--The newly elected government of President Hassan Rouhani has struck a more moderate tone, both seeking engagement with the West on nuclear issues and condemning the chemical attacks in Syria. However, Iran keeps Syria as a regional ally. If the US commences strikes, it is unclear how Iran would react or to what extent the regime would be able to keep the Syria crisis from undercutting nuclear negotiations. http://bit.ly/15UfetQ

Backchannel - ”Oman sultan's visit reportedly a mediation bid between Iran and US,” by Paul Richter of The LA Times. http://lat.ms/18A44Ii

The fate of the reset - The “reset” with Russia yielded “tangible successes in arms control, trade and military cooperation,” but seems to have run its course, writes Peter Baker in a frontpage story explaining the cooling of US-Russia relations in The New York Times.

--Behind the scenes: To “reset the reset” last April, then-National Security Advisor presented Vladimir Putin with a package of ideas on nuclear arms cuts, missile defense data sharing and expanded trade - ideas Russia had sought in the past. Putin read the letter and commented “I agree with this” and “I don’t agree with that.” The White House hoped this would lead to open negotiations on a new nuclear treaty, only to have the offer snubbed by Putin at the June G8 meeting. As a way of testing Russia, President Obama announced in Berlin his willingness to continue reducing nuclear stockpiles with Russia. Again, Moscow showed no interest, and relations have only worsened as the Snowden affair dragged on and Syria crisis ramped up.

--Some blame Putin. “It will be very difficult to make headway as long as he’s there,” said former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. Going forward, the goal is to prevent further deterioration, however, “the potential for something worse is pretty high,” according to a former administration official, writes Baker. Full story here. http://ow.ly/ovZRX

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The Pakistan threat - The U.S. intelligence community is expanding its surveillance of Pakistan, according to leaked summaries of the classified US intelligence budget. Pakistan - a politically unstable country with extremist elements, nuclear weapons and a penchant for trafficking illicit weapons - is a unique threat and difficult intelligence target.

--”U.S. intelligence agencies are focused on two particularly worrisome scenarios: the possibility that Pakistan’s nuclear facilities might come under attack by Islamist militants, as its army headquarters in Rawalpindi did in 2009, and even greater concern that Islamist militants might have penetrated the ranks of Pakistan’s military or intelligence services, putting them in a position to launch an insider attack or smuggle out nuclear material,” write Greg Miller, Craig Whitlock and Barton Gellman for The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1dD8yFt

Global stockpiles - Approximately 125,000 nuclear warheads have been built since 1945, 97% of them produced by the U.S. and Russia. Today, the nine nuclear countries possess a total of about 17,200 warheads, according to new analysis from the Federation of American Scientists.

--Full Report: ”Global nuclear weapons inventories, 1945-2013” by Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1dDsVSO

Tweet - @AP: BREAKING: Israeli Defense Ministry says it has carried out missile test in Mediterranean Sea

Background - “Why Is the Use of Chemical Weapons So Repulsive?” by Daryl Kimball in Arms Control Now. http://bit.ly/1dDfana

Speed Reads:

--”Dennis Rodman Returns to North Korea to Visit Kim” by Gerry Mullany of The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/18A34UE

--”At 11th Hour, North Korea Cancels Visit By U.S. Envoy” by Choe Sang-hun of The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/15TWRFD

--”Transfer of Georgian HEU spent fuel from Dounreay to Savannah River Site” by Pavel Podvig of IPFM. http://bit.ly/17BH6ln

Events:

--”Guarding Against a Nuclear-Armed Iran: Proliferation Risks and Diplomatic Options.” Discussion with Amb. Thomas Pickering, David Albright, George Perkovich and Daryl Kimball. September 5 from 9:00-10:30 AM @ the Carnegie Endowment. Details and RSVP here. http://ceip.org/1dweZbK

--”The Path to Zero: The role of the United Nations in Nuclear Disarmament and Non-Proliferation.” September 5, 10:00 AM. Webcast here. http://webtv.un.org/

--”Prospects for a Diplomatic Solution with Iran,” Ray Takeyh, Joel Rubin, and Greg Thielmann. September 10, 12:30-2:00 PM @ The American Security Project. Details here. http://ow.ly/ow7H1

--”U.S.-Iran Reconciliation Under President Rouhani?” Haleh Esfandiari, Robert Einhorn, Kenneth Katzman. Moderated by Barbara Slavin. September 12, 9:30 AM @ the Atlantic Council. Details here. http://ow.ly/ow8uO

Dessert:

Oddly peaceful - “Kazakhstan’s steppe was ground zero for the Soviet Union’s atomic bomb. What does a nuclear wasteland look like? Wyoming,” writes Jacob Baynham for Slate. http://slate.me/15Ays3q

Bunker busters - Today’s bunker busting bombs - as would possibly be used in a strike on Syria - rely on highly accurate, deep-burying, non-nuclear bombs. Back in the Cold War, the U.S. relied upon a simpler solution: megatonnage. Until 2011, the U.S. still had within its stockpile the B-53 bomb. It was a nine-megaton monster that could “pulverize granite mountains and reduce whole cities to radioactive ash,” writes David Axe on the evolution of U.S. bunker busting bombs. http://bit.ly/1agxr9q