Toward an Effective Deal with Iran

November 14, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Lauren Mladenka

Benefits of a deal - “An interim agreement along the lines discussed in Geneva would not be a bad deal; rather, it would serve as a meaningful first step toward a comprehensive resolution to the Iranian nuclear challenge. As the Obama administration and its P5+1 partners work to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, Congress has an important role to play to ensure that any final accord advances U.S. national interests,” writes Colin Kahl in a new brief for the Center for a New American Security.

--”As it does so, however, lawmakers should resist the temptation to insist on an optimal but unachievable agreement. If we are to avoid the worst possible outcomes – unconstrained Iranian nuclearization or another major war in the Middle East – then a good-if-imperfect deal is clearly preferable to no deal at all.”

--”In particular, as U.S. negotiators work to get an initial agreement by the end of 2013 to halt the most troubling and urgent dimensions of Iran’s nuclear enterprise, Congress should refrain from imposing additional sanctions or taking other actions that would tie the hands of U.S. diplomats and undermine the prospects for success.”

--Full analysis: ”Inflection Point: Requirements for an Enduring Diplomatic Solution to the Iranian Nuclear Challenge” (pdf) http://bit.ly/HOHRQx

Effect of a deal - “Deal Could Double Iran breakout Time: Ex-US Official” by Laura Rozen of Al Monitor. http://bit.ly/1j7dErI

Do a Google first - The Air Force is overhauling its process for choosing new nuclear commanders and now plans to search their names on Google and check their mental and physical health records. “It might be worth knowing that before you nominate somebody for a key job. Some of this is common sense,” said Air Force chief Gen. Mark Welsh.

--This comes months after the Air Force fired Maj. Gen. Michael Carey, commander of all 450 Air Force nuclear-tipped ICBMs, for behavior linked to alcohol abuse. It also follows the firing of a Navy admiral who was second in command at U.S. Strategic Command. Robert Burns of AP has the story. http://wapo.st/1bqNaxj

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The sanctioneers - “U.S. Lawmakers Question Obama's Plea for Iran Sanctions Pause” by Patricia Zengerle and Timothy Gardner of Reuters. http://reut.rs/19nfaRa

Ask a professor - Question: “I think the regime in Iran is an inherently destabilizing force in the region, and I want the sanctions to force a regime change. What should I do?”

--Answer: “Oh, then you should totally vote for harsher sanctions. But after that...Repeat after me: sanctions, on their own, will not lead to a regime change in Iran...Economic coercion imposes some serious economic costs on the regime, which is why they're willing to talk about a nuclear deal. But that's a tangible negotiation. Regime change is more existential threat, and if that's the goal of the sanctions, then the sanctions will fail and fail spectacularly,” writes Dan Drezner.

--Question: “I want a nuclear deal, and I believe that it's the sanctions that got Iran to the negotiating table to begin with. Therefore, more sanctions will make them more willing to deal, right?”

--Answer: “The marginal impact of the extra sanctions will be outweighed by the fact that you've undercut your president, who's been asking you not to impose extra sanctions. From Iran's perspective, there is no point negotiating with the Obama administration if the president can't get Congress to lift sanctions if a deal is reached. So this wouldn't be a very smart gambit.” Full Q&A in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1eQyJt1

Cutting spending - There’s not much bipartisan success on budget issues in Congress these days. But one lawmaker sees room to succeed at trimming spending from controversial nuclear weapons projects. “It may seem irrational to be that optimistic in Congress, but … I am a Cub fan,” said Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Wrigley Field).

--Rep. Quigley, who nearly succeeded at cutting millions from the B61 bomb project this year, explains that he thinks there is space for a strategy to make deeper cuts to ICBM deployments and the B61, especially if the savings can be put to use for programs that enhance U.S. security or benefit the economy. Douglas Guarino of Global Security Newswire has the story. http://bit.ly/1hIFe3c

Israel assessment rejected - State Department officials rejected an Israeli assessment that international powers could roll back as much as 40% of sanctions against Iran as part of the ongoing nuclear talks as “inaccurate, exaggerated, and not based in reality,” writes Jay Solomon. Instead, “the U.S. and other powers are considering giving Iran what they describe as modest relief from punitive international sanctions in exchange for steps by Iran to halt its nuclear program.” The Wall Street Journal has the full story.http://on.wsj.com/1bqNNHg

Tweet - @fissilematerial: Final stages of the Megatons to Megawatts program: Last HEU-LEU program shipment to leave Russia. http://bit.ly/1e5I4dM

Tweet - @steven_pifer: Megatons to megawatts program with #Russia ending: turned 20,000 Russian nuclear warheads into electricity in US. http://bit.ly/1icS3jW

Impasse with Russia - "It's important to have Russia's support on both [arms control and missile defense]," said Madelyn Creedon, assistant secretary of Defense for global strategic affairs, adding, “To be frank we're not making much progress on that front but we'll continue to try.” Rachel Oswald of Global Security Newswire reports on the tough slog of working with Russia lately. http://bit.ly/17sJb28

Speed read:

--”How to Sell Arms and Influence People” by Rose Gottemoeller and James Miller in Bloomberg. http://bloom.bg/17wcK8z

Events:

--”Central Asia, Iran and the Nuclear Landscape in Asia.” Discussion at George Washington University, Linder Family Commons, Room 602, 1957 E St. NW. Nov. 14 from 9:00am-3:30pm. Register here.http://bit.ly/1akaijq

--”Reporting on Iran.” Discussion with Laura Rozen and Barbara Slavin at American Security Project, seventh floor, 1100 New York Ave. NW. Nov. 14 from 12:30pm-1:20pm. RSVP by Nov. 12 here. http://bit.ly/1fwoIyK

--”Rouhani’s First 100 Days.” Discussion with Yasmin Alem, Hadi Semati, Clifford Kupchan, and Greg Thielmann. Moderated by Barbara Slavin at The Atlantic Council, 1030 15th St. NW, 12th floor. Nov. 20 at 9:30am. http://bit.ly/HVGvUS

--”Flawed Logics: Strategic Nuclear Arms Control from Truman to Obama.” Discussion with James Lebovic at George Washington University, Linder Family Commons, Room 602, 1957 E St. NW. Nov. 20th at 1:30pm. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/HNBBsK

--”Rethinking U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy.” Discussion with Benjamin Friedman, Christopher Preble, and Laura Odato at B-369 Rayburn House Office Building. Nov. 25th at 12:00pm. http://bit.ly/1bVpEKg