Reshaping the Nuclear Force, After New START

On the radar: Memo to the President; Three options for reductions; Congress going non-binding; P5+1 to NYC; Dumbing down nuclear tests; Japanese plutonium agreement; and Remembering Megatons to Megawatts.

January 28, 2014 | Edited by Geoff Wilson

Beyond New START - Despite the Obama administration’s best efforts, Russia has been cold to new nuclear reduction initiatives. This shouldn’t the President’s nuclear security agenda, however. The Obama administration should order the Pentagon to accelerate implementation of New START, recommends Steve Pifer of Brookings in a memo to the President.

--“The Russians are already below the limit, and we do not need until the 2018 deadline to reach it. Warheads can be removed from ballistic missiles relatively quickly and at little cost, though at no real financial savings. Such an acceleration would underscore your policy of reducing the number and role of nuclear weapons in U.S. security policy.” Full memo here. http://bit.ly/1aEWdRA

Three paths to arms reduction - A follow-on nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia, “is only one possible approach to weapons reductions… [and] it is worth taking a look at the advantages and pitfalls of three other options: a bilateral amendment to the New START treaty, informal reciprocal reductions, or unilateral reductions. As surprising as it may seem, at the moment the last option may be the most feasible choice for the United States to make,” writes Anna Péczeli for The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/19YXVMS

Congress repositioning on Iran - “An attempt to impose new sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program has stalled in the U.S. Congress and lawmakers are discussing whether to introduce a much weaker measure, congressional aides said on Monday. Members of the Senate and House of Representatives are considering a non-binding resolution that expresses concern about Iran's nuclear ambitions and calls for negotiators to set strict conditions in talks between Tehran and world powers.” Read the full report from Patricia Zengerle of Reuters. http://reut.rs/1mRQEPA

P5+1 to New York - “Iran and global powers will begin negotiations on a comprehensive agreement to end the decade long dispute over Tehran's nuclear program in mid-February in New York, Western and Iranian officials said on Monday,” write Jay Solomon and Laurence Norman in a report for The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1euh8Sv

Poll - A new AP-Gfk poll shows that “a majority of Americans support an agreement by the U.S. and five other world powers to limit Iran's disputed nuclear program,” report Lara Jakes and Jennifer Agiesta for the AP. “The five-day survey, conducted Jan. 17-21…[indicates] that 60 percent of American adults approve of the six-month agreement.” http://abcn.ws/1iGHjfX

Lowering nuclear standards - “U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel thinks the proficiency tests that all Air Force missile-launch officers are required to pass may be too onerous,” Global Security Newswire reports. “‘There's a testing issue here...We have a pretty significant and tight and unforgiving test curriculum and regimen that I'm not sure doesn't need to be explored and examined in some detail,” said Hagel.

--“In recent weeks, close to three dozen missileers at Malmstrom Air Force Base, Mont. were implicated in a scandal that involved cheating on a routine proficiency exam for nuclear-launch operations last fall. News of the cheating, as well as other recent incidents in the silo-based strategic missile force, prompted Hagel last week to order a thorough review of personnel issues within the military's nuclear weapons mission,” reports GSN. http://bit.ly/1k1iyZL

Tweet - @rezamarashi: Fruits of #diplomacy in action. - "U.N. nuclear inspectors in #Iran to visit uranium mine": http://reut.rs/1nd3ieT

Japanese plutonium - “Japan has agreed to send the United States 730 pounds of plutonium, yielding to a years-old demand by the Obama administration,” Global Security Newswire reports. “The material reportedly is capable of fueling between 40 and 50 nuclear bombs, and one Japanese analyst said the science-grade substance is better suited for use in arms than the rest of the island nation's 44-ton stockpile. The United States anticipates inking a transfer arrangement with Japan at the third Nuclear Security Summit, scheduled for March in the Netherlands.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1b4wHQb

Sentencing - “An 83-year-old Catholic nun convicted in a protest and break-in at the primary U.S. storehouse for bomb-grade uranium will find out Tuesday whether she spends what could be the rest of her life in prison,” the AP reports. “Sister Megan Rice is one of three Catholic peace activists convicted of sabotage last year after they broke into the nuclear weapons plant in Oak Ridge, Tenn. Sentencing for all three is scheduled for 9 a.m. Tuesday at U.S. District Court in Knoxville.” The government is recommending six to nine years in prison for Rice and the other two protesters, in addition to $53,000 in restitution for damage incurred during their protest. http://wapo.st/1d5XviA

20,000 warheads --> electricity - “As the Cold War ended in the late 1980s and early ’90s, a new fear arose amid the rejoicing and relief: that atomic security might fail in the disintegrating Soviet Union, allowing its huge stockpile of nuclear warheads to fall into unfriendly hands,” writes William J. Broad in a piece for The New York Times. “That is when Thomas L. Neff, a physicist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, hit on his improbable idea: Why not let Moscow sell the uranium from its retired weapons and dilute it into fuel for electric utilities in the United States, giving Russians desperately needed cash and Americans a cheap source of power?”

--“Last month, Dr. Neff’s idea came to a happy conclusion as the last shipment of uranium from Russia arrived in the United States. In all, over two decades, the program known as Megatons to Megawatts turned 20,000 Russian warheads into electricity that has illuminated one in 10 American light bulbs… Millions of idealists, from President Obama on down, have sought a world without nuclear weapons. Dr. Neff, despite doing more than almost anyone to advance that goal, is circumspect about what he accomplished. He made no mention of energy windfalls, geopolitical realignments or the biblical injunction to turn swords into plowshares. The lesson of the story, he remarked in an interview, ‘is that private citizens can actually do something.’” Read the full article here. http://nyti.ms/1d5WgAa

Events:

--”Implementation of the Iran Nuclear Deal.” Hearing of the House Joint Subcommittee Hearing, featuring Mark Wallace, Gregory Jones, Olli Heinonen, and David Albright. Jan. 28th at 2:00 pm in Rayburn 2172. http://1.usa.gov/1c7lQZM

--50th anniversary of the release of “Dr. Strangelove: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb.” January 29, 2014.http://bit.ly/1gjkC0Z

--”Recommendations for a Final Deal with Iran” featuring David Albright. Jan. 29th from 1:00-2:30 PM at George Washington University. http://bit.ly/1i3L641

--"Solving Today’s Nuclear Nightmares." featuring Joseph Cirincione. Feb. 3rd at Noon-1:30 PM at George Washington University. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1b0Ncgf