Iran Shows Increased Openness on Nuclear Program

June 2, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Progress - “The U.N. nuclear watchdog chief praised Iran on Monday for showing increased openness about its disputed nuclear program but made clear Tehran must do more to fully address questions about suspected atomic bomb research,” reports Fredrik Dahl for Reuters. “Yukiya Amano's statement is likely to be seen as cautiously positive by the six world powers that are aiming to negotiate a final accord with the Islamic Republic by a July 20 deadline to settle a decade-old standoff over its atomic activities. The relatively upbeat remarks suggested that the International Atomic Energy Agency is becoming more hopeful of finally making some headway in a long-stymied IAEA investigation into allegations that Iran may have worked on designing a nuclear warhead.” Full report here. http://reut.rs/1p0rYYp

Tweet - @KelseyDav: Amano makes positive comments about substantive cooperation with Iran on nuclear issues at IAEA Board Meeting: http://www.iaea.org/press/?p=4600

Getting to yes - “The November 2013 Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) agreement among Iran and the P5+1 (United States, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany) commenced a six-month negotiation schedule designed to reach a final and hopefully lasting deal,” writes Alireza Nader in a piece for The National Interest. “Many of the trends since then have been positive: JPOA froze Iran’s nuclear activities for limited sanctions relief and negotiations have continued apace. Both the Obama administration and the newly elected government of President Hassan Rouhani genuinely want a deal. But recent reports also indicate major divisions between Iran and the P5+1. Simply put, Iran appears eager to maintain much of its nuclear infrastructure while offering greater ‘transparency,’ while the United States wants a serious roll back of Iran’s uranium-enrichment program. While most observers expected bumps in the road, the latest disagreements could be the most significant disagreements that have arisen since JPOA was signed.”

--“Rouhani’s goal of improving Iran’s economy converges with Obama’s desire to stop and roll back Iran’s nuclear program… But it’s not just up to Rouhani and Obama. [Rouhani] may be Iran’s president, but he is hardly a decisive actor. His negotiations have been backed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the conservative establishment, but pressure on him to “protect” national interests is increasing every day... Rouhani faces a real dilemma; he has to come to a middle ground with the P5+1 that limits Iran’s nuclear ambitions while allowing the Islamic Republic to declare victory and save face.”

--“The Iranian negotiators may be presenting their maximalist demands while hoping to achieve something below that threshold—if not 9,000 centrifuges, then perhaps 4,500. But if this is not their intention, then they better get real. Iran’s economy and the Islamic Republic’s future will not improve until the major U.S. and international sanctions are lifted. And this is not only a dilemma faced by the Rouhani government; Khamenei and his allies need sanctions relief just as badly. The United States and Iran may still find a middle ground, if not by the JPOA’s July 20 deadline, then in a few additional months. Washington’s diplomacy has been geared toward achieving a middle ground. But reaching a middle ground is a tactic and not the ultimate objective. Washington will strive to achieve the best deal for U.S. and allied interests. Iran may not like that; after all, Khamenei may want to preserve most of Iran’s nuclear-weapons capability. But his regime is simply in no position to make such maximalist demands. Iran has to lower its expectations if it wants a deal.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/1p0weHn

Tweet - @barbaraslavin1: . @LRozen report U.S. signals extension on #Iran deal could be needed http://bit.ly/1olKF7z

Kitty-litter oversight - “Los Alamos National Laboratory approved a caustic mixture to pack nuclear-waste drums now in danger of bursting,” Global Security Newswire reports. “Laboratory personnel last year granted a contractor's requests to begin packing the barrels with two substances widely understood to produce thermal reactions when combined with nitrate salts in the waste, according to Los Alamos e-mails made available by New Mexico environment officials. The organic materials were in addition to a cat-litter absorbent previously linked to a container breakage at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant near Carlsbad.”

--“A radiation leak in the underground repository halted operations there in February, and prompted worries that hundreds of similarly packed waste containers may be in danger of breaking open. New Mexico's government obtained correspondence between Los Alamos and EnergySolutions, the laboratory's waste-packaging contractor, in an effort to determine ‘what happened and whether they deviated from the regulations,’ the state's top environmental official said. ‘It doesn't really matter who is to blame,’ New Mexico Environment Secretary Ryan Flynn added. ‘They all work for [the Energy Department]’… Flynn said investigators still considered cat-litter to be the most likely source of the container rupture… The laboratory signed off on the two other suspect ingredients in May and August of last year.” Read the full report here. http://bit.ly/1p0ovJp

Missing deadlines - “The U.S. Department of Energy on Friday said it would be unable to meet a deadline to remove drums of nuclear waste from Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico because of safety concerns tied to the radiological materials,” writes Laura Zuckerman in Reuters. “New Mexico officials asked federal officials to remove 3,706 cubic meters of waste from a mesa on the Los Alamos complex, out of a concern that wildfires could reach the material. Much of that nuclear waste has been removed, and the U.S. Department of Energy had agreed to transfer the rest of it to a Texas facility by June 30.”

--“But those shipments have been put on hold due to concerns about the chemical stability of the mixture in the containers that have arisen since it was discovered a drum from the federal Los Alamos National Laboratory may be behind a radiological leak at a repository near Carlsbad, New Mexico. ‘As we work to assess the conditions of the transuranic waste program at the (Los Alamos) lab, we have decided to halt further shipments until we can reassure the public that it is safe to do so,’” said David Klaus, an Energy Department secretary for management and performance. Full piece here. http://reut.rs/1on0rPq

Accepting failure - A senior U.S. officer says if an upcoming missile-intercept test results in a repeat failure, it still would not likely spell doom for the program,” writes Rachel Oswald in Global Security Newswire. “Adm. James Winnefeld, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said his own best guess is that the planned June test of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system will be successful. Were the test deemed a failure, ‘I don't think it'll be a shot in the head [to the program], but it depends on the failure mode if it were to fail,’ he said.”

--“The Ground-based Midcourse Defense system is the country's principal defense against a limited strategic ballistic missile attack. However, the system has not had a successful intercept test, despite repeated attempts, since 2008. After conducting an extensive technical analysis into the reasons behind the recent test failures, the Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency is planning to put the technology through another intercept trial in June.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/1oNluhS

Missile takeover - Russia claims to “have the ability to take over the missile-maintenance work that Ukraine currently performs for it,” Global Security Newswire reports. “Kiev and Moscow are in a dispute due to Russia's annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and its suspected efforts to destabilize other parts of eastern Ukraine. Because of this, some in the United States have urged the Ukrainian government to end its defense contracts with the Russian military, which include supplying maintenance services for some of its intercontinental ballistic missiles.”

--“If Ukraine refuses to cooperate in the defense sphere, we are ready to create our own cooperation, capable of taking over all the tasks of Ukrainian enterprises, including the Yuzhmash plant," said deputy chief of the Russian space agency Roscosmos Sergey Ponomarev. Get the full story here. http://bit.ly/T6KUcS

Back on duty - “Of the airmen involved in the cheating investigation at Malmstrom Air Force Base, about two-thirds of them are pulling alert shifts or in the training pipeline to be recertified for alert duty, according to base officials,” writes Jenn Rowell in the Great Falls Tribune. “The remainder of cases are still under review. One hundred officers at Malmstrom were involved in the investigation. Nine were cleared when the findings were announced in March. Some cases were retained by the Office of Special Investigation since they involved the mishandling of classified material or were part of the initial drug investigation that uncovered the cheating.” Full story here. http://gftrib.com/1kxFzpz

Precipitating a nuclear arms race - South Korean President Park Geun-hye “is hardly the first to worry that a new state acquiring a nuclear weapon will have a nuclear domino effect among its neighbors,” writes Zachary Keck in The Diplomat. “Indeed, this has been a constant concern in the United States since the dawn of the nuclear era. This concern continues today with many in Washington claiming that Iran acquiring a nuclear arsenal would spark a nuclear arms race in the already volatile Middle East.”

--However, “Park’s warnings about North Korea’s growing capabilities creating a nuclear domino effect in Asia is merely bluster. This view is premised on the argument that states acquire nuclear weapons to deter rival nuclear armed states. This was true in the early nuclear era when non-nuclear states had no reason to believe that their nuclear-armed rivals would not use nuclear weapons against them. As the nuclear era progressed, however, it became clear that nuclear weapons would not be used in the same manner as other military capabilities would. In the words of many, a taboo against the first use of nuclear weapons took root. This taboo is especially strong when it comes to using nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state.”

--“Although North Korea is unlikely to precipitate a nuclear arms race in Asia, China’s growing military capabilities and assertive diplomatic posture very well might. Indeed, just as history has demonstrated that states don’t need nuclear arsenals to deter rivals from attacking them with nuclear weapons, it has also demonstrated that nuclear weapons are extremely effective in deterring conventional military attacks. Thus, states that face rivals with overwhelming conventional military power have a strong incentive to acquire nuclear weapons to negate their rivals’ conventional superiority.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/1pzDZX5

Quick-hits:

--“The Limits of Lasers: Missile Defense at the Speed of Light” by Sydney J. Freedberg Jr. for Breaking Defense. http://bit.ly/1pzATCC

--“Hiroshima atomic bomb attraction more popular than ever” by Richard Ehrlich for CNN. http://cnn.it/1pzCdFz

--“U.S. Nuclear Specialist: Deal with Iran will come in Winter” by Yitzhak Benhorin for Ynet News. http://bit.ly/1m5swrQ

Events:

--“U.S.-Iran Relations Past, Present, and Future.” Discussion with Seyyed Hossein Mousavian and John Marks; moderated by Barbara Slavin. June 3 from 9:30 to 11:00 at the Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street, NW, 12th Floor (West Tower). RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1knlaU2

--“Chain Reaction 2014.” Ploughshares Fund Gala with Michael Douglas, Jeremy Ben-Ami and Trita Parsi. June 3 from 6:00 to 8:30 at The Open Square at Futures Without Violence, 100 Montgomery Street, The Presidio of San Francisco. Purchase tickets here. http://bit.ly/1nexkld

--“Plutonium Disposition by Downblending and Disposal.” Discussion with Edwin Lyman and Miles Pomper. June 4 from 9:00-10:45 at the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Abelson-Haskins Conference Room, 1200 New York Ave., NW. RSVP here. http://adobe.ly/1gYCbnT

--“U.S. Missile Defense Developments: How Far? How Fast?” Discussion with Cristina Chaplain, Phil Coyle, Laura Grego, and James Miller; moderated by Steven Pifer. June 4 from 10:00-11:30am at the Brookings Institution, Saul/Zilkha Rooms, 1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1lUd81A

--“Israel, Saudi, and Iranian Responses in the Days After a Deal With Iran.” Discussion with Alireza Nader, Dalia Dassa Kaye, and Jeffrey Martini. Moderated by Lynne Davis. June 4 from 1:00 to 2:00 at 2200 Rayburn House Office Building. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/RBn07W

--“Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: India, Pakistan, China and the Future of Deterrence Stability." Discussion with Vipin Narang and Peter Lavoy. June 4 from 3:00 to 4:30 at the Stimson Center, 1111 19th St., NW, Floor 12. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1h9mbzS

--“Nuclear Flashpoints: U.S.-Iran Tensions Over Terms and Timetables.” Discussion with Stephen Hadley, Jon Wolfsthal, Daryl Kimball and Robert Litwak. June 10 from 9:30 to 11:00 at the Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, floor 6. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1tqM3Hk

--“War With Iran? Should the United States Use Military Force Against Iran if Nuclear Diplomacy Fails?” Debate with Georgetown University and University of Michigan students; comments by Colin Kahl. June 13 from 9:00-12:00 at the Willard Intercontinental Hotel, The Willard Room, 1401 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1gXWlOJ