US and Russia Near Agreement on Missile Defense

Today's top nuclear policy stories, with excerpts in bullet form.

Stories we're following today: Monday, October 4, 2010.

U.S.-Russia Accord on Missile Defense Almost Ready, Lavrov Says – Lucian Kim in Bloomberg News [link]

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the U.S. and Russia are close to reaching an agreement on missile defense, the “hot potato” issue that has held up a new arms control accord between the two countries.
• The next step will then be to examine common responses, together with the Europeans, beginning with diplomacy and not excluding military force, the foreign minister said.
• U.S. missile defense plans were a cause for the deterioration of relations under former President George W. Bush, and Senate opposition to a new nuclear arms-reduction treaty centers on concern the treaty will cripple America’s ability to develop a missile shield.
• While Lavrov said missile defense remains a “hot potato,” he praised the improvement in ties since the Obama administration called for a “reset” in relations last year.
• Medvedev, who is seeking American experience and capital to build a Russian “Silicon Valley” outside Moscow, has been willing to support U.S. policies on Iran and Afghanistan in return. Russia’s support for tighter UN sanctions against Iran because of its nuclear program this summer was “not an isolated action,” Lavrov said.

GOP to Obama: START Treaty Still Far From Votes For Ratification – Taylor J. Rushing in The Hill [link]

• Senate Republicans are warning the Obama administration that it still has work to do to ensure a successful ratification vote on the START treaty in a lame-duck session after the November elections.
• Democratic leaders are eyeing a floor vote on the treaty sometime after Nov. 15, when the chamber convenes for a few weeks before adjourning for the Christmas holiday.
• “Modernization is a significant issue,” said Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the party’s 2008 presidential nominee. “They’ve got to satisfy those concerns.”
• “The administration is going to have to live up to the commitment they made to us," Isakson said. “I think they will.”
• Corker also told The Hill his committee vote is no indication of his vote when the treaty comes up for a floor vote. “I still have questions, and I still want them answered,” Corker said. “We’ll see, but I’m still undecided for now.”

For the Studio Behind 'Waiting for Superman,' Movies Are a Tool for Change – Ann Hornaday in The Washington Post [link]

• Hitting the sweet spot of public awareness is not unusual for Participant Media, the company that produced "Waiting for 'Superman.'" With a combination of wonkish activism and showbiz acumen, the company has proved uncommonly astute at predicting what issues will be hot two years after they begin production on a movie.
• "Every single film has a curriculum, [which] is meant to stay long after the film has gone through its box office run. For us, the theatrical release is just the start of the social action."
• In Washington, Participant holds screenings of its films for politicians, staffers and think tankers long before they open in theaters. (Last year the company held six screenings here of the nuclear nonproliferation documentary "Countdown to Zero," creating buzz before the movie hit theaters this summer.)
• Participant Media’s Jim Berk and his staff have enlisted 60 NGOs working on nuclear weapons issues -- one of Plame's areas of expertise when she was at the CIA -- and are planning workshops to train women in advocating for a new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, an extension of the work started this summer with "Countdown to Zero."
• "There are anywhere from seven to nine senators who . . . will determine whether a new START gets enacted," Berk says. "So we're focusing on training organizers in those key states, so they can create a groundswell."

Iran Blames Bushehr Delay on "Small Leak," Not Virus – Reuters [link]

• A small leak in a pool near the reactor caused a delay in starting up Iran's first nuclear power plant but it has now been fixed, a senior official was quoted as saying on Monday.
• Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation, also said the delay had nothing to do with the global Stuxnet computer virus believed mainly to have affected Iran.
• Mark Fitzpatrick, at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Salehi might have been referring to a pool for receiving spent fuel rods from the reactor. "Typically Iran exaggerates everything about their nuclear program in a positive way," Fitzpatrick said. "It could be more serious trouble than he has stated."
• Iran's program includes uranium enrichment -- separate from Bushehr -- that Western leaders suspect is geared toward developing atomic bombs. Iran says it is refining uranium only for a future network of nuclear power plants.

North Korea's Kim Jong-il No Lame Duck, in U.S. View – Phil Stewart of Reuters [link]

• North Korea's Kim Jong-il will not become a lame duck leader and is expected to keep a firm grip on power until his death, despite having unveiled his successor, current and former U.S. officials say.
• Victor Cha, director of Asian Affairs at the White House from 2004 to 2007, said the ascension of Kim's family further enhanced the ruler's power during the remaining years of his life.
• Although Kim could also decide to step down before his death, he is not expected to do so. Current and former U.S. officials point to history as a gauge -- Kim only took power after his father, Kim Il-sung, died in 1994 at the age of 82.
• But for U.S. observers, Kim's continued prominence also lowers hopes of any major changes to policy in North Korea, whose aspirations to be a nuclear weapons power has worried the outside world for years.
• "Unfortunately for North Koreans, we're likely to see more of the same," the current U.S. official said.