Lessons on Talking with Pyongyang

On the radar: Pyongyang wants to talk; Sigal on how to talk with Pyongyang ; Iranian bomb “neither imminent nor inevitable”; Fewer requirements, fewer warheads; A-jad speaks; Fresh ISIS reports on Iran; Myanmar too broke for nukes; and U.K. suspected of possessing 225 nuclear warheads.

September 22, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

The North wants a bilateral - After yesterday’s meeting between Korea envoys in Beijing, North Korea is pushing to hold a round of bilateral talks with the U.S. as part of a renewed effort to restart the six-party talks.

--”Analysts expect it will take a few more months of diplomacy before an agreement can be reached on restarting the regional talks which offer the impoverished North economic and energy aid in return for disabling its nuclear weapons program.” Reuters reports. http://ow.ly/6BLqW

Negotiating with North Korea - “Washington is missing a real opportunity to rein in Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs by trying diplomatic give-and-take in earnest,” writes Leon Sigal in Foreign Affairs. ”For the better part of two decades, stonewalling North Korea has consistently produced dangerous developments. Sincere engagement is the best way forward.”

--Among the recommendations: seeking a peace treaty and exchanging energy aid/cooperation for suspension of the North’s enrichment facilities or shipment of nuclear fuel rods out of North Korea. http://ow.ly/6BLol

Welcome to Early Warning - Subscribe to our morning email or follow us on twitter.

Iran’s uncertain timeline -”We have every reason to believe that an Iranian bomb is neither imminent nor inevitable,” writes Greg Thielmann. He notes Mark Fitzpatrick's "high confidence" that Iran won't have a nuclear weapons even a year from now, and that predicting otherwise "borders on the irresponsible." http://ow.ly/6BQTE

--as @cirincione said: “Fitzpatrick just demolished worst case claims that #Iran could have bomb within a year.”

Nuclear targeting review - The Obama administration is conducting a strategic review of how many nuclear weapons are required for U.S. national security needs. Noting that this review will likely lead to reductions in the U.S. nuclear arsenal, Bill Gertz frames this development in his typical inflationary manner. http://ow.ly/6BRxz

--EW History Lesson: George W. Bush made a similar targeting review. Under his administration, the U.S. nuclear arsenal went from 10,526 operational warheads to 5,273. http://ow.ly/6BREj (pdf)

A few words with A-jad - Nick Kristof has a full transcript of his interview with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad yesterday. As usual, nothing in A-jad’s rambling prose can be taken at face value and not much political significance can be attached to his views. However, he reiterated his interest in uranium fuel swaps with the U.S. http://ow.ly/6BMiJ

Iran’s enrichment plans -”Despite the measly performance of [Natanz] as a provider of LEU for power reactors, it is adequate enough to be part of a small nuclear weapons production complex,” according to a new analysis from ISIS. http://ow.ly/6B8nX

--Given its limited capabilities, Iran is more likely to produce weapon-grade uranium under a civilian justification rather than rely on stockpiling 19.75% LEU. Preventing HEU production will require “vigilance on the part of the international community” and efforts to cap Iran’s stock of LEU, possibly through a sales and cap agreement. http://ow.ly/6B8hm

Myanmar lacks “economic strength” for a nuclear program - That’s what Myanmar’s ambassador to the IAEA said to dismiss concerns about Myanmar’s possible nuclear work. http://ow.ly/6BOJ7

British Nuclear Forces heading to 180 warheads - Britain has reduced its nuclear weapons stockpile from more than 500 during the Cold War to about 225, and plans to go down to 180 by the mid-2020s. Modernization plans may increase the number of warheads on each missile, however. A new nuclear notebook from Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris. http://ow.ly/6BLlj