Influencing Iran’s Calculations

On the radar: Policies with Iran; Polling on Iran; “Produce to reduce?”; Toward Korea talks; Heavy analysis on Russia’s ICBM decision; NYT calls for sanctions round 5; Perkovich on Pakistan; and a Bushehr through a diplomatic lens.

September 19, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

A realistic perspective on Iran -”It is important to frame the debate about Iran correctly — without hyping or underestimating the possibility it will get nuclear weapons in the near future,” writes Barbara Slavin in Politico.

”The goal for Washington and the international community should be to convince Iran that it can lose more than it gains from crossing the nuclear threshold – triggering an arms race with wealthier Arabs, for example, that sanctions-strapped Iran cannot win.”

--“The U.S. and its allies can help keep the lid on [Iran’s program] through a mix of policies - including better implementation of sanctions on nuclear-related materials, interdiction of these materials and continued sabotage of equipment and computer software.” http://ow.ly/6ydhE

Polling the options with Iran - The annual Transatlantic Trends survey found “an overwhelming preference in all countries for non-military measures to persuade or pressure Iran to forgo nuclear weapons,” writes Jim Lobe.

--Follow-up question: Assuming that all non-military options were exhausted, 54% of U.S. respondents favored “military action.” It is assumed that if the question used the word “war” instead of “military action,” support for military action would likely drop, notes Lobe. http://ow.ly/6yfb7

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Context for Korea talks - “A meeting Wednesday of the rival Koreas' nuclear envoys could provide crucial momentum toward restarting disarmament talks.” From AP. http://ow.ly/6ygR3

Early Tweet - @FAScientists: “Produce to Reduce: The Hedge Gamble” bit.ly/p5JN1H

Iran’s Nuclear Program: Status and Prospects - An expert panel featuring Adm. Joe Sestak, Mark Fitzpatrick, Greg Thielmann, and Daryl Kimball discusses options for addressing Iran’s nuclear program. The Arms Control Association hosts the event today. Details here: http://ow.ly/6wjy6

Explaining Russia’s ICBM decision - Russia is endeavoring to build a new generation of ICBMs that are liquid-fueled and heavily MIRV’d. Why the shift back to slower, heavier, liquid-fueled missiles? Igor Sutyagin argues Russia may have made the decision in order to diversify its missile production lines and increase the missile’s mid-course missile defense penetration capabilities. From RUSI. http://ow.ly/6ympI

Sanctions to what end? - After noting its uncertainty about the effectiveness of sanctions for curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, a recent New York Times editorial called for a fifth round of Security Council sanctions upon Iran in order to get Tehran’s attention. http://ow.ly/6yidK

Early Event - “Securing the Benefits of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” with Michael Krepon, David Koplow and Daryl Kimball. Sept. 22 from 3:00-4:00 at the Stimson Center. RSVP and details here. http://ow.ly/6ynDk

Early Quote - “In the end, Ahmadinejad speaks neither on behalf of the religion he is sure to invoke or the nation he purports to lead.” Ray Takeyh in The Washington Post. http://ow.ly/6ygJg

A new direction for US-Pakistan - The withdrawal from Afghanistan presents an opportunity to change the trajectory of current US policies, which have amounted to “empowering Pakistan's grossly oversized and hyperactive military and intelligence services at the expense of the country's civil society and progress toward effective governance,” writes George Perkovich in The LA Times. http://ow.ly/6ym4r

Iran's nuclear power plant: threat or distraction? - After detailing the troubled history of Iran’s Bushehr reactor, Suzanne Maloney argues that Bushehr is a “window on what Washington has done right lately,” including bringing Russia on board with multilateral sanctions upon Iran. http://ow.ly/6yib6