Dealing with the Iranian Nuclear Impasse

On the radar: Negotiating positions preview; Safeguards for enrichment; A smarter nuclear strategy; New 123 approach; Obama’s nuclear grade; Practical objectives or maximalist rhetoric; IAEA in Iran; and How to keep a Kim.

January 24, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Impasse - The U.S. and its partners in the P5+1 seem unlikely to alter its negotiating position that Iran suspend uranium enrichment. Iran seems unlikely to compromise over its perceived right to its enrichment program. Thus, as the two negotiating partners’ enter into new talks, their positions seem right where they were a year ago when negotiations broke down. AP provides context to upcoming talks with Iran. http://owl.li/8Ev1G

Deal - “My hunch is that this gathering crisis could be avoided by a deal along the following lines: Iran would accept top-notch IAEA safeguards in return for being allowed to continue enriching uranium. In addition, Iran would volunteer some confidence-building measures to show that it has no intention of making nuclear weapons,” writes former UK representative at the IAEA Peter Jenkins in The Guardian.

--”This, essentially, is the deal that Iran offered the UK, France and Germany in 2005. With hindsight, that offer should have been snapped up. It wasn’t, because our objective was to put a stop to all enrichment in Iran.” http://owl.li/8EuXk

A new nuclear strategy - “As we fully comprehend the new 21st Century challenges and leave behind the outdated cold war threats...the United States must reassess the need for a massive, complex and realistically unusable nuclear arsenal,” write Gen. Stephen Cheney and Terri Lodge in The Hill. The authors lay out four steps for a smarter nuclear strategy, including investing in arms control negotiations and revisiting the nuclear triad. http://owl.li/8Ev4O

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White House on civilian nuclear trade - “A recent internal policy review has concluded Washington should take a “case-by-case” approach to integrating nonproliferation objectives into future nuclear trade pacts,” according to an administration letter to Congress. Elaine Grossman reports for Global Security Newswire. http://owl.li/8Ev3d

Making the grade on nuclear policy - “Barack Obama came out early and strong on nuclear policy, with initiatives that worked...[But] the combination of competing crises, a resistant bureaucracy, political opposition, and reluctant partners has slowed progress to a crawl,” writes Joe Cirincione in a Foreign Policy piece grading the President’s foreign policy. “Obama’s best chance to restore momentum,” writes Cirincione, is on the revision of the Pentagon’s nuclear guidance. http://owl.li/8Eva0

Lessons for Iran policy - The President said it was unacceptable for them to get a nuclear weapon. Diplomatic talks had stalled, and the military option, while on the table, was a bad one. Despite such “maximalist” positions on North Korea, notes CFR’s Mikah Zenko, few in the George W. Bush administration believed its policies toward the North would achieve their strategic objective. This has lessons for the situation with Iran today.

--”Maximalist rhetoric should not constrain the pursuit of other policies that fall short of the ultimate goal. In the case of the Iranian nuclear program, this should include negotiations without preconditions; containment in cooperation with U.S. regional partners; deterrence through conventional and strategic military power; targeted economic sanctions that limit Iran’s access to dual-use exports; and countering influence in the public sphere and international institutions.” http://owl.li/8Ev6x

IAEA in Iran - “The UN atomic agency confirmed Monday a high-level visit to Iran would take place from January 29-31 for talks on Tehran's contested nuclear drive,” AFP reports. http://owl.li/8EuUK

Russia-DPRK cooperation on Kim - Russia has managed to preserve Vladimir Lenin since 1924. Reports now say that Russian scientists are guiding North Korean doctors as they attempt to preserve the remains of Kim Jong Il. We’ll let you read the details. Worry not: “Mr. Kim’s remarkable bouffant hairdo will remain intact.” Mark McDonald at the IHT has the story. http://owl.li/8Evte