Overcoming Defense Budget Inertia

On the radar: NYT on sensible nuclear budget cuts; Sub and bomber slipping onto similar schedule; Gelb lays out nuclear deal with Iran; Cold War relics, 21st century; IAEA in Iran; Wanting a bigger MOP; Mistakes to avoid with Iran; and a Rusty Soviet sea skimmer.

January 30, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

New strategy, same spending - “It is politically easier to continue programs that outlive their usefulness or outrun their cost estimates...But the country cannot afford to continue on this way. And there is no strategic argument for doing so.” The New York Times editorial board has recommendations for smart defense cuts that would save billions.

--On nuclear: “Mr. Obama has declared his commitment to arms control, but there is no reflection of that in the budget plan. He needs to back it up with significant cuts in the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons, ballistic missile submarines and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Senator Tom Coburn, a Republican, offers a sensible plan to do that, and estimates that it could save $79 billion over the next decade.” http://owl.li/8LeVG

Subs and bomber schedules - “The next generation for one leg of the Triad (the bomber) isn’t going to be certified immediately, and the replacement program for another leg of the Triad (the sub) has been delayed,” writes Matt Leatherman. “If we look a decade out, this plan pushes the SSBN(X) procurement event closer to the bomber’s. But most won’t look a decade out, so this helps escape the appearance simultaneity even if not the fact.” http://owl.li/8LghH

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Diplomacy with Iran - With economic pressure and political tensions building, now is the time to offer Iran a deal, Les Gelb writes in The Daily Beast. His recommendation: Iran agrees to enrich only for civilian use, subject to verification, and the West will gradually lift the sanctions. http://owl.li/8Lgvj

Keeping the relics - The new defense strategy was pitched as "[getting] rid of outdated Cold War-era systems." But Cold War relics like the nuclear triad are protected in the 2013 budget, writes AP’s Robert Burns. http://owl.li/8LgmP

State of play on Iran - Heather Hurlburt of the National Security Network gives a rundown on the latest military strategy, geo-strategy, and beltway strategy with Iran.

--”What does all this add up to? A lot of posturing for domestic and international audiences... some progress toward the foundations of a negotiated outcome... consensus among experts and the business community, but emphatically not among political factions here or elsewhere, on what an acceptable negotiated outcome would look like... and some big opportunities for miscalculation and unintended escalation.” http://owl.li/8LePo

IAEA in Iran - No details of the IAEA inspectors’ three day visit to Iran are out yet, but AP reports that Iranian officials are optimistic. “During this visit, the delegation has questions and the necessary answers will be given,” the Iranian Foreign Minister said. http://owl.li/8LeSk

MOP not massive enough - Pentagon planners have concluded that their largest conventional bomb, the Massive Ordanance Penetrator, isn’t big enough to take out some hardened sites in Iran and North Korea. Now the Pentagon wants more money to add capability. So far, the Department of Defense has spent $330 million to develop 20 bombs. http://owl.li/8LeM8

Mistakes to avoid - Tensions with Iran are tilting toward confrontation. Josh Pollack at The Bulletin gives his advice on how to avoid disaster. Mistakes Pollack suggests should be avoided: Iran shouldn't interfere in the Straits of Hormuz, Israel shouldn’t escalate a covert war against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, and the United States shouldn’t “neglect the diplomatic opportunity now taking shape.” http://owl.li/8LgCG

Ekranoplane - Late in the Cold War, the Soviet Union built a huge craft that could haul troops and nuclear weapons across the seas at 340 mph by flying/floating 16 feet above the waves. Business Insider has photos and a brief history of the rusty behemoth. http://owl.li/8LeJt