Communicating with Iran

On the radar: Avoiding miscalculation; the Omani intermediary; Essentials of nuclear intel largely unchanged; Transparency deficit on Plutonium lab management; Holland 2014; The existing credible military threat; IAEA plans next trip; Campbell on N. Korea diplomacy; Iran & Al Qaeda; and Crazy talk on Fukushima.

Mil-Mil contact - “U.S. and Iranian war ships have well-established ways of communication designed to avoid misreading their maneuvers and actions, but the two militaries still lack a mechanism commanders on each side could use to stave off a costly miscalculation,” writes John Bennet in U.S. News. http://owl.li/8OfXf

Omani intermediary - “Oman's ruler, Sultan Qaboos bin Said, a longtime, discreet intermediary with Iran, says that Iran is seriously seeking a way out of American-led sanctions over its nuclear program and urges the United States to re-engage the regime on a variety of issues, not just its nuclear program,” reports Judith Miller for Fox News. “The United States and Iran should sit together and talk,” said the Omani leader. http://owl.li/8OfZT

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Essentials remain the same - “The United States’ intelligence community’s judgments on Iran’s nuclear program have not fundamentally changed from those revealed in its controversial 2007 National Intelligence Estimate,” writes Greg Thielmann at Arms Control Now in an analysis of yesterday’s intelligence report on worldwide threats. http://owl.li/8Og11

Tweet - @CBrainard: “Transparency fail. @JFleck on why the Nat'l Nuclear Security Admin should release contractor performance evaluations. http://owl.li/8Og2u

2014 nuclear summit going Dutch - “The Netherlands has accepted Seoul's request to host the 3rd Nuclear Security Summit in 2014,” reports Duyeon Kim at Nukes of Hazard. An official announcement is expected at the Seoul summit in late March. http://owl.li/8Og3N

Calling for a credible threat to Iran - A new report by the Bipartisan Policy calls for the U.S. to declare its willingness to use force to keep Iran from nuclear weapons, intensify covert activities, bolster the 5th Fleet in the Gulf, amp up military exercises in the Gulf, and strengthen regional partnerships. As a last resort, the group says the U.S. could strike Iran’s nuclear program. Reuters sums up the report here. http://owl.li/8Og5P

The existing credible threat - As Colin Kahl reminded in a recent Foreign Affairs article, “the United States already has a large presence encircling Iran. Forty thousand U.S. troops are stationed in the Gulf, accompanied by strike aircraft, two aircraft carrier strike groups, two Aegis ballistic missile defense ships, and multiple Patriot antimissile systems. On Iran's eastern flank, Washington has another 90,000 troops deployed in Afghanistan and thousands more supporting the Afghan war in nearby Central Asian states.”

--While striking Iran program as a last resort might buy a little time, wrote Kahl, it would not eliminate the nuclear threat but would raise the costs of containment afterwards and risk uncontrollable escalation with Iran. http://owl.li/8Og7b

IAEA planning a trip to Tehran - “We had three days of intensive discussions about all our priorities, and we are committed to resolve all the outstanding issues,” IAEA mission leader Herman Nackaerts said of insectors’ recent visit to Tehran. “But of course there’s still a lot of work to be done. So we have planned another trip in the very near future.” From AP. http://owl.li/8Og8E

Quote - “We are open to diplomacy with North Korea, but there is a very clear set of steps that we think are necessary,” said Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell. “We agreed that the path is open to North Korea toward the resumption of talks and improved relations...[But] the road to improve these relations runs through Seoul for North Korea." http://owl.li/8Oga6

Iran & Al Qaeda - The United States should think twice about actions that would push Iran and al Qaeda closer together -- especially a preemptive attack on the country's nuclear program,” writes Seth Jones in Foreign Affairs.

--After giving context to the complicated relationship between Iran & Al Qaeda, Jones concludes, “Thus far, Iran and al Qaeda have mutually limited their relationship. It would be a travesty to push the two closer together at the very moment that central al Qaeda in Pakistan has been severely weakened.” http://owl.li/8MIQM

The nuclear conspiracy at Fukushima - In its “Tinfoil Tuesday” roundup of the most insane conspiracy theories, Danger Room found a writer convinced that “the earthquake in Japan [that lead to the tragedy at Fukushima] was no earthquake at all. It was a nuclear explosion, detonated by the Israeli government to stop Japan from enriching uranium for Iran.” Katie Drummond sums up the outrageous claim, and pours a cold bucket of reality on it with the help of Jeffrey Lewis. http://owl.li/8Ogdh