Nuclear Guidance, Budget Impact

On the radar: Obama’s nuclear decisions; Panetta worried about Israeli strike; The shape of a deal with Iran; B61’s high price, questionable efficacy; Nork testing; Yoda on Iran; IAEA asked to tour Parchin; EASI report launched; and Ramstein to house BMD HQ.

February 3, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

The White House and its Warheads - The White House and the Pentagon are working to revise policies that shape the structure and size of the nuclear force. Most observers expect this policy guidance to result in modest nuclear reductions. “Although modesty may reign, there will likely be some options for deep cuts in the arsenal,” writes Joseph Cirincione in Foreign Affairs. “Obama could rewrite those policies to shrink the target list, eliminate the need to launch weapons in minutes, and make other common-sense improvements,” thereby cutting excessive weapons and bringing US out of its Cold War era nuclear posture.

--Policy meets budget: ”The Budget squeeze could give nuclear reductions new impetus,” writes Cirincione. “For example, by dropping the requirement to launch approximately 1,000 weapons at targets within 20 minutes, he could reduce the number of submarines required on station, allowing for a secure submarine force of eight boats. That would save $20 billion over ten years and $120 billion over the life of the program.” http://owl.li/8ReoY

Guidance timeline - The nuclear guidance is still “the focus of intense interaction between DOD and the White House," but it could be completed by the budget drop on February 13th, an industry source told Inside Defense. (paywall) http://owl.li/8Re8P

Panetta’s worry - “Panetta believes there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June,” writes David Ignatius at The Washington Post.

--”President Obama and Panetta are said to have cautioned the Israelis that the United States opposes an attack, believing that it would derail an increasingly successful international economic sanctions program and other non-military efforts to stop Iran from crossing the threshold...The administration appears to favor staying out of the conflict unless Iran hits U.S. assets, which would trigger a strong U.S. response.” http://owl.li/8ReqL

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A deal with Iran - “Both Iran and the US want stability in the region, the end of terrorism from Al Qaeda and the Taliban, the reincorporation of Iran into the international community, and no war,” write Ambassadors William Luers and Thomas Pickering in the IHT. “With those assumptions as a skeleton, the shape of a final agreement with Iran is imaginable.”

--An agreement: ”The U.S. would agree to full recognition and respect for the Islamic Republic, and Iran would agree to regional cooperation with the U.S. in Afghanistan and Iraq. Both sides would agree to address the full range of bilateral disputes.” Additionally, the IAEA and Security Council would accept an Iranian civil nuclear program, offering progressive reductions of sanctions in return for full access to Iran’s nuclear program and assurances that it remains peaceful in nature. http://owl.li/8ResF

Event - Diplomatic Strategies for Preventing a Nuclear-Armed Iran, hosted by the Arms Control Association, features Ambassador James Dobbins, ACA’s Peter Crail, and Dr. Jim Walsh. Next Thursday, 9:30am, at the Stimson Center. RSVP here. http://owl.li/8Redv

B61 price tag - Modernizing the B61 bombs in Europe is projected to cost $2.1 billion. The Project on Government Oversight is asking Defense Secretary Panetta to cancel the program, arguing that “given the magnitude of U.S. fiscal concerns, continuing to spend billions of dollars on weapons whose military efficacy is questionable at best and whose security is not assured is not justifiable.” http://owl.li/8Rec7

Tweet - @RussiaForces: “Article in Science&GlobalSecurity: Radionuclide Evidence for North Korean Nuclear Testing in May 2010 http://bit.ly/wsL0hA”

Gates on Iran - “Those who say we shouldn't attack, I think, underestimate the consequences of Iran having a nuclear weapon...And those how say we should, underestimate the consequences of going to war," said former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates to CNN. Gates called Iran “one of the toughest foreign policy problems I have ever seen.” http://owl.li/8Rel1

IAEA & Parchin - IAEA inspectors in Iran asked to visit Parchin, and Iranian facility suspected of being used for “possible military dimensions” of Iran’s nuclear work. Iran said no. IAEA inspectors are set to return to Iran on Feb. 21. AOL Defense has the story. http://owl.li/8Reij

EASI reports - 26 former generals, senior policymakers, and businesspeople from Russia, North America and Europe warn that the security situation in the Euro-Atlantic region is sliding backward, and call for the creation of a new, more ambitious security dialogue in the region.

--This Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative, co-chaired by Wolfgang Ischinger, Igor Ivanoc, and Sam Nunn, released its final report on practical action for a new security dialogue. Includes analysis on cooperative missile defense and dealing with nonstrategic nuclear forces. Read their full report here. Watch the Youtube video if short on time. http://owl.li/8RevE

Germany to host BMD command - The command and control center for NATO’s Europe missile defense shield will be housed at a US air base in western Germany, Reuters reports. http://owl.li/8Refr