Stronger, Fewer, Safer

On the radar: Perspective on nuclear reductions; Road map for diplomacy; Assessing the Nuclear Security Summit; National Academies CTBT report; Parchin photos; Thwarting nuclear theft; North Korea inspections update; and The coolest treaty.

March 14, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Republican presidents, Obama policies, and nuclear cuts - Republican presidents have been far more aggressive with nuclear reductions since the end of the Cold War - with both Presidents Bush unilaterally cutting thousands of nuclear weapons. That history contrasts with Rep. Michael Turner’s (R-OH) recent op-ed in Politico, which criticised the nuclear reductions under consideration at the White House as being too bold.

--In an LTE to Politico, Stephen Young of the Union of Concerned Scientists takes apart Turner’s assertions. ”Turner is living in the past...Today’s stockpiles can still obliterate most of humanity — but their only role is to ensure they are never used. Accomplishing that task at lower levels — and at a significantly lower cost — not only makes sense, it strengthens U.S. security.” http://owl.li/9EsOs

Making diplomacy work - “The U.S. now needs a clear road map to show allies and the American people how serious and sustained talks with Iran can bear fruit,” writes Vali Nasr in Bloomberg. “Without such a road map, the U.S. will end up relying on pressure, triggering Iranian obduracy -- and we will be back where we started.”

--”There has to be credible reciprocity to build trust and create momentum in the talks.” On the U.S. side, that means a willingness to lift sanctions in exchange for nuclear concessions from Iran, Vasr concludes. http://owl.li/9EsIC

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Nuclear security report - About 80 percent of the national commitments made at the 2010 Nuclear Security Summit have been completed, according to a new report from The Arms Control Association and the Partnership for Global Security.

--Highlights: since the 2010 summit, Chile eliminated its entire stockpile of HEU, Russia halted plutonium production, and the U.S. and Russia signed a plutonium disposition protocol. http://owl.li/9EsLL

--Read the full report here. (pdf) http://owl.li/9EsFl

Trivia - What was the first multilateral arms control treaty to allow unannounced on-site inspections? Answer below.

Event - The rollout of the National Academy of Sciences report The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty: Technical Issues for the United States is Friday, March 30th, at 1:30. Event details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/9EtrX

What’s at Parchin? - Satellite images of Iran’s Parchin facility show a building suspected of containing a high-explosive test chamber, ISIS’ David Albright tells Reuters. http://owl.li/9EsAT

--IAEA inspectors turned away from Parchin on their most recent trips to Iran. The last time they had access, in 2005, inspectors “saw no relevant dual-use equipment or materials in the location visited.” More on what may or may not be in Parchin from Mark Fitzgerald at IISS. http://owl.li/9Eu4M

Rumor or report? - Kommersant is reporting - without sourcing its information or seeking official comment - that Sec. Hillary Clinton asked her Russian counterpart to warn Iran that it has one “last chance” to reach a negotiated resolution and avoid military action. “Russia expects a strike on Iran by the end of this year,” writes Bloomberg of the developing story. http://owl.li/9EseI

Consolidating fissile materials - The world is more secure thanks to states efforts to secure fissile materials. Even with successes at the previous and upcoming Nuclear Security Summits, there is more work to be done, write Matt Bunn and Eben Harrell of Harvard’s Belfer Center. “There are stocks of material and types of facilities that are not yet targeted for consolidation, and a range of political, bureaucratic, technical, and financial barriers to be overcome. Here are potentially effective policy tools that have not yet been fully utilized.”

--Read the full report here. (pdf) http://owl.li/9Esqy

IAEA and North Korea - “North Korea's senior nuclear negotiator on Monday said International Atomic Energy Agency officials would "at an early date" resume inspections in the nation,” Global Security Newswire reports. http://owl.li/9Esb0

Answer - The Antarctic Treaty, which prohibited military activity (including nuclear weapons testing and deployments) on the continent and cleared the way for decades of scientific cooperation. Last month, Navy Commander Darin Liston participated in a joint U.S.-Russia treaty inspection in Antarctica. He blogged about the trip at Dipnote, including how this plays with the “reset” and how long you can keep your gloves off at -32 degrees F. http://owl.li/9Es8J