Narrow Window, Improved Potential for Diplomatic Solution

On the radar: Obama: window is shrinking; Conditions for Iran diplomacy improve; Hadley against military strikes; Surface fleet crowded out; Military advice last; Questions on Parchin; Deterrence and its supporters; GAO on fissile security; Germany & NATO posture; and If DC were nuked.

Narrow window - "The window for solving this [Iranian nuclear] issue diplomatically is shrinking," President Obama said at a news conference yesterday.

--"We will do everything we can to resolve this diplomatically but ultimately we've got to have somebody on the other side of the table who's taking this seriously and I hope that the Iranian regime understands that,” said President Obama. http://owl.li/9FWEd

Subtle signs - “After months of increasingly ominous war talk by the United States, Israel and Iran, there are intriguing signs of potential diplomatic progress over Iran’s nuclear program,” writes Barbara Slavin in Al-Monitor.

--Events surrounding the upcoming P5+1 talks, meetings between U.S. and Israeli officials, and Iran’s parliamentary elections all point to movement on the diplomatic front, Slavin argues. http://owl.li/9FWHn

Hadley on Iran - “If something needs to be done, it is not military action. There’s a wide spectrum between sheer diplomacy and military action,” former Bush administration National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley said at an event yesterday. http://owl.li/9FWIK

McCain on Subs - “We are getting to a point where more than half of the Navy’s total shipbuilding budget will be required to build extraordinarily expensive nuclear submarines,” said Sen. John McCain at a recent SASC hearing on Navy posture.

--”I am worried that funding needed to modernize the surface fleet is being crowded out, and I ask that the witnesses comment on the impact of submarine construction costs on surface shipbuilding, and the potential impact to the shipbuilding industrial base.” http://owl.li/9FWJO

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Military leader’s advice in 80th paragraph - The Washington Times has a front-page, 2200-word story sketching out Israel’s means for attacking Iran. It paints Israel’s possible war plans as “difficult, but not impossible.”

--In the 80th paragraph, the article mentions that Gen. James Mattis, chief of U.S. Central Command, “clearly does not want war.” That might have been useful earlier in the article. http://owl.li/9FWLx

New to the twitters - @LPetersonDC - Laura Peterson, Senior Policy Analyst for National Security at Taxpayers for Common Sense.

Questioning Parchin imagery - Recent reports that Iran tried to “sanitize” the Parchin military facility are suspect given the ambiguous nature of the satellite imagery, writes Gareth Porter of Asia Times.

--”The claim does not reflect US intelligence, and a prominent think tank that has published satellite photography related to past controversies surrounding Iran's nuclear program has not found any photographs supporting it.“ http://owl.li/9FWMO

Deterrence politics - The political right once defended the principles of deterrence. Today, it is against deterrence strategies (at least with Iran).

--“Krauthammer, the Heritage Foundation, the American Enterprise Institute and others denounce containment and deterrence and would lead us instead to a policy that culminates in a preventive war. It is the right’s version of the nuclear freeze — a simple solution that actually doesn’t solve anything,” writes Fareed Zakaria. http://owl.li/9FWNU

GAO: 4-year lockdown lacking specifics - “The President’s [4-year goal to secure global stocks of fissile materials] is a worthwhile effort...However, as GAO reported in December 2010, the governmentwide strategy approved by the National Security Council (NSC) for the initiative lacked specific details regarding how the initiative will be implemented.” New GAO report here. http://owl.li/9FWOH

Germany and NATO nuclear posture - “Germany is pushing for changes in the [NATO’s] declaratory policy and for a stronger role of NATO in arms control and disarmament. Yet at the same time, Berlin is trying to dodge a debate about the deployment of new types of U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe,” Oliver Meier has the story at Arms Control Now. http://owl.li/9FWPM

Rational actor - “Iran is making logical decisions according to its worldview, not ours. When you look at the situation through their eyes, their decisions are perfectly rational,” write Joshua Foust and Bryan Gold of the American Security Project in The Hill. When we understand this, we can create real opportunities to effect the changes we want.” http://owl.li/9FWR8

Nuclear terrorism scenario for DC - FEMA recently studied what would happen if a terrorist set off a 10kt nuclear weapon in downtown Washington (16th and K NW). “[The report] paints a horrifying, incredibly detailed radioactive portrait, step by vaporizing step,” writes Gizmodo. http://owl.li/9FWS0

--Read the full report: ”National Capital Region: Key Response Planning Factors for the Aftermath of Nuclear Terrorism” (pdf) http://owl.li/9FWTw