Previewing the Battle Over Nuclear Spending

On the radar: Marking lines of debate; Making the bomber nuclear; Iran’s AP; Dog and pony and missile show; Yun on a 3rd test; Apprehension on MOX cost, schedule; As if scolding an errant child; Missile defense burden sharing; Hibbs on the future of the AP; Mousavian on talks; and the Red phone getting a new role.

April 27, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Nuke debate on the horizon - Yesterday’s House Strategic Forces subcommittee markup of the 2013 defense bill may have lasted a couple minutes, but don’t be fooled - next month’s consideration of the bill in the full committee will likely see a fierce debate over nuclear spending.

--Statements from the subcommittee leadership shows a wide gap on nukes. Rep. Michael Turner (R-OH) also supports a $350 million plus-up to missile defense funding, including $100 million for a BMD system on the East coast.

--Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-CA) questioned increasing funding for nuclear weapons while cutting NNSA jobs, and increasing funding for Ground-based Midcourse Defense, which has not had a successful test since 2008. Kate Brannen of Defense News has more on the looming congressional debate. http://owl.li/ayQoZ

House wants nuclear bomber now - The Air Force previously indicated that it plans to certify any new bomber for nuclear missions sometime after the first block comes into service. The House Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee disagrees. It’s draft of the 2013 defense bill includes language that would require the new bomber to be nuclear-capable immediately upon fielding. Elaine Grossman reports for Global Security Newswire. http://owl.li/ayPSJ

Iran and its AP - A report from Iran’s official news agency quotes Iran’s ambassador to Moscow as saying that Iran could ratify the Additional Protocol to its Safeguards Agreement with the IAEA as part of a deal under which Iran would halt expansion of enrichment and the West would halt more sanctions. AP has the story about Iran’s AP. http://owl.li/ayPPi

--Background: Iran previously signed but did not ratify its Additional Protocol in 2003, voluntarily implementing the protocol and allowing more intrusive IAEA inspections of its program. Iran suspended implementation of its AP in 2005 after the IAEA referred Iran to the Security Council. h/t USIP http://owl.li/ayPNh

Welcome to Early Warning - Subscribe to our morning email or follow us on twitter.

--Have a tip? Email earlywarning@ploughshares.org. Want to support this work? Click here.

Event - “Nuclear Weapons Spending in the 2013 Budget,” a Capitol Hill Briefing with Chris Preble, Russell Rumbaugh, and Laura Peterson. Monday April 30 at noon. Event details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/avFsS

”Not a great month for North Korea’s image-makers” - First there was the less-than-impressive missile launch. Now, experts say North Korea’s road-mobile ICBMs, displayed at a parade last week, are mock-ups -- and low quality mock-ups at that, The New York Times’ Choe Sang-Hun reports.

--“It remains unknown if they were designed this way to confuse foreign analysts, or if the designers simply did some sloppy work,” missile experts Markus Schiller and Robert Schmucker wrote in their original analysis on Arms Control Wonk. (pdf) http://owl.li/ayPLl

The real North Korean threat - A nuclear test by North Korea may not change the strategic balance, but it would have consequences. Ploughshares Fund’s Philip Yun’s explains, “[A third test] compounds the risk that nuclear technology or material will get into the hands of a terrorist network...may foster a political climate that makes it easier for others to test...finally, North Korea may feel emboldened to act more provocatively.” http://owl.li/ayPJm

Congress anxious about MOX - The $5 billion Mixed Oxide Fuel plant in South Carolina has been plagued with cost explosions, construction delays, and project scope expansions. Cost projections have more than doubled in the last two years. Now the plant is coming under fire from congressional appropriators. Rob Pavey at The Augusta Chronicle has the story. http://owl.li/ayPHt

Tweet - @DangerRoom: U.S. Amasses Stealth Jet Armada Near Iran http://bit.ly/InRq8N

GAO sees troubled missile defenses - “[DOD] really has no idea if its missile defense systems will do their job, because over the past several decades it hasn’t concocted validated targets to test them, fielded proven interceptors, or even collected all the data needed to assess their early performance.” Jeff Smith of iWatch compares GAO’s assessment of missile defense plans to “scolding an errant child.” http://owl.li/ayPGd

Huntsville sees “progress” - “Missile commanders review 2011 progress at 14th AUSA Missiles Conference,” reports the The Huntsville Times. http://owl.li/ayPCK

U.S. lawmakers to NATO: pay up for missile defense - The Strategic Forces subcommittee bill also holds back 25% of funds authorized for European missile defense funds until the NATO allies spell out their contributions. Subcommittee chair Rep. Michael Turner argues that the US can no longer pay for the European shield by itself, "especially not if it means neglecting the missile defense of the American people." http://owl.li/ayPAV

Department of catchy headlines - “The Unspectacular Future of the IAEA Additional Protocol” by the great Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment. http://owl.li/ayPsO

Quote - After the P5+1 talks in Istanbul, former Iranian negotiator Hossein Mousavian is optimistic about future talks, he told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour. “The reason is in Istanbul for the first time, they agreed to find a solution in the framework of NPT,” Mousavian said, adding, “Now the base is reciprocity [and] mutual confidence building.” http://owl.li/ayPyO

Cyber on the red phone - The US and Russia are considering repurposing their Cold War nuclear hotline for cybersecurity crises, The New York Times reports. http://owl.li/ayPwt