Warhead Programs See Cost Overruns and Cascading Delays

On the radar: W76 LEP in trouble; NL East champs; Iranian rial loses 40% of value; Not repeating the mistakes of 2002-2003; Garwin on BMD; Nun too good; Whiffs of economic reform in N. Korea; and LEGO Dr. Strangelove.

October 2, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Stockpile logjam - A recent report from the DOE Inspector General noted that efforts to refurbish the W76 nuclear warhead are slipping behind schedule as costs grow. The report notes that this delay and budget hike could cause problems for other stockpile work.

--”The risk, according to the report, is that rising costs and a flat budget for the work mean the project will not be completed by its scheduled end date of 2018. That could have cascading effects, delaying the next nuclear weapon in line for refurbishment, the B61 bomb, because the same facilities are needed for work on each weapon,” writes John Fleck for the Albuquerque Journal. http://bit.ly/U6CuRH

Timeline - “Iran already has enough low-enriched uranium for several atomic bombs if refined to a high degree but it may still be a few years away from being able to build a nuclear-armed missile if it decided to go down that path.” Fredrik Dahl at Reuters has the analysis. http://reut.rs/QUXULo

Nats - @Cirincione: Wow. I've got chills. #Nats are NL East Champions. One more impossible becomes inevitable.

--Photo from @jonallendc of SecDef Leon Panetta at yesterday’s game. http://bit.ly/OB6yD2

Welcome to Early Warning - Subscribe to our morning email or follow us on twitter.

--Have a tip? Email earlywarning@ploughshares.org. Want to support this work? Click here.

Rial collapsing - The Iranian rial, already severely depressed from the effects of sanctions and economic mismanagement, lost 40% of its value over the past week.

--”The shriveling value of the rial is now contributing to fears in Iran of a severe inflationary spiral, as an increasing amount of rials are required to buy food, medicine and machinery needed from abroad. At the same time, Iran’s ability to sell oil, its main export, has been severely hampered by the sanctions on the nuclear program,” writes Rick Gladstone for The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/SZzZd7

Tweet - @ReutersIran: Iran has been able to ride out sanctions: Ahmadinejad http://reut.rs/SwfQ2e

Intel - As the public debate continues on whether or not to strike Iran, “the intelligence community should not repeat mistakes it made in 2002 and 2003, nor allow itself to become the scapegoat for decisions that properly reside with the nation's political and military leadership,” writes former national intelligence officer Roger George in The LA Times. George offers recommendations for how the intel community can shore up its intelligence process as it assesses Iran’s nuclear program. http://lat.ms/WefdL8

Garwin on BMD - There has been a lot of analysis questioning the assumptions and conclusions of the recent National Academies report on missile defenses. Now Dick Garwin, venerated physicist and weapons scientist, challenges the report’s analysis of radar capabilities, the utility of boost phases defenses, and the problem of countermeasures. All Things Nuclear has the preview. http://bit.ly/UDNSPL

--Full memo: ”Re: the National Academies of Science Report, ‘Making Sense of Ballistic Missile Defense…’” by Richard Garwin. (pdf) http://bit.ly/SuOklF

Zing - “Security at Y-12 nun too good” by Peter Stockton with the Fissile Materials Working Group in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/PKYw6g

Nork Reforms - Reports from North Korea say that the regime be seeking agrarian reforms that allow farmers to keep 30-50% of their crops and decide what to do with the surplus - an attempt to boost productivity through an experiment in economic liberalization. This would be a significant change from Kim Jong Il’s efforts to crack down on private markets. The Economist has the story. Headline is a eyebrow-raiser. http://econ.st/O2ryRx

Quote - “It is our strong view that the possession of weapons of mass destruction is not a guarantee of security or greater independence. Kazakhstan's own record goes to show that countries reap huge benefits from the renunciation of nuclear weapons,” said Kazakhstan’s Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kairat Umarov at the UN General Assembly last week. http://bit.ly/UDOxR2

European Missile Defense Center - Last week the US opened its European Integrated Air and Missile Defense Center in Einsiedlerhof, Germany. The Center is intended to support NATO’s role in the European missile defense mission. Air Force Magazine has the story. http://bit.ly/QKKg0s

LEGO Strangelove - What’s funnier than watching Peter Sellers attempt to cope with an accidental nuclear apocalypse? Watching the whole thing recreated with LEGOs.

--Watch the stop motion, LEGO homage to “Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb.” At Boing Boing. http://bit.ly/Qn5Q92