Iran Sanctions Advance in the House

On the radar: House approves Iran sanctions, now on to the Senate; Tracing U.S.-Pakistan tensions; Towards NATO-Russia cooperation; NTI’s website gets a makeover; Spotlight on small nuclear forces; Bender on global zero; and Evaluating the EMP threat.

December 15, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

House approves new Iran sanctions - The House voted 410-11 to approve a bill that would tighten sanctions on Iran and allow for sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran. The bill now goes to the Senate, where action on the bill is not expected soon. AP reports. http://owl.li/80yR7

--The State Department is not commenting on the new sanctions, Josh Rogin reports. Some experts have said that financial sanctions may not be effective. “There is political pressure (on the Iranian regime), but it's not likely to change the attitude of the Iranian government on the nuclear issue,” Vali Nasr told USA Today. http://owl.li/80Cwx

The dysfunctional U.S.-Pakistan relationship - “While the Pakistanis have hardly been innocent, they have a point when they say America has not been the easiest of partners.” Bill Keller traces the increasing tensions in the U.S.-Pakistan relationship.

The Afghan peace process could be a turning point, Keller concludes. “It gives Pakistan something it craves: a seat at the table where the future of Afghanistan is plotted....It could drain some of the acrimony and paranoia from the U.S.-Pakistan rhetoric. It might not save Afghanistan, but it could be a helpful start to saving Pakistan.” http://owl.li/80vgm

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Game Change - From taking military action off the table with Iran to reciprocal nuclear arms reductions - Stephen Walt has 5 “bold and risky” proposals that could have dramatic effects on international politics. http://owl.li/80v5F

Sweden, Mexico: ratify the CTBT - Indonesia just ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Now the Foreign Ministers of Sweden and Mexico are calling on the eight hold-out states to do the same. http://owl.li/80v4d

Productive arena for NATO-Russia cooperation - Despite the flurry of news on tension with Russia suggesting otherwise, NATO and Russia have common interests in cooperating to improve international security. “To strengthen the nuclear non-proliferation regime, Russia and NATO should cooperate to: dissuade states from becoming nuclear “threshold states;” deter NPT withdrawal; treat the four non-NPT nuclear states in a fair and balanced way; and encourage the creation of additional nuclear-weapon-free-zones,” writes Pierre Goldschmidt for Carnegie’s Proliferation Analysis. http://owl.li/80vjd

Reset setbacks - Example of news saying otherwise: “Two-and-a-half years after the Obama administration launched its much-touted effort to patch up relations with the Kremlin, the once-bitter Cold War foes are at odds about everything from missile defense to the deployment of Russia's conventional forces in Europe,” AP reports. http://owl.li/80uXS

NTI’s new digs - The Nuclear Threat Initiative has wrapped its impressive archive of facts and analyses in a newly designed website and placed it under the tree just in time for Christmas. Non-wonks can check out the fresh layout and clear overview of WMD threats. Wonks can enjoy the comprehensive treaties and regimes section - now with flyout menus. http://owl.li/80yXK

”Small Nuclear Forces” - As arms control efforts advance, the arsenals of the smaller nuclear powers - UK, France, China, India and Pakistan - will deserve greater focus. A new Whitehall Report from RUSI looks into these countries’ perspectives and provides analysis of their doctrines and disarmament approaches.

--The report puts the 5 smaller nuclear powers into 3 categories: Satisfied nuclear states (UK and France), “restrained” nuclear states (China and India) and “embattled” power (Pakistan). Read the full report for more from contributors Malcom Chambers, Rajesh Basrur, Camille Grand, Teng Jianqun, and Feroz Hassan Khan. (pdf) http://owl.li/80v8t

Peace In the Post-Cold War World - Given tensions between the US and Russia, it’s worth reflecting on what it was like during the Cold War. ‘“The fall of Soviet Russia, for all of its many positive ramifications, helped to end the constant danger of a war that would truly and catastrophically "end all wars."’ writes Michael Cohen in The Atlantic. “A more complex but decidedly more secure and safer world has replaced it.”http://owl.li/80uVY

The logic of nuclear zero - From nuclear terrorism to nuclear modernization plans, “the list of nuclear dangers has only expanded over the past two decades,” Lawrence Bender writes in The Huffington Post.“We have made tremendous progress, but if we are to avert nuclear catastrophe, our leaders must act with much greater urgency to set our course to the elimination of all nuclear weapons.” http://owl.li/80uOW

EMP folks off target - A cadre of conservative experts give much attention to the threat of an Electromagnetic Pulse weapon to the electronics and infrastructure in the US. Whether that threat is significant is debatable. As Scientific American points out, the high-altitude nuclear explosion threat might not be so much about frying iPods in Omaha, but knocking out low-earth-orbit satellites. http://owl.li/80uMK