IAEA Verdict Won’t Derail the Iran Deal

PMD in perspective - Any day now the IAEA will release a new report on the “possible military dimensions” of Iran’s nuclear program. The report is expected meet the requirements of the comprehensive nuclear agreement, but it likely will not satisfy commentators who wanted conclusive statements on Iran’s past nuclear weapons work. "While a truthful confession [from Iran] would be valuable, it is not necessary for a sound agreement,” writes Robert Einhorn.

--“With rigorous implementation of the JCPOA's unprecedented monitoring measures, strict enforcement of compliance, enhanced intelligence gathering and a credible threat of forceful intervention to thwart any breakout attempt, it will be possible to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, despite Iran's failure to come clean about the past and the absence of a more definitive and satisfying conclusion of the PMD issue than what will unfold in coming days and weeks,” writes Einhorn. Full article in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1jxdpx3

Tweet - @ForeignPolicy: Ali Akbar Salehi & @ErnestMoniz sealed the Iran nuclear deal by fighting science with science. #globalthinkers http://bit.ly/1OtKAP4

Too close for comfort - “Turkey’s downing of a Russian fighter jet could get very serious, very quickly. With America pledged to defend Turkey, our NATO ally, any shooting conflict with Russia could draw in the United States – and our 60 nuclear bombs stored just miles from the Syrian border… Accidents and miscalculations are bound to happen… and the inclusion of nuclear weapons on opposite sides of this engagement – Russia has 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons stored around the country — makes the margins for error uncomfortably small,” writes Geoff Wilson for War is Boring. Full story here. http://bit.ly/1OjfzgL

Hair trigger - The United States and Russia still keep many hundreds of nuclear warheads ready to launch on warning. President Obama and Vladimir Putin have mere minutes to decide if a blip on a radar screen means they should release Armageddon. Both countries militaries practice launching several times per week. Given the recent military encounters between the U.S. and Russia, there is a growing risk that small escalations would drag the countries to the nuclear brink. Bruce Blair lays out the problem and provides six policy recommendations for defusing the situation. Full article in Politico. http://politi.co/1MVtCEO

ALCM - The most controversial aspect of the Obama Administration’s massive project to rebuild the nuclear arsenal “is the administration's plan to build a new nuclear cruise missile that is expensive, unnecessary and inconsistent with the president's stated policy,” write Lt. Gen. Robert Gard (USA, ret.) and Sarah Tully.

--“Going forward with the new cruise missile does not ‘reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy.’ In fact, it codifies a Cold War view that allowing for tactical use of nuclear weapons affords the president necessary (so-called) flexibility. The new cruise missile would not enhance our deterrent in a way that makes us safer. And it funnels funds away from other priorities that have greater utility for national security.” Full story in U.S. News and World Report. http://bit.ly/21rV72j

See also - “Canceling the LRSO cruise missile program would be an appropriate way to demonstrate implementation of the administration’s Nuclear Posture Review, Nuclear Employment Strategy and take a small but significant leading step towards its vision of a world without nuclear weapons. This step could provide momentum for a global ban on these weapons that would improve strategic stability and the security of all nations, “writes James Doyle for The National Interest. Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1YEf7ww

Nuclear bailout - “Congress is currently working to create a loophole to pay for the navy’s leg of the nuclear triad... outside of its standard budget: the so-called National Sea-Based Deterrence Fund,” writes Sarah Tully for The National Interest. “Some policy makers are indeed eyeing the special submarine fund as a model for a potential way to bankroll the new bomber.”

--“Skirting responsibility for the cost of a weapons system is admitting that it is not affordable,” writes Tully. “The Pentagon base budget is zero-sum. If the Navy doesn’t foot the bill for its submarines, or the Air Force for its new bomber, that money is still going to have to come from elsewhere within the defense budget.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1TnBLWQ

Tweet - @plough_shares: On #GivingTuesday, create a safer, more secure future without nuclear weapons. --> bit.ly/1W9GafT

Tweet - @David_Santoro1: 6 Reasons Why #Australia Won't Get #Nuclear Weapons http://bit.ly/1SutGPm

Human rights after JCPOA - “Iranian human rights activists, hungry for political openings and economic relief at home, strongly backed the Iran nuclear deal and provided critical support in the contentious Congressional debate,” writes Bree Baccaglini for The Hill. “Now they are under attack by hardliners in the Iranian regime and they need international support more than ever.”

--“The United States and other governments should rally support for the United Nations’ and other international efforts to address human rights concerns and to open space for civil society to flourish.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1TihyB5

Tweet - @NTI_WMD: #DYK South Africa built 6 #nuclear warheads b4 renouncing nuclear weapons in 1991?bit.ly/1x9koCp

Quick Hits:

--“Trident could be vulnerable to cyber-attack, former defence secretary says,” by Nicholas Watt for The Guardian. http://bit.ly/1XolOQQ

--“These ridiculously expensive bombs could fuel the next nuclear arms race,” by Paul Szoldra for Tech Insider. http://bit.ly/1QP9slM

--“Rebel with a bomb,” by Matthew Fuhrmann and Michael Horowitz for Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/1XEaH6r

Dessert:

Disarming Metal Gear Solid - The makers of the game “Metal Gear Solid V” have created an “in-game metagame that will unlock a new story cutscene once all players have disarmed their in-game nuclear arsenals,” writes Kyle Orland for Ars Technica.

--Players of the game had built up tens of thousands of in-game nuclear weapons. After the announcement of the metagame, players slashed total arsenals to 200 weapons on certain platforms. Getting to zero has proved difficult, as do-gooder players organized to ban and disarm bombs while toll players organized to steal nuclear weapons and horde them. Full story here. http://bit.ly/1N1G0D9

Events:

--“House Foreign Affairs and House Armed Services joint hearing on Russian Arms Control Cheating: Violation of the INF Treaty and the Administration’s Responses One Year Later,” featuring Rose Gottemoeller and Brian McKeon. Tuesday, December 1st from 3:30 - 6:30 PM. Webcast on committee website here. http://1.usa.gov/1kRDSqK

--“PONI 2015 Winter Conference,” featuring Tom Countryman and TBA feature panel. Wednesday, December 9th and Thursday, December 10th at Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave., Washington, DC. RSVP here: --“Reducing the Risk of Nuclear War in the Nordic/Baltic Region,” featuring Barry Blechman, Alex Bollfrass and Laicie Heeley. Tuesday, December 15th from 12:00 - 1:30 PM at The Stimson Center, 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW, 8th Floor, Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1kRxVdf

--“Implementing the Iran Nuclear Deal: What's Next?,” featuring numerous experts. Thursday, December 17th from 8:30 - 3:45 PM at The Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street, NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20005. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1lsMjIF