No PMD Surprises in IAEA Report

Iran pursued nukes until 2003 - “The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed Wednesday that Iran had an active program to develop a nuclear weapon until the end of 2003, and it said some uncoordinated activities continued until as late as 2009,” writes Karen DeYoung for The Washington Post. “‘The Agency has no credible indications of activities in Iran relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device after 2009,’ the IAEA said in a report.”

--“The report will be presented to the IAEA board on Dec. 15 to determine whether it adequately deals with all outstanding questions about the prior program. ‘The State Department has forwarded the report to Congress’, spokesman Mark Toner said. He noted that the IAEA assessment was ‘consistent’ with a National Intelligence Estimate in 2007 that Iran had stopped its nuclear program in 2003.” Get the full story here. http://wapo.st/1SxQaz6

Nothing new - “The IAEA’s assessment that Iran was engaged in activities relevant to the development of a nuclear weapon prior to 2004 is not surprising. That finding is consistent with what U.S. intelligence agencies, and nonproliferation watchdogs—including the Arms Control Association—have long-assumed,” said Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association. Read the full press release here. http://bit.ly/1Tn7lU2

Full report - “Final Assessment on the Past and Present Outstanding Issues regarding Iran’s Nuclear Program,” by the Director General to the Board of Governors for the International Atomic Energy Agency. http://bit.ly/1HI8aqa

The Pentagon’s spending binge - “Today, U.S. and Russian forces still far exceed deterrence requirements [possessing 1,780 and some 1,900 nuclear warheads respectively deliverable] on several hundred strategic bombers and missiles,” writes Daryl Kimball for Arms Control Today. “Worse yet, both countries are pursuing a multi-decade nuclear weapons spending binge that promises to perpetuate excessive force levels and Cold War-era war-fighting capabilities for generations to come.”

--“By the mid-2020s, the cost of nuclear weapons will consume 7 percent of the entire defense budget, according to Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work… Obama can still use the time he has left in office to reduce the role and number of nuclear weapons by trimming back and in some cases forgoing redundant and costly nuclear weapons systems. By doing so, he would open the way to further reducing the role and size of U.S. and Russian nuclear forces and to a safer and more secure future.” Get the full story here. http://bit.ly/1IFWUW3

Tweet - @theatomproject1: Check out @washingtonpost graphic on damage to Marshall Islands of #NuclearWeapons Testing http://wapo.st/1lmlINu

The inseparable Israel-Iran policy link - “In the course of the last two years, particularly this past summer, we have also seen that Israel has played a far greater role in America’s Iran policy than many previously would have admitted. And for many on Capitol Hill, the reality is that Iran is primarily viewed through an Israeli lens,” writes Trita Parsi for The National Interest. “A massive campaign was launched [following the end of the Cold War] to depict Iran as ‘the greatest threat [to peace] and greatest problem in the Middle East.’”

--“Clear-cut causes, even when losing, are preferable to lack of clarity. In other words, the Israelization of Iran will likely remain good for business, despite the passing of the nuclear deal… Thus, even the reduction of a nuclear threat from Iran as well as a continuation of Iran disentangling itself from Israel (for instance, compare Ahmadinejad’s rhetoric on Israel to Rouhani’s silence on Israel)... but ultimately insufficient to de-Israelize Iran.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1jyvcUH

Tweet - @PSRsecurity: Think #nuclearweapons don’t affect you? Think again: check out our map of #nuclear mishaps in your #backyard! bit.ly/1EZPGJO

Sandy Berger’s finest hour - On July 4th, 1999, “Pakistan and India were at war and Nawaz Sharif, the prime minister of Pakistan, was across Pennsylvania Avenue at Blair House asking for President Bill Clinton’s help,” writes Bruce Riedel for The Daily Beast. “Samuel Berger, the president’s national-security adviser, [explained to Clinton]... two nuclear-armed states are at war and locked in an escalation ladder that could end in Armageddon. You have one shot at stopping the spiral.”

--“Pakistan had secretly sent hundreds of troops across the line of control in Kashmir… [In defense, India] launched a furious counterattack with air and ground forces… The CIA wrote in its top-secret Daily Brief that Pakistan was preparing its nuclear weapons for deployment and possible use… Berger urged Clinton… to make clear to the prime minister that only a Pakistani withdrawal could avert further escalation.

--“It was Berger’s finest hour. He had grasped the peril of the situation early and directly discussed the matter with the Indians. He fully understood the stakes and articulated them succinctly.” The advice he provided the president with led to a peaceful resolution to the conflict and nuclear war was averted. Sandy’s passing on December 2nd was a loss for us all. He will be sorely missed. Read the full piece here. http://thebea.st/1Sx1qvt

North Korea building test tunnel - “Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that North Korea is excavating a new tunnel for nuclear testing at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. This tunnel is in a new area of the site in addition to the three others where the North has either conducted nuclear tests or excavated tunnels in the past. While there are no indications that a nuclear test is imminent, the new tunnel adds to North Korea’s ability to conduct additional detonations at Punggye-ri over the coming years if it chooses to do so,” writes Jeffrey Lewis for 38 North.

--“Pyongyang would be able to conduct additional tests in the future. One limiting factor is the physical size of the mountain—how many branches can be constructed with sufficient overburden to contain nuclear explosions conducted within. A second challenge is so-called tired mountain syndrome—the hypothesis that repeated nuclear explosive tests will weaken the rock in the mountain, leaving it unable to contain nuclear explosions.” Get the full story here. http://bit.ly/1O5vP0b

Quick Hits:

--“Duane Arnold: The Safety Upgrade that Downgraded Safety,” by Dave Lochbaum for the Union of Concerned Scientists. http://bit.ly/1O5yrLx

--“GOP lawmaker wants to withhold funds to nuclear watchdog over Iran,” by Kristina Wong for The Hill. http://bit.ly/1OIFtZv

--“New report confirms Iran's nuclear weapons program,” by Barbara Slavin for Al Monitor. http://bit.ly/1PzYSzb

Events:

--“PONI 2015 Winter Conference,” featuring Tom Countryman and TBA feature panel. Wednesday, December 9th and Thursday, December 10th at Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington, DC. RSVP here. --“Reducing the Risk of Nuclear War in the Nordic/Baltic Region,” featuring Barry Blechman, Alex Bollfrass and Laicie Heeley. Tuesday, December 15th from 12:00 - 1:30 PM at Stimson Center, 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW, 8th Floor, Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1kRxVdf

--“Implementing the Iran Nuclear Deal: What's Next?,” featuring numerous experts. Thursday, December 17th from 8:30 AM - 3:45 PM at Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1lsMjIF

--“The PMD Report: Reactions and Implications for the Nuclear Deal with Iran,” featuring Mark Fitzpatrick, Ariane Tabatabai, Greg Thielmann and Kelsey Davenport. Thursday, December 10th from 9:30 - 11:00 AM at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Choate Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/21y0q0h

Dessert:

A cinematic nuclear treasure trove - “Nuclear weapons physicists have an odd role these days. They can’t actually test anything because, you know, one doesn’t just set off a nuclear weapon anymore,” writes Sarah Zhang for Wired. “That means computer simulations. Lots and lots them. Spriggs found [these models were] not always accurate… [leading him to] 7,000 original films at Los Alamos National Labs in New Mexico.” Read more here.

http://bit.ly/1IqUb87