Old News and the IAEA Report

On the radar: Hersh sees little new in IAEA Report; IAEA seeking to reprimand Iran; Who do you trust with the nukes; Blinding ourselves on Iran; Caution on covert action with Iran; Counterproductive sanctions; “Memo-gate” on Pakistan; Missile defense tech exchange with Russia; and a Hypersonic missile is rather fast.

November 18, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Iran report “underwhelming” - The IAEA report “leaves us where we’ve been since 2002, when George Bush declared Iran to be a member of the Axis of Evil—with lots of belligerent talk but no definitive evidence of a nuclear-weapons program,” Seymour Hersh writes in The New Yorker.

--Retired IAEA director Robert Kelley called the report “old news.” “Those who want to drum up support for a bombing attack on Iran sort of aggressively misrepresented the report,” Greg Thielmann said.

--”The report suggests that Iran is working to shorten the timeframe to building the bomb once and if it makes that decision. But it remains apparent that a nuclear-armed Iran is still not imminent nor is it inevitable,” was ACA’s analysis. http://owl.li/7y1hS

Seeking a consensus on Iran - The IAEA Board of Governors is “trying to formulate a resolution reprimanding Iran and seeking greater clarity about its nuclear intentions while avoiding language that would prevent support from China and Russia — two nations that have frequently differed with the West over Iran,” reports The New York Times. http://owl.li/7y1j8

Welcome to Early Warning - Subscribe to our morning email or follow us on twitter.

Trust poll goes nuclear - “Fox News poll of 370 Republican primary voters: “Which Republican presidential candidate do you trust MOST with nuclear weapons?” Gingrich 30% … Romney 17% … Cain 7% … Paul 7% … Perry 5% … Bachmann 4% … Huntsman 2% … Santorum 2% … Johnson 1% http://fxn.ws/sReYix. From Mike Allen’s POLITICO Playbook. http://owl.li/7y1tl

Congress could blind itself - Several weeks ago Congress withdrew funding from UNESCO, as required by law after that organization voted in favor of Palestine’s bid for membership. The same thing could happen to any other UN organization, including the IAEA. “The irony of this policy is that it will undermine the American objective of understanding the Iranian nuclear program at the precise moment that such information is being disseminated by the IAEA,” writes Joel Rubin.

--”It's time for Congress to change the law...Congress must find other ways to convince the United Nations to not support Palestinian statehood, if that's its goal. But undermining our security to get there just doesn't make sense.” http://owl.li/7y1lp

Think twice about covert action - “Many Iranians still view the U.S. government with wariness and outright suspicion,” notes Ted Galen Carpenter. “A barely disguised “covert” program to overthrow the regime—much less an ostentatious endorsement of regime opponents—would assuredly fuel that suspicion and play into the hands of the mullahs. A more cautious, restrained policy is advisable.” http://owl.li/7y1vh

Unintended effects of sanctions - International sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program are hurting the middle class by making the banking system more difficult. But sancitions are having the opposite effect for the Revolutionary Guards. “They are in control of most of the smuggling, and whoever is smuggling earns a profit," Trita Parsi says. http://owl.li/7y2wZ

CBI sanctions introduced - Senator Mitch McConnell has introduced an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act that would sanction the Central Bank of Iran. This summer 90 members of Congress signed a letter to the administration urging CBI sanctions, though officials are warning that this could cause a spike in oil prices. http://owl.li/7y1y0

Pakistan memo - The Cable has obtained the document (pdf) at the center of the "memo-gate" controversy, sent allegedly from the highest echelons of Pakistani's civilian leadership to Adm. Michael Mullen in the wake of the killing of Osama bin Laden.”

--”The memo offered to reshape Pakistan's national security leadership, cleaning house of elements within the powerful military and intelligence agencies that have supported Islamic radicals and the Taliban, drastically altering Pakistani foreign policy -- and requesting U.S. help to avoid a military coup.” Josh Rogin reports. http://owl.li/7y1HD

Data offer - The US may offer Russia some technical details on the SM-3 Interceptor, Global Security Newswire reports. “It is believed that U.S. officials think that by giving [the data] to Moscow, the Kremlin would finally understand that the SM-3 is too slow to be a threat to Russia's strategic missiles.” http://owl.li/7y1Mi

”2,400 Miles in Minutes? No Sweat!” - “The military is a small step closer to its dream of hitting a target anywhere on Earth in less than an hour” with the successful test of a hypersonic missile. From Wired’s DangerRoom. http://owl.li/7y2u2