150 House Members Show Support for Iran Nuclear Diplomacy

On the radar: Pro-diplomacy caucus in the House; Corker clears Senate; House could get messy; North Korea’s arsenal growing; Saudi Arabia’s positioning; Costly qualitative edge; and MOX is laughably over budget.

May 8, 2015 | Edited by Faris Alikhan, Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

House Dems support Iran bill - 150 House Democrats signed a letter expressing support for President Obama’s negotiations with Iran. As The Washington Post’s Greg Sargent notes, the number is significant, since it signals strong Congressional support for the deal, especially if House Republicans vote against to disapprove of the final agreement.

--“This letter reflects wide support for the agreement as outlined in the framework,” said Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL), a key organizer of the letter. “If there is a vote in the Congress to disapprove of the final agreement, and it is an agreement that reflects the framework, then I think we have enough votes in the Congress to sustain a veto.” http://wapo.st/1AKsoq4

--Read the letter and see the signers here. (pdf) http://wapo.st/1DWlzlc

Iran bill clears Senate - The Corker-Cardin bill was overwhelmingly passed by the Senate, with 98 Senators approving the measure, with only one dissenting vote from Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR).

--Sen. Cotton’s attempts to add controversial amendments to the bill are one of the reasons why Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell curtailed debate on the bill and moved it to a floor vote Thursday. http://nyti.ms/1FRw13B

On to the House - The Corker-Cardin bill faces Republican opposition in the House, reports Politico. The 30-member conservative House Freedom Caucus is pressing Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) to add poison pill amendments to the bill that could lead to a presidential veto. Boehner might be forced to follow Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s example and forestall attempts to vote on amendments by moving the bill quickly for a vote. http://politi.co/1dRLwxw

Tweet - @StephenUCS: US weapons not on "hair trigger" @USNPT? You're splitting hairs. 400+ ICBMs able to launch in minutes #endhairtrigger http://bit.ly/1F1CkAD

New look at North Korea - North Korea’s nuclear program is attracting renewed attention, as analysts estimate that the country’s nuclear arsenal and production capability is expanding beyond the dozen or so nuclear weapons it currently has.

--As the New York Times reports, North Korea’s nuclear program necessitates a different approach than Iran’s, since inducements to end North Korea’s economic isolation are likely to be ineffective. The State Department’s North Korea team is reportedly working on ways to restart negotiations and to freeze North Korea’s enrichment. Full story here: http://nyti.ms/1zJwbbZ

Saudi decisions - A common concern about the Iran deal is whether a deal will give other regional powers incentive to seek their own nuclear program (or even weapons). “We prefer a region without nuclear weapons. But if Iran does it, nothing can prevent us from doing it too, not even the international community,” said Abdullah Al Askar, a former chairman of the foreign affairs committee of Saudi Arabia’s advisory legislature.

--But there’s a lot of speculation here. “It depends on the quality of any negotiated agreement with Iran—will it be airtight and will the Arab countries and Turkey have confidence in whether it will effectively stop Iran from becoming a nuclear weapons power?..If they have confidence that the next American president is going to be very tough-minded and will make sure that this deal is implemented, this will diminish the probability that any of them becomes a nuclear weapons power,” said Nicholas Burns. Full story from Yaroslav Trofimov in The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1FRo5ze

--For deeper reading: “Atomic Kingdom: If Iran Builds the Bomb, Will Saudi Arabia Be Next?” by Colin Kahl, Melissa Dalton and Matthew Irvine for the Center for a New American Security. March 2013. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1KqrEeU

A new type of arms race - Russia and the U.S. are modernizing their nuclear inventories, including warhead guidance and launch systems, and developing new ballistic missiles submarines. While the cost of Russia’s modernization is unknown, the U.S. effort will total $348 billion over the next decade alone. Analysts are concerned that this modernization signals a different type of arms race.

--"It's one in which technological advance is the race," says Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists editor John Mecklin. "Nuclear countries are trying to make sure that the other nuclear countries don't get some sort of technological edge." http://read.bi/1IVnXzJ

Tweet - ‏@CNS_Updates : .@businessinsider calls US & #Russia #nuclear #modernization "a different kind of arms race" #TrillionDollarTriad http://bit.ly/1P66xFu

MOX boondoggle - Despite the House’s vote approving over $300 million for the Mixed Oxide Fuel Facility (MOX) in South Carolina, analysts and advocacy groups warn that the facility is over-budget, behind schedule, and has no real customers.

--”In 2004, construction for the site was estimated to cost $1.6 billion and was expected to be completed by 2007...A new congressionally mandated report by The Aerospace Corp. estimates that if the project continues on Congress‘ current funding schedule of $345 million per year, its life cycle costs will skyrocket to more than $114 billion.”

--As Autumn Hanna, a senior program director at Taxpayers for Common Sense, put it, MOX has “become one of those pet projects for members and senators that are pushing for their home states and are unwilling to look at other options because there is so much money coming in to their state.” Full story at The Washington Times. http://bit.ly/1KqjL9n

Quick Hits:

--“How nuclear realists falsely frame the nuclear weapons debate” by Ward Wilson for The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/1ImlxLn

--“Iran and U.S. cut deal on new diplomatic offices in Washington, Tehran,” by Al Kamen in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1PuF0s3

--“Germany’s Envoy to U.S. Sees No Good Alternative to Nuclear Deal,” by Ann Sanner, Associated Press. http://bit.ly/1Kq9U3o

--“Egypt’s About Face Hurts Zone Prospects,” by Kelsey Davenport for Arms Control Now. http://bit.ly/1EUQSRo

Events:

--“An Iran Nuclear Deal: Too Big to Fail?” featuring Peter Beinart, Suzanne DiMaggio, Ali Vaez and Fred Kaplan. May 11th from 6:30-8:15pm at Civic Hall in New York. http://bit.ly/1JehLk5

--Arms Control Association annual meeting, featuring keynotes Alexander Kmett, Austrian Director of Arms Control, Nonproliferation and Disarmament, and Colin Kahl, National Security Advisor to the Vice President. May 14th from 9:00-2:30pm at Carnegie. http://bit.ly/1dsD8V0

--”Deterrent Options for the Future,” remarks by Linton Brooks, former NNSA Administrator, at the Huessy Congressional breakfast series. May 19th from 8:00-9:00am at the Capitol Hill Club. http://conta.cc/1DKftpf

--“Bursting the Plutonium Bubble: How Utopian Communities Made Dystopian Nuclear Landscapes,” featuring historian Kate Brown. May 18th from 4:00-5:00pm at the Wilson Center. http://bit.ly/1FKAPHT