Iran Deal Opens Opportunities for Regional Stability

Beyond the nuclear deal - “President Obama’s meeting with Arab leaders this week is an opportunity to reassure the deeply skeptical Gulf states that America’s engagement and probable nuclear deal with Iran is not a threat but an opportunity for regional stability,” writes The New York Times editorial board.

--“If the nuclear deal is completed, the administration would try to encourage Iran to play a more constructive role in Syria. Many are skeptical that this will produce results, but testing the possibility of expanded cooperation beyond the nuclear deal is certainly worth the effort.” http://nyti.ms/1cIJbVb

Tweet - @KelseyDav: An #IranDeal is good for the region - King's absence from U.S. summit shows Saudi displeasure over Iran push http://reut.rs/1KAGtvw

North Korean test launch - North Korea stated that it successfully test fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile Saturday. However, analysts note that North Korea remains years away from developing a launch system that can threaten the U.S.

--“Before it can head toward its target on an arched trajectory, an SLBM must be ejected and travel to the sea's surface, which is what North Korea appears to have done. The missile traveled only about 150 meters, the South Korean official said. [Yang Uk, a policy advisor to the South Korean Navy] said the system was likely years away from deployment because North Korean submarines were not well enough equipped to manage the radar and tracking systems required to guide a missile to its target,” reports Reuters. http://reut.rs/1zRXMYs

China and North Korea - China’s new regional assertiveness in Asia could make it an effective partner in curbing North Korea’s nuclear program, argues the editorial board of The Washington Post.

--“Certainly, China — and only China — has the leverage to halt North Korea’s steady climb to becoming a nuclear power,” writes the Post. http://wapo.st/1EtfX3y

--See Also: “The Real Reason Asia Should Fear South Korea’s Sub-Launched Missiles,” by Robert E. Kelley for The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1Rvc6fl

India and Pakistan - Despite claims by both Indian and Pakistani military officials that their countries’ nuclear arsenals are sufficient for deterrence, both countries are continuing to increase their stockpiles. According to Stimson Center fellows Beenish Altaf and Tanvi Kulkarni, both countries must define their strategic interests to avoid an unending arms race.

--“The pursuit of credible minimum deterrence risks an arms race that may go unchecked unless New Delhi and Islamabad can articulate their position on what they view as nuclear deterrence stability in South Asia,” they write. Full story here: http://bit.ly/1JBVihf

Tweet - @NIACouncil: 14 Steps to Understanding What's Going on with the #IranTalks http://bit.ly/1H8PyOl #IranDeal #Vote4Peace

123 with China - President Obama has quietly notified Congress that he intends to renew a nuclear cooperation agreement with China, The Washington Post reports. Renewing the agreement would allow China to the ability to import U.S. nuclear material, equipment and technology, all subject to specific export licensing and nonproliferation controls.

--The “123 agreement” has raised concerns amongst some nonproliferation analysts that China could potentially be a source for the proliferation of nuclear materials or technology. White House officials disagree. As one senior administration official put it, no nuclear accord “would allow another country with lower levels of proliferation controls to step in and fill that void.“ Without it, he added, “we would be less able to press the Chinese to do better on this front.” Full story from Steven Mufson. http://wapo.st/1PBDNz8

Iran letter - 150 House Democrats wrote a letter to President Obama urging him to pursue all diplomatic avenues with Iran before resorting to additional sanctions, a strong indication that Democrats have enough numbers to sustain a Presidential veto if Republicans try to vote down legislation approving the Iran Deal.

--However, some Democrats, such as minority whip Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) and Democratic caucus vice-chair Rep. Joe Crowley (D-NY), declined to sign the letter. Both Democratic leaders reiterated support for a diplomatic agreement with Iran without specifying their reasons for not signing the letter. Mike Lillis of The Hill has the story. http://bit.ly/1H9KSVP

Quick Hits:

--“In Iran Talks, It’s the Devil You Know,” by H.D.S. Greenway for The Boston Globe. http://bit.ly/1IwMMRZ

--“Former U.S. Government Employee Attempted to Steal Nuclear Secrets: Justice Department,” by Lisa Lambert for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1K1OL2E

--“29 Years After Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster, Life Slowly Returns to Normal,” by Nolan Peterson for The Daily Signal. http://dailysign.al/1PdQNA5

--“Sabotage Conviction Overturned Against Nun, Fellow Activists,” from the AP. http://nyti.ms/1cpzSsJ