Not Letting a Perfect Deal be the Enemy of a Good Iran Deal

Iran deal myths - “In the messy world of nuclear nonproliferation, the perfect can be the enemy of the good. Insisting on a perfect deal could be a recipe for having no deal at all — with devastating consequences all around,” former White House Middle East advisor Philip Gordon writes in Politico Magazine. “Rejecting an imperfect deal can result in no deal at all. And no deal at all, in the most relevant recent case, resulted in a new, and very dangerous, nuclear weapons state.”

--“The Lausanne arrangement is not perfect, but it is far better than any realistic alternative, and much more comprehensive than the North Korea framework,” Gordon adds. “Iran’s leadership is arguably more rational [than North Korea’s] and susceptible to public pressure to improve the economy… and Iran does not yet have enough nuclear material for a weapon. Congress should keep these differences in mind as it considers whether to support a nuclear deal with Iran.” http://politi.co/1J9GEj2

Tweet - @ReThinkDefense: Experts agree, there is no better #IranDeal Pillar http://reut.rs/17Z6Ux5, Berger http://politi.co/1K4gNup, Gordon http://politi.co/1J9GEj2

Iran talks resume - Representatives from Iran and the P5+1 nations resume negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program in Vienna today. The four-day talks are the third round since the framework agreement was announced on April 2, and negotiators are confident a final agreement will be reached before the June 30 deadline.

--Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that significant progress has been made on a final agreement. Araghchi also added that while the timetable on sanctions removal needs to be resolved, “we think that we can do that even before the [June 30] deadline.” http://bit.ly/1KZy9Gt

Iran poll - A new AP-GK poll finds that 54% of respondents support a comprehensive deal between Iran and the P5+1 over its nuclear program. The poll also finds that respondents generally are skeptical that Iran will follow through with its end of the bargain. Full poll results here. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1ATZS5q

North Korean nuclear diplomacy - “It is time to put North Korea back on the front burner of nuclear diplomacy,” writes Sharon Squassoni of CSIS. With the recent news of North Korea’s submarine-launched ballistic missile test and projections that it could double its nuclear warheads from 20 to 40 next year, Squassoni argues that now is the right time for the international community to restart negotiations with North Korea.

--“The fact that China may be increasingly alarmed about North Korean developments should work to the West’s advantage in diplomacy. And reining in North Korea’s nuclear developments may be one area for modest U.S.-Russian collaboration to everyone’s benefit,” Squassoni writes. Full article at Reuters. http://reut.rs/1F4FBhv

Tweet - @MaloneySuzanne: Iran: The danger of politicized intelligence after a nuclear deal http://t.co/umJ0XuLoYx

Nuclear cruise missile - “When it comes to deterring [major threats from states like Russia or China], the United States is far ahead in major conventional and nuclear weapons, while all three countries are building more advanced ones. Do we need them all?” asks Walter Pincus of The Washington Post’s.

--Pincus looks into the defense budget, the costs of new weapons systems and the questions the need for a new nuclear cruise missile. Full article here. http://wapo.st/1cNCp0G

Saudi summit absence - Saudi King Salman will not attend President Obama’s summit of Arab Leader at Camp David, but his advisors said it was a scheduling conflict rather than a snub, reports Jim Michaels for USA Today.

--“We have no doubt whatsoever about America's commitment to the security of Saudi Arabia,” said Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir. King Salman’s absence comes amid speculation that the nuclear deal with Iran could signal a rapprochement between the U.S. and Iran, Saudi Arabia’s regional rival. http://usat.ly/1QFvQLO

China deal - U.S. energy and national security officials briefed key members of Congress on the Obama administration’s proposed 30 year extension of a nuclear cooperation agreement with China. Congress has a 90 days to review the deal and act, otherwise the agreement automatically enters into force. VOA has the story. http://bit.ly/1zXBsNz

Quick Hits:

--“Iran: The Deal on the Deal,” by Elizabeth Drew for The New York Review of Books. http://bit.ly/1csIgHK

--“Middle East nuclear weapons ban proposal stumbles at U.N.” by Louis Charbonneau of Reuters. http://yhoo.it/1Fbodsw

--“Tighten the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Action Plan,” by Thomas F. McInerny for The Huffington Post. http://huff.to/1zWb5qM

Events:

--Arms Control Association annual meeting, featuring keynotes Alexander Kmett, Austrian Director of Arms Control, Nonproliferation and Disarmament, and Colin Kahl, National Security Advisor to the Vice President. May 14th from 9:00-2:30pm at Carnegie. http://bit.ly/1dsD8V0

--P5+1 and Iran continue negotiations on an agreement on Iran's nuclear program. May 15th, Vienna.

--“Travels with John Kerry: the Lausanne Accord with Iran and its Implications for the Middle East,” featuring Michael Gordon of The New York Times. May 18th from 12:15-1:45pm, Harvard University, Belfer Center Library. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1E2c6ci

--“Bursting the Plutonium Bubble: How Utopian Communities Made Dystopian Nuclear Landscapes,” featuring historian Kate Brown. May 18th from 4:00-5:00pm at the Wilson Center. http://bit.ly/1FKAPHT

--“Deterrent Options for the Future,” remarks by Linton Brooks, former NNSA Administrator, at the Huessy Congressional breakfast series. May 19th from 8:00-9:00am at the Capitol Hill Club. http://conta.cc/1DKftpf

Dessert:

Get crackin’ - If the Iran nuke deal goes into effect, trade barriers will tumble and Iranian pistachios will again be available in the United States — exposing California farmers to competition and possibly threatening those windfall profits being brandished,” warns Tom Philpott for Grist. http://bit.ly/1G2UmDu