Assassinations and Negotiations

On the radar: 4th Iranian scientist killed; Clinton: overall goal remains negotiated solution; Nuclear Security Index; Practical and moral problems with assassinations; 5 minutes to midnight; Enough HEU for 60,000 weapons; Inaccurate Iran reporting; Senators’ letter on oil embargo; and Iran’s empty kickball team.

January 11, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Iranian scientists attacked - Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, an Iranian university professor and supervisor at Natanz, has been killed in a bomb blast, bringing the total number of attacks against Iranian scientists to four. Iran attributes the assassinations to the US and Israel. The New York Times reports. http://owl.li/8pL7R

Headline/Byline of the week - “The North Korea-ification of Iran: How the Islamic Republic and its many antagonists perpetuate a stand-off that's bad for everyone and nobody wants.” by Max Fisher in The Atlantic. http://owl.li/8pJ1I

Clinton on Iran - Iran’s decision to enrich uranium to 20% is “troubling,” Secretary of State Clinton says. Clinton called on Tehran to halt uranium enrichment and return to P5+1 talks "prepared to engage seriously on its nuclear program," and added “Our overall goal remains a comprehensive, negotiated solution." From Reuters. http://owl.li/8pJgk

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Nuclear Materials Security Index - the Nuclear Threat Initiative just launched its new Security Index - “a first-of-its-kind public baseline assessment of the status of nuclear materials security conditions in 176 countries.” The Index shows a lack of global consensus on the most important matters for nuclear security and recommends “actions to hold countries accountable, increase transparency and benchmark progress.”

--Check out the website and download the report at http://www.ntiindex.org/.

On assassinating scientists - Iran's nuclear scientists are being targeted for assassination as a way to delay Iran’s program. The disadvantages of this approach are many, writes William Tobey in The Bulletin.

--”Assassinations [could] inspire retaliation, reduce the likelihood of a diplomatic solution, and increase the difficulties international regulators face in monitoring a covert nuclear program. In the abstract, moral and legal strictures also weigh against such assassination efforts.” (Paywall) http://owl.li/8pJaa

It is 5 minutes to midnight - Yesterday, the Doomsday Clock ticked forward one minute. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists said the change is largely because world leaders have stalled or failed to take measures to reduce the nuclear threat. http://owl.li/8pJco

1440 tons of HEU - The International Panel on Fissile Materials has published its 2011 edition of the Global Fissile Material Report. The report provides estimates for global stockpiles of fissile materials and production capacities.

--Big numbers: There is about 1440 tons of Highly Enriched Uranium in the world - enough for more than 60,000 simple nuclear weapons. There is about 495 tons of separated plutonium. http://owl.li/8pJ7n

Editors take note - There has been a spate of Iran journalism that got ahead of the facts. Last month, The Washington Post’s ombudsman responded to reader complaints about an inaccurate headline, saying Iran had a full nuclear weapons program, and warned the Post not to “play into the hands of those seeking further confrontation with Iran.” Last week, The New York Times public editor responded to a similar error in his paper’s reporting on Iran. http://owl.li/8pJ4U

--Yesterday, the Post had to issue a 180° reversal on a story that inaccurately described the goal of sanctions against Iran, intended to compel the regime to cooperate with its nuclear program, as purely for regime collapse.

--Early Warning perspective: As tensions with Iran heighten and belligerent rhetoric gets louder, the stakes for journalistic accuracy similarly increase. Be careful out there.

Diplo tweet - @USAmbNATO Ivo Daalder: “Looking 4ward to work w/ new USAmb to Russia, Mike McFaul, to strengthen #NATO-#Russia relations.”

Senate supports EU sanctions - “A bipartisan group of eight senators are urging the European Union to level an oil embargo on Iran, while back in Washington both parties are preparing for another push on further Iran sanctions legislation.” Josh Rogin reports. http://owl.li/8pIWi

Choosing teams - “If you were choosing sides for an international game of kick-ball, you would not choose the side with Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela. You'd pick the side with Europe and other American allies.” MIT’s Jim Walsh puts Ahmadinejad's tour of Latin America into context in an interview with Ploughshares Fund. http://owl.li/8pIYR