Exit Ramps and the Pressure Track

On the radar: The other half of the dual-track; New Bomber has budget momentum; Intel as a back channel; Back to the table with Russia; Knocking options off the table; Transparency’s practical limits; Pushing Iran’s buttons; and the Year of the B-52H.

Crisis defusing - The U.S. and Iran have pursued policies that increase pressure/threats while offering negotiations. But these “policies have resulted in the prospect of a war that would be disastrous to all. What we need right now is a crisis exit ramp. Perhaps this is the moment to explore the negotiating track that both sides say they prefer,” writes Gary Sick for CNN.

--”A good place to begin would be the original U.S. offer to swap 20%-enriched fuel plates, to be used in Iran's research reactor, for Iranian enriched uranium,” writes Sick. http://owl.li/8srTp

Budgets and the bomber - Not only was the new bomber the only program specifically mentioned in the new defense strategy, it also got a 51% increase in R&D funding from the House Appropriations Committee. “Clearly some motivation is propelling the bomber program forward even in this austere budget environment...that motivation probably isn’t just the future strategic environment,” writes Stimson Center’s Matthew Leatherman. http://owl.li/8srX1

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An intelligent back channel - “The United States and Iran should explore the possibility of direct contact through the sort of back channel that nations use to communicate urgent messages — namely, their intelligence services,” writes David Ignatius for The Washington Post.

--Ignatius nominates CIA chief Gen. David Patraeus and Gen. Qassem Suleimani, the head of Iran’s Quds Force. While Suleimani is an unsavory character, argues Ignatius, his position as head of Iran’s most powerful intelligence network positions him as an authoritative intermediary to Khamenei - a perennial problem for engagement. http://owl.li/8srZe

Back to the table - “We want to get back to the table with the Russians both on strategic and non-strategic, deployed and non-deployed. That means everything...We need the elections can pass so that both sides can get back to the table," said Under Secretary of State Ellen Tauscher.

--Tauscher also expressed optimism that progress could be made on a missile defense agreement with Russia after its upcoming elections conclude. Josh Rogin has the story. http://owl.li/8ss1w

Event - US-Israel and Iran: Looming Military Confrontation? a briefing from the Atlantic Council’s Iran Task Force takes places Tuesday the 17th at 3. Event details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/8ss4H

Averting disaster, easing tensions - “A military strike on the nuclear facilities would be a disaster...There is another option besides force: negotiations with the United States and other major powers over curbing Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for ending sanctions and diplomatic isolation.” Editorial from The New York Times. http://owl.li/8ssl9

Early Warning question - Congress has passed a resolution that blocks contact between U.S. and Iranian diplomats. Now, Sens. Graham and Lieberman plan to introduce a resolution opposing strategies to contain Iran. If Congress wants to voluntarily constrain U.S. options for diplomacy and containment, then what option of all the ones on the table are some advocating by exclusion? http://owl.li/8ssj9

Transparency is tough - The Nuclear Threat Initiative has published a remarkable study that ranks countries by their commitment to nuclear security. “Transparency is a good cause, but a tall order, and the NTI authors got a taste of this when they approached countries for information. Iran (rank: 30 of 32) and North Korea (rank: 32) were asked to verify what the researchers had found. They didn't answer,” writes David Hoffman at Foreign Policy. http://owl.li/8ssfx

Iranian cooperation - Iran, expecting a visit from IAEA inspectors at the end of the month, says it’s ready to answer clear up “any ambiguities" about its nuclear program. Western officials are skeptical, however; they believe Iran’s willingness to cooperate may be a stall tactic. Fredrick Dahl reports. http://owl.li/8sse6

The wrong tack with Iran - “If Washington wants to convince Iran to see things its way, it should stop pushing all the buttons that make Iran more likely to lash out,” writes Patrick Disney. “The brief delay gained by these covert efforts could come at the cost of cementing Iran’s determination to obtain nuclear weapons.” http://owl.li/8ssbb

The year of the B-52 - Fifty years ago yesterday, a B-52H crew broke 11 non-stop distance and course-speed records in a test run of its newest model of strategic bombers. Marking the 50th anniversary of that achievement and the last delivery of a B-52H to Minot AFB, the Air Force has made 2012 the “Year of the B-52.” http://owl.li/8ss8O