Policy Change and Budget Pressure Converging

On the radar: Outlook for the nuclear force; Sec. Cohen on Iran; Tauscher stepping back; a Diplomatic solution with Iran; ISIS on Iran; Defense budget roll out; When a “cut” isn’t a cut; Persian irrelevance; and Nuclear stability in South Asia.

January 26, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Policy change and budget pressure - The U.S. is trying to modernize the nuclear triad during a time of budget austerity, while updating policies on the required size and structure of the nuclear force. These drivers are likely to produce significant changes for U.S. nuclear policy. In a new article for Arms Control Today, nuclear analyst Amy Woolf explains these developments and gives an outlook for each leg of the nuclear triad.

“If [the Pentagon’s study of how to implement the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review] does not recommend significant changes in the size and structure of the U.S. nuclear arsenal, budget cuts that delay or scale back the modernization programs could force the same result. Indeed, these budget-driven changes in nuclear strategy and operations could be more extensive than those recommended by the Pentagon study,” writes Woolf. http://owl.li/8HjFT

Consequences - “Although Israel remains on the front line of nightmare scenarios, it’s important to be mindful that it is not the only nation that would face both the predictable and untoward consequences of a military attack against Iran,” writes former Secretary of Defense Bill Cohen, a Ploughshares Fund Advisory Board member.

--Cohen describes the dangers of a preemptive unilateral strike: “It would probably succeed in rallying virtually all of the Iranian people to the defense of their country. Any hope that the West might hold for the ripening of Iran’s Green Revolution would quickly dissipate, as Iranian citizens would turn red with hatred for those who supported such an attack.” http://owl.li/8HjTw

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Tauscher - Under Secretary of State Ellen Tauscher is stepping down from her current position as State’s top arms control official and shifting into a part-time role as State’s “special envoy for strategic stability and missile defense.” Josh Rogin has the story. http://owl.li/8HjJv

Charting a Diplomatic Path - As tensions rise and the risks of war with Iran increase, developing a diplomatic agreement is even more important, writes Peter Crail in a new ACA issue brief. Crail outlines proposals and confidence building measures for a long-term solution. http://owl.li/8Hk4P

Iran’s nuclear timeline - “Iran is unlikely to move toward building a nuclear weapon this year because it does not yet have the capability to produce enough weapon-grade uranium,” reports Reuters about a draft report by the Institute for Science and International Security.

--”U.S. officials say Iran has not made the decision to build a nuclear weapon and that Iranian leaders haven't made the decision because they have to weigh the cost and benefits of building a nuclear weapon.” http://owl.li/8HkFI

First budget details - Defense Secretary Panetta and JCS Chair Gen. Dempsey will reveal the first details of what the new strategy means for defense budgets in a press briefing at 2pm today. Watch live here: http://www.pentagonchannel.mil/

--The Pentagon’s request for 2013 is $525 billion, down $6 billion from the 2012 budget. Details on the numbers and expected cuts from The Wall Street Journal. http://owl.li/8HjzG

Defense budget - Tweets Joe @Cirincione: “Jeff Smith punctures the hot air balloons on defense spending http://owl.li/8Hlqx @rjsmithcpi @iWatch”

--Takeaways from Jeff Smith’s article: Defense spending plans do not actually “cut” the budget; “Sequestration is a threat, not a promise;” and defense spending will remain vulnerable to “real cuts.”

The Persian irrelevance for the Arab Spring - “Although it has been fashionable to describe Iran's growing power in the Middle East, actual events suggest the opposite. Iran's economy is reeling under sanctions, and the regime's nuclear activities and saber-rattling increasingly mark it as a pariah state. And as the Arab Spring marches on, Iran will find itself falling further behind,” writes Colin Kahl in Foreign Policy. http://owl.li/8HjP7

India-Pakistan stability - The existence of [ambiguities in nuclear doctrines], a security dilemma and deep mistrust of each other — combined with the lack of a clear civilian control of nuclear weapons in Pakistan — means nothing short of a recipe for disaster for the people of [India and Pakistan].

--”There is, therefore, need to start talking about nuclear issues with far more seriousness and urgency along the lines enshrined in the Lahore Declaration.” http://owl.li/8Hkdr