Iranian Public Turning Against Nuclear Program

On the radar: Costs outweighing national pride; North Korea’s planned launch; the Next bomber and Augustine’s Law; U.S., Israeli intel on Iran; Posturing hits at the pump; Soviet nukes and lessons learned; Not-so-smart nonpro tradeoffs; and Radioactive toothpaste.

March 19, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Changing Iranian opinion - “There seems to have been a significant drop in Iranian support for a nuclear energy program,” writes Dina Esfandiary at The Atlantic. Given the economic strain put upon the daily lives of Iranians, “Many Iranians now consider pursuit of the nuclear program as too costly.”

The drop in public support presents two opportunities for the West, writes Esfandiary: 1) playing the waiting game until public opinion of the nuclear program drops so low that the Iranian regime alters course, or 2) use the drop in support to drive a wedge between the Iranian people and the regime. http://owl.li/9K1OZ

Nork Rocket - North Korea’s planned “space” launch in April would undercut the North’s recent deal with the United States. It’s unclear if the North will actually laanch a rocket “or if it is part of its routine of keeping negotiators off balance,” writes David Wright at All Things Nuclear.

--If the rocket flies, North Korea has said it will use its new Tongch’ang-dong launch site, allowing the rocket to avoid overflying Japan. “A launch would help [the North] test its rocket engines, guidance, and staging technology.” http://owl.li/9K1Qe

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Nowruz wishes - Secretary Clinton’s Nowruz message is available here. http://owl.li/9K1Ss

Question, Answer & Analysis - Q - Defense Writers Group: “Given what we’ve seen in Air Force acquisitions, how can the Air Force be confident that that’s actually going to be what the plane will cost at the end of the day?“

--A - Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz: “If it doesn’t, we don’t get a program. That was the guidance of the Secretary of Defense. So either deliver or you’re out of there essentially was Bob Gates’ guidance. I get it. Loud and clear. That guidance still pertains.”

--Analysis: “In other words, this bomber either is an exception to Augustine’s Law, or it’s canceled. And, if that’s not bold enough, it’s $550 million per-unit cost plan is just one-fourth that of our last bomber procurement, the $2 billion per-unit B-2,” writes Matt Leatherman at The Will and the Wallet. http://owl.li/9K1Vs

Assessing intel on Iran - Analyzing intelligence on Iran’s nuclear program is tricky, as new evidence prompts frequent reviews. But U.S. intel agencies stand by their earlier assessment that Iran has not yet decided to build a bomb.

--The Israeli IC agrees. “There is not a lot of dispute between the U.S. and Israeli intelligence communities on the facts,” a former senior American intelligence official told The New York Times’ James Risen. http://owl.li/9K1WG

Iran worries and the oil market - “The threat of military action against Iran, the world's fifth largest oil exporter, has unnerved energy markets and sent oil prices soaring, with Brent nearly 17 percent higher since the start of the year,” reports Reuters. Brent crude is trading around $125 a barrel. http://owl.li/9K1Y8

What happened to the Soviet nukes? - “The denuclearization of fourteen former Soviet states... demonstrates most vividly how effective ambitious nuclear diplomacy can and should be at a time when the international community struggles to prevent a meltdown of the global nuclear order undermined by the nuclear programs of North Korea and Iran,” writes Graham Allison in a new Belfer Center report.

-- Read the full report, “What Happened to the Soviet Superpower’s Nuclear Arsenal? Clues for the Nuclear Security Summit,” here. (pdf) http://owl.li/9K20u

Nonproliferation budget analysis - Funds were cut in the 2013 budget for two key nonproliferation programs - the Global Threat Reduction Initiative and the International Materials Protection and Cooperation. Meanwhile, funds for the controversial Mixed Oxide fuel program increased, notes Kingston Reif at Nukes of Hazard.

--”It's difficult to conclude that NNSA struck the right balance within the Defense Nuclear nonproliferation account.” http://owl.li/9K225

Tweet - @MarkThompson_DC: “Air Force launches a new course to help its personnel keep track of their nuclear weapons. On Battleland, at ti.me/FQ1Nyk”

Questions on Iran and Syria - The New York Times’ Bill Keller asks, “What are the right questions the president should ask — and we as his employers should ask — when deciding whether going to war is (a) justified and (b) worth it?” http://owl.li/9K24u

Quote - “What’s really gained by doing an overt strike? And the answer is, it’s never good. The outcomes are just not good,” Lt. Gen. David Fridovich, former deputy commander of U.S. Special Operations Command, told The Jerusalem Post. http://owl.li/9K25V

12 things “enhanced” with radiation - There was a time when radiation was trendy, safe, and included in homeopathic remedies. Today, we know better. Buzzfeed has 12 things from eras when we didn’t - including radioactive drinking water, kids’ toys, and chocolates. http://owl.li/9K26Y