Burying the Nuclear Threat

On the radar: Fissile cleanout under the Steppe; Tracking the spoil; MOX lives, despite concerns; Kristensen on NSNW; Plan B for CMRR; About that 3rd site; GCC less cooperative on BMD; China on nuclear cuts; a Realists’ woulda coulda shoulda; and a Broken offense-defense relationship.

May 1, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Securing Kazakh tunnels - When the Soviet Union collapsed, it left behind fissile materials in testing tunnels in Kazakhstan. These materials became a proliferation threat when seals on the tunnels broke and scavengers penetrated the tunnels. So, in 2005, the U.S. began a program that William Tobey in Foreign Policy calls “one of the greatest nonproliferation stories never told.”

--The U.S., Russia and Kazakhstan began a complex mining operation - through brutal winters and scorching summers - to more permanently seal off the test tunnels. The $150 million program - a tiny amount by defense standards - secured enough material for a handful of nuclear weapons. http://owl.li/aD3G7

Tweet - @FMWG: Congressional Appropriators Add Funding for #Nuclear #Terrorism Prevention: http://bit.ly/IoYgun

Images of N. Korea’s test site - The most recent commercial satellite imagery available of North Korea’s nuclear test facility (from April 18) shows evidence that the North is proceeding as if ready to test. The photos do not give indications of if or when such a test might occur. 38 North has the photos and the explanations. http://owl.li/aD3Ea

Tweet - Joe @cirincione: If you follow defense issues, you must read Walter Pincus today. http://owl.li/aD3my

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MOX questions - Senate appropriators followed their House counterparts in questioning mismanagement of the mixed oxide fuel project at the Savannah River Site. The Senate report of the FY13 funding bill notes that NNSA “has failed to provide a sufficient justification” for increasing operating costs (now $500 million per year) and expresses concern that $700 million was spent on the Pit Disassembly Facility, later cancelled.

--Despite concerns, both the House and the Senate fully funded $389 million in MOX construction costs. Rob Pavey reports for The Augusta Chronicle. http://owl.li/aD3Co

Event - A briefing with Hans Kristensen Robert Norris of the Federation of American Scientists for the release of their report on non-strategic nuclear weapons. Thursday the 4th, 2-3pm, in the Senate Russell Building Room 385. RSVP to RSVP@fas.org.

After CMRR - An alternative to the CMRR plan is in the works at NNSA, reports John Severance of the LA Monitor. Details are uncertain, but the plan will likely include ending CMRR and phasing out the current Chemistry and Metallurgy Research building, increasing use of the Radiological Laboratory/Utility/Office Building, and exploring other options at existing facilities.

--Trading CMRR for more efficient alternatives is the right choice, says Greg Mello of the Los Alamos Study Group, noting that the $160 million appropriated for upgrading existing plutonium facilities is about the same as one year of operating costs for CMRR. http://owl.li/aD3xa

Cross Czech-ing the 3rd site - There’s a lot of election season finger pointing about the Obama administration’s cancellation of the “3rd site” in the Czech Republic in 2009. Kingston Reif at Nukes of Hazard throws a cold bucket of facts on such claims.

--Quoted: “And let's be blunt: The third site in Europe was not going to happen, because the Czech government wouldn't approve the radar....And so if it was going to happen at all, it would've taken years longer [than the Phased Adaptive Approach] and we still hadn't negotiated the required agreements with the Poles in terms of the interceptors,” said former Secretary Robert Gates. http://owl.li/aD3vp

GCC disagreement over missile defense - The six Arab states in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are considering a cooperative missile defense system (with Washington’s urging) to counter any strike by Iran. However, the neighborhood rivals can’t agree on the fundamentals of a system - where to put the command center and how to control it. Reuters has the story. http://owl.li/aD3tR

Israeli split on strikes - Several former top officials in Israel’s security establishment have recently criticized the call for strikes on Iran. This showed deep misgivings in Israel about the consequences of a military strike on Iran, reports ABC News. http://owl.li/aD3sD

--Background: “The Israeli Generals Revolt” by Joel Rubin in The Huffington Post. http://owl.li/aD3rq

Quote - As countries with (the) largest nuclear arsenals, U.S. and Russia should continue to make drastic reductions in their nuclear arsenals in a verifiable and irreversible manner," said the Chinese representative at the NPT PrepCom. "Other nuclear weapon states, when conditions are ripe, should also join the multilateral negotiations on nuclear disarmament." http://owl.li/aD3yU

Event - “The Path to Lower Nuclear Numbers?” Jon Wolfsthal at the Wilson Center, Friday the 4th at noon. Details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/aBADK

Realism and nuclear policy - “A more sensible approach to nuclear weapons.” That’s one of Stephen Walt’s top ten list of what would have happened if realists had been in charge for the past couple of decades.

--“Realists appreciate the deterrent value of nuclear weapons and believe complete disarmament is impractical, but they would have been much bolder in reducing the U.S. arsenal and would have focused more attention on securing nuclear materials world-wide.” http://owl.li/aD3pF

Department of Great Headlines - “Congress Wants Broken Laser to Zap North Korea’s Broken Missiles” by Noah Shachtman of Danger Room. http://owl.li/aD3nP