On the radar: Death of a dictator; Stability a concern; Speculation on the power transition; Early Warning review; McFaul confirmed; Complication of an Iran embargo; Contemplating strikes; 2012 Nuclear spending bill; Minot inspected; and Farewell to the last B-52 designer.

December 19, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Kim Jong-il - The North Korean leader died of a heart attack at age 69. He leaves behind at least 3 sons, 1 daughter, a small nuclear arsenal, and a starving nation of 24 million. http://owl.li/8429w

Post-Kim missile test - ”And no sooner did Kim Jong-il pass from the earth than his military practiced the belligerence Kim preached: it test-fired a missile. Subtle,” writes Spencer Ackermann for Danger Room. The short-range missile was fired into the sea, and it seems that the test was planned in advance. http://owl.li/840p0

Succession - Kim Jong-il’s third son, Kim Jong-Un, has been put in line to be the new leader of North Korea. It is unclear how such a power transition might take place and if it will be a stable one.

--”If [Kim Jong-Un] really is in complete control, the reports on his intelligence suggest he will stumble, at which points military leaders worried about the country's stability may be tempted to intervene. If, however, his power is less total, then that will invite jockeying between political and military leaders for influence, something that North Korea's tightly regimented political system was never made to account for,” writes Max Fisher at The Atlantic. http://owl.li/840tU

Admin concern - ““There’s concern that Kim Jong-Un may now try to prove himself,” a senior government official told ABC’s Jake Tapper. “He’s young, inexperienced, brash and untested. And while he had the support of his father, it’s unclear if he has the respect of his generals.”

--”Senior White House officials say the concern about the North Korean military making a provocative action is less about the next few weeks – a state funeral is scheduled for December 28 – but the next few months, when Kim Jung-Un has to solidify his power base.” http://owl.li/840r5

Tweet - CFR’s @MicahZenko: “A must read today: "Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea," by Paul Stares + Joel Witt. http://on.cfr.org/sZ4Soy”

Outlook for nuclear talks - “In the past five months, the diplomatic track has yielded little in the way of concrete results, but it has, at least, gathered some momentum...But with Kim Jong Il's death, negotiations with the U.S.— which retains about 28,000 troops across the border in South Korea — are likely to be put on hold, as the North enters mourning for the Dear Leader, and a period of uncertainty.” AP reports. http://owl.li/842xZ

Understatement - “He will not be missed,” said Mitt Romney of Kim Jong-il. http://owl.li/840wg

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Early Warning review - These first four months of publishing Early Warning have been amazing. As 2011 draws to a close, here is a look back at the best in nuclear news.

--Most read editions of Early Warning: 1) Next Steps for Tactical Reductions; 2) The Bloated Nuclear Weapons Budget; 3) Panetta Warns of Consequences of Striking Iran; 4) Affordability and the Nuclear Budget; 5) Iran Sanctions Advance in House.

McFaul confirmed - The Senate on Saturday confirmed Michael McFaul to be U.S. ambassador to Moscow. http://owl.li/840zF

Embargoing Iranian oil - “The Obama administration, its European allies and key Arab states are intensifying discussions on how to maintain stability in the global energy markets in a possible precursor to a formal embargo on Iran's oil exports and its central bank,” reports the Wall Street Journal.

--Oil price hikes would occur under such an embargo on Iran’s oil exports, unless other oil exporters increase production to offset Iran’s decreased exports. It is unclear if oil exporters have the capacity. Officials involved in the discussion recognize that China, India and other major developing countries are unlikely to abide by an oil embargo. http://owl.li/840BJ

Contemplating An Israeli Strike Against Iran - How might Iran respond to an Israeli strike? Daniel Wagner and Michael Doyle examine a range of scenarios, and conclude “it is reasonable to believe that Iran will conduct only controlled retaliation.” Bottom line: ”Implications for the Gulf are uncertain, but a doomsday scenario seems unlikely.” http://owl.li/840I0

2012 spending bill - The 2012 appropriations bill, passed by the Senate Saturday morning, includes $11.07 billion for NNSA - a 6% cut from the request, but a 5% increase over last year. The bill protects important nuclear materials security and nonproliferation programs, while starting to reining in weapons spending. Analysis from the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation. http://owl.li/840Km

Minot inspected - This month, Russian inspectors visited Minot AFB to verify its bomber data under the New START treaty. The 5th Bomb Wing had 24 hours to prep for the inspection. “It sounds like a pain in the neck for Minot airmen, but the Air Force’s nuke bosses say they really like this sort of thing,” reports Philip Ewing at DoD Buzz. http://owl.li/840Ed

The last B-52 designer - Holden Withington, the last of the B-52 bomber’s living designers, has passed away. On a weekend in 1948, Withington was one of 6 designers who holed up in a Dayton hotel suite with hobby supplies, to emerge with a 14-inch model and 33-page proposal for the iconic B-52 bomber. http://owl.li/840Gi